Azil Sürecinde Trump’ın OPEC Üzerindeki Etki Gücünün Değerlendirilmesi

Bulend Aydin Ertekin

Araştırma Makalesi

During the Impeachment Process, the Evaluation of the Decrease of the Influence of Trump's Power On OPEC

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 51 - 65, 30.06.2020

Bulend Aydin Ertekin

Öz

Prior to the impeachment process in the US Congress, Trump's informal statements on social media affected the oil markets, and OPEC responded positively to Trump's appeals and propositions for lower oil prices. However, developments indicate that Trump's influence on OPEC decisions has diminished during the dismissal process. In this period, OPEC's joint action with Russia at the December 6, 2019, Vienna meeting independently of Trump and the decision to reduce oil production are examples. This study aims to evaluate the power of influence on OPEC decisions in Trump's dismissal process. For this purpose, data and analysis supporting the assumptions of the study were included for the period when Trump's dismissal process was on the agenda of the US Congress. As a result of the study, it seems that OPEC member countries have started to make more independent decisions that are far from Trump's intervention, in contrast to the first years when Trump was elected president, in order to protect their national interests despite the deep bilateral cooperation with the USA. The time will show whether this

situation will continue or not.

Anahtar Kelimeler

OPEC, Oil Prices, Trade War, USA, Impeachment process

Kaynakça

Abramson, A., & Elliott, P. (December 19,2019). Democrats Have Impeached Trump in the House. Now the Battle Will Intensify. Time: https://time.com/5751699/donald-trump-impeached/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Alarabiya.net. (January 8, 2020). Oil prices jump 5% after Iran attacks US bases in Iraq. Alarabiya.net: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/energy/2020/01/08/Oil-prices-spike-over-4-5-pct-after-Iran-attacks-on-US-bases.html adresinden 229 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Al Jazeera. (2018, March 28). , Saudi Arabia and Russia consider 10 to 20 year oil alliance | Russia News | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/saudi-arabia-russia-10-20-year-oil-alliance-180328084728350.html adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Al-Jazeera. (December 6, 2018). OPEC members expected to agree to oil production cut. Al-Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/opec-members-expected-agree-oil-production-cut-181206080627446.html adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Amazon (2020). Donald J. Trump Books’. https://www.amazon.com/Donald-J.-Trump/e/B001H6O8M2%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
BBC. (December 11, 2019). Saudi Arabia oil attacks: UN 'unable to confirm Iranian involvement. BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50742224 adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
BBC. (January 8, 2020). BBC News. Iran attack: US troops targeted with ballistic missiles: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954 adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
BBC News. (January 8, 2020). Iran attack: Oil prices recede after rise on Iraq missile attacks. BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50979492 adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Behm, A. (July 10, 2019). The decline of US global leadership: Power without authority. theinterpreter: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/decline-us-global-leadership-power-without-authority adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Blazyte, A. (2020, February 12). • Total value of U.S. trade with China 2019 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/277679/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006/ adresinden 15 Şubat 2020'de alınmıştır.
Borger, J., & Chulov, M. (September 17, 2019). Trump says US response to oil attack depends on Saudi Arabia's assessment. theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/iran-trump-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-assessment-latest adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Brands, H. (2014). What Good Is Grand Strategy. New York: Cornell University Press.
Brumfiel, G. (September 19, 2019). What We Know About The Attack On Saudi Oil Facilities. NPR: https://www.npr.org/2019/09/19/762065119/what-we-know-about-the-attack-on-saudi-oil-facilities adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Buncombe, Andrew. (July 4, 2018). "Trump boasted about writing many books - his ghostwriter says otherwise", Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-books-tweet-ghostwriter-tim-o-brien-tony-schwartz-writer-response-a8431271.html adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır. CBS News (May 23, 2019., "Trump ghostwriter regrets "The Art of the Deal" ", https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOku1TqocuM adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
CNBC. (September 16, 2019). President Trump: Looks like Iran was responsible for Saudi oil attack. CNBC Television: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=152OoTVjFOs adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
CNBC. (June 12, 2019). Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salma. CNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhBmySU1it0 adresinden 21 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Cohen, E. (October 2017). How Trump Is Ending the American Era. The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/is-trump-ending-the-american-era/537888/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Collinson, S. (May 11, 2019). New impeachment disclosures lay bare Trump's power game. CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/05/politics/donald-trump-impeachment-democrats-republicans-supreme-court/index.html adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 7, 2019). OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) US Dollars per Barrel. countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec?year=2019 adresinden 11 Haziran 2019'da alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (December 2019). OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) US Dollars per Barrel. 12 30, 2019 tarihinde countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/brent adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). West Texas Intermediate WTI. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/brent adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Cunningham, N. (June 5, 2019). Trump’s Dangerous Oil Price Game. OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Trumps-Dangerous-Oil-Price-Game.html adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
DW. (10 Aralık 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi'nden Trump'a görevi suiistimal suçlaması. DW: https://www.dw.com/tr/temsilciler-meclisinden-trumpa-g%C3%B6revi-suistimal-su%C3%A7lamas%C4%B1/a-51612886 adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
El Gamal, R., Lawler, A., & Astakhova , O. (December 2, 2019). Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to deepen oil cuts due to Aramco IPO. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/saudi-arabia-wants-opec-to-deepen-oil-cuts-due-to-aramco-ipo-idUSKBN1Y60SG adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Euronews. (December 12, 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi Trump'ı azletti, nihai kararı Senato verecek: Şimdi ne olacak? Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2019/12/19/temsilciler-meclisi-trump-azletti-nihai-karar-senato-verecek-simdi-ne-olacak#7s8d6f87 adresinden 24 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Euronews. (December 19, 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi Trump'ı azletti, son karar senatonun ancak Trump azledilen ilk başkan değil. Euronews: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6WV3zNA7fw&feature=youtu.be#7s8d6f87 adresinden 30 Aralık 2020'de alınmıştır.
Euronews. (January 21, 2020). Trump'ın Senato'da yargılanma süreci başlıyor: Süreç nasıl işliyor? Başkan görevden alınabilir mi? Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2020/01/21/abd-de-azil-sureci-nasil-isliyor-trumpin-gorevden-alinmasi-mumkun-mu adresinden 22 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Hamedy, S. . (2017, August 18). “Art of the Deal” ghostwriter predicts Trump will resign - CNNPolitics. CNN, CNN Politics. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/17/politics/art-of-the-deal-author-trump-resignation-prediction/index.html adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Hutzler Alexandra. (May 24, 2019)." 'Blood Money': Donald Trump's 'Art Of The Deal' Ghostwriter Says He Wants To Atone For Helping President's Rise ", Newsweek, , https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-ghostwriter-atone-aiding-presidents-rise-1435830 adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Fandos, N. (January 13, 2020). A Step-by-Step Guide to Trump’s Impeachment Trial. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/trump-impeachment-trial-process.html adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Franck, T., Meredith, S., & Stevens, P. (January 8, 2020). Oil prices sink nearly 5% to under $60 after Trump says Iran is standing down in Middle East fight. CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/oil-prices-surge-4percent-following-attack-on-iraq-airbase.html adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Gallup. (2018). Rating World Leaders:2018 : The U.S. vs. Germany, China and Russia. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/reports/225587/rating-world-leaders-2018.aspx adresinden 17 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Gallup. (2019). 2019 Rating World Leaders: The U.S. vs. Germany, China and Russia. Gallup: https://www.gallup.com/analytics/247040/rating-world-leaders-2019.aspx adresinden 17 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Goldsmith, J. (2017, 10). Will Donald Trump Destroy the Presidency? The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/will-donald-trump-destroy-the-presidency/537921/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Golubkova , K., & Lawler, A. (June 29, 2019). Russia agrees with Saudi Arabia to extend OPEC+ oil output deal. 12 21, 2019 tarihinde Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-summit-putin-opec/russia-agrees-with-saudi-to-extend-opec-deal-by-6-9-months-putin-idUSKCN1TU0AF adresinden alınmıştır.
Hodari, D., Faucon, B., & Summer, S. (May 12, 2019). Saudi-Russia Committee Recommends Deeper Oil Cuts. The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-russia-committee-recommends-deeper-oil-cuts-11575560235 adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Hubbard, B. (January 21, 2020). Iran Admits Firing 2 Missiles at Jet and Says It’s Studying Effect. New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-missiles.html adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Kahl, C., & Brands, H. (January 31, 2017). Trump's Grand Strategic Train Wreck. Foreign Policy. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/ adresinden 3 Haziran 2018'de aktaran MacDonald, P. (2018). America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly, 133(3), 401.
Kahl, Colin; Brands, Hal. (January 31, 2017). Trump’s Grand Strategic Train Wreck: Believe it or not, the president has a grand strategy. But it's a nightmarish mess. Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/ adresinden 23 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Kelly, Keith J. (May 9, 2019). "Trump ghostwriters slam president after report exposes losses", New York Post, https://nypost.com/2019/05/09/trump-ghostwriters-slam-president-after-report-exposes-losses/ adresinden 20 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Krauss, C. (2019, December 5). OPEC and Russia Agree to Cuts in Oil Production to Push Up Prices - The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/business/opec-oil-production-cuts.html adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Lyons, K. (September 16, 2019). Saudi Arabia oil attack: Trump hints at action as US points finger at Iran. theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
MacDonald, P. (2018). America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly, 133(3), 401.
Markets Insider. (December 2019). "Oil ( Brent)". Markets Insider: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Meachem, J., Baker, P., Naftali , T., & Engel , J. (2018). Impeachment: An American History. New York: Modern Library.
Morello, C. (September 11, 2016). Iran nuclear deal could collapse under Trump. Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-nuclear-deal-could-collapse-under-trump/2016/11/09/f2d2bd02-a68c-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html#7s8d6f87 adresinden 28 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Nye, J. (2019). American Soft Power After Trump. USC Center on Public Diplomacy, Portland. The Soft Power 30 : A Global Ranking of Soft Power 2019: https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2019-1.pdf adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Nye, J. (May 6, 2019). American Soft Power in the Age of Trump. Project Syndicate: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/american-soft-power-decline-under-trump-by-joseph-s-nye-2019-05?barrier=accesspaylog adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
OilPrice. (December 30, 2019). OilPrice, "Oil Price Charts : Opec Basket". OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts#prices adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
OPEC. (December 6, 2019). The 7th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes. Vienna, Austria: OPEC. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5797.htm adresinden 7 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
OPEC. (December 6, 2019). OPEC Meeting : Saudi Arabia wants countries to deepen oil cuts. France 24 English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HfVIgcMkK4 adresinden 8 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Opec and allies agree to deepest oil output cuts in a decade. (December 5, 2019). Economic Times ET Markets: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/opec-seeks-deeper-oil-cuts-of-over-400000-bpd-sources/articleshow/72382249.cms?from=mdr adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Reed, S. (July 2, 2019). Russia and OPEC Draw Closer on Oil, Joining Other Producers to Manage Market. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/business/energy-environment/opec-russia.html adresinden 21 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Reuters. (November 14, 2019). Russia's Putin: Saudi Arabia taking tough stance on OPEC deal. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-putin/russias-putin-saudi-arabia-taking-tough-stance-on-opec-deal-idUSKBN1XO2RZ adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Russia and Saudi Arabia agree to extend deal with Opec to curb oil output. (June 30, 2019). 12 29, 2019 tarihinde theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/30/russia-saudi-arabia-extend-deal-opec-oil-output adresinden alınmıştır.
Saunders, E. (January 18, 2018). Is Trump a Normal Foreign-Policy President? :What We Know After One Year. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-01-18/trump-normal-foreign-policy-president adresinden 18 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Sillars, J. (April 23, 2019). Oil prices at 2019 high as Trump takes aim at Iran. SkyNews: https://news.sky.com/story/oil-prices-at-2019-high-as-trump-takes-aim-at-iran-11701342 adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Statista. (May 11, 2019). Average monthly Brent crude oil price from April 2018 to April 2019 (in U.S. dollars per barrel). Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/ adresinden 11 Mayıs 2019'da alınmıştır.
Summer , S., Faucon, B., & Hodari, D. (December 6, 2019). OPEC, Allies Finalize Deeper Oil Production Cuts. The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-allies-finalize-deeper-oil-production-cuts-11575644555 adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Sundria, S. (January 3, 2020). Oil Prices Surge After Iranian General Qasem Soleimani's Assassination. Time: https://time.com/5758247/qasem-soleimani-oil-price/ adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
The New York Times. (January 10, 2020). Potential Post-Trump Reforms. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/post-trump-reforms-executive-power.html adresinden 11 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
The Soft Power 30. (tarih yok). The Soft Power 30: https://softpower30.com/ adresinden 17 OCak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Tribe, L., & Matz, J. (2018). To End A Presidency : The Power of Impeachment. New York: Basic Books.
Trump, D. J. (December 5, 2018). www.twitter.com. Twitter: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1070328136150200320 adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Tverberg, G. (2020). Recession Fears Cap Oil Prices In 2020. Oilprice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Recession-Fears-Cap-Oil-Prices-In-2020.html# adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
West Texas Intermediate WTI. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Wilkinson, T., & Megerian, C. (2020, January 3). Trump says he ordered the strike that killed an Iranian general “to stop a war” - Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-01-03/iran-vows-harsh-reponse-after-general-killed-us-airstrike adresinden 5 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.

Azil Sürecinde Trump’ın OPEC Üzerindeki Etki Gücünün Değerlendirilmesi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 51 - 65, 30.06.2020

Bulend Aydin Ertekin

Öz

ABD Kongresi’ndeki azil sürecinden önce, Trump’ın sosyal medya üzerinden yaptığı gayri resmî açıklamaları petrol piyasalarını etkilemiş ve Trump’ın petrol fiyatlarının daha düşük olmasına yönelik çağrılarına OPEC olumlu tepkiler vermiştir. Ancak gelişmeler Trump’ın OPEC kararları üzerindeki etki gücünün azil sürecinde azaldığı yönündedir. Bu dönemde, OPEC’in Trump’tan bağımsız olarak 6 Aralık 2019 Viyana toplantısında Rusya ile ortak hareket etmesi ve petrol üretiminin azaltılması yönünde karar alması buna örnek teşkil etmektedir. Bu çalışma, Trump’ın azil sürecinde OPEC kararları üzerindeki etki gücünü değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla Trump’ın azil sürecinin ABD Kongresi’nde gündem olduğu dönem için çalışmanın varsayımlarını destekleyen verilere ve analizlere yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, OPEC üyesi ülkelerin petrol konusunda ABD ile olan derin ikili iş birliklerine rağmen kendi ulusal çıkarlarını korumaya yönelik olarak Trump’ın başkan seçildiği ilk yıllardan farklı olarak Trump’ın müdahalesinden uzak ve daha bağımsız kararlar almaya başladığı bulgusuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu durumun, devam edip etmeyeceğini ise zaman gösterecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

OPEC, Petrol Fİyatları, Ticaret savaşı, ABD, Azil davası

Kaynakça

Abramson, A., & Elliott, P. (December 19,2019). Democrats Have Impeached Trump in the House. Now the Battle Will Intensify. Time: https://time.com/5751699/donald-trump-impeached/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Alarabiya.net. (January 8, 2020). Oil prices jump 5% after Iran attacks US bases in Iraq. Alarabiya.net: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/energy/2020/01/08/Oil-prices-spike-over-4-5-pct-after-Iran-attacks-on-US-bases.html adresinden 229 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Al Jazeera. (2018, March 28). , Saudi Arabia and Russia consider 10 to 20 year oil alliance | Russia News | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/saudi-arabia-russia-10-20-year-oil-alliance-180328084728350.html adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Al-Jazeera. (December 6, 2018). OPEC members expected to agree to oil production cut. Al-Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/opec-members-expected-agree-oil-production-cut-181206080627446.html adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Amazon (2020). Donald J. Trump Books’. https://www.amazon.com/Donald-J.-Trump/e/B001H6O8M2%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
BBC. (December 11, 2019). Saudi Arabia oil attacks: UN 'unable to confirm Iranian involvement. BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50742224 adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
BBC. (January 8, 2020). BBC News. Iran attack: US troops targeted with ballistic missiles: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954 adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
BBC News. (January 8, 2020). Iran attack: Oil prices recede after rise on Iraq missile attacks. BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50979492 adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Behm, A. (July 10, 2019). The decline of US global leadership: Power without authority. theinterpreter: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/decline-us-global-leadership-power-without-authority adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Blazyte, A. (2020, February 12). • Total value of U.S. trade with China 2019 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/277679/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006/ adresinden 15 Şubat 2020'de alınmıştır.
Borger, J., & Chulov, M. (September 17, 2019). Trump says US response to oil attack depends on Saudi Arabia's assessment. theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/iran-trump-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-assessment-latest adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Brands, H. (2014). What Good Is Grand Strategy. New York: Cornell University Press.
Brumfiel, G. (September 19, 2019). What We Know About The Attack On Saudi Oil Facilities. NPR: https://www.npr.org/2019/09/19/762065119/what-we-know-about-the-attack-on-saudi-oil-facilities adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Buncombe, Andrew. (July 4, 2018). "Trump boasted about writing many books - his ghostwriter says otherwise", Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-books-tweet-ghostwriter-tim-o-brien-tony-schwartz-writer-response-a8431271.html adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır. CBS News (May 23, 2019., "Trump ghostwriter regrets "The Art of the Deal" ", https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOku1TqocuM adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
CNBC. (September 16, 2019). President Trump: Looks like Iran was responsible for Saudi oil attack. CNBC Television: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=152OoTVjFOs adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
CNBC. (June 12, 2019). Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salma. CNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhBmySU1it0 adresinden 21 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Cohen, E. (October 2017). How Trump Is Ending the American Era. The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/is-trump-ending-the-american-era/537888/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Collinson, S. (May 11, 2019). New impeachment disclosures lay bare Trump's power game. CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/05/politics/donald-trump-impeachment-democrats-republicans-supreme-court/index.html adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 7, 2019). OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) US Dollars per Barrel. countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec?year=2019 adresinden 11 Haziran 2019'da alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (December 2019). OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) US Dollars per Barrel. 12 30, 2019 tarihinde countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/brent adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Countryeconomy.com. (January 2020). West Texas Intermediate WTI. Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/opec adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Crude Oil Brent US Dollars per Barrel. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/brent adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Cunningham, N. (June 5, 2019). Trump’s Dangerous Oil Price Game. OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Trumps-Dangerous-Oil-Price-Game.html adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
DW. (10 Aralık 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi'nden Trump'a görevi suiistimal suçlaması. DW: https://www.dw.com/tr/temsilciler-meclisinden-trumpa-g%C3%B6revi-suistimal-su%C3%A7lamas%C4%B1/a-51612886 adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
El Gamal, R., Lawler, A., & Astakhova , O. (December 2, 2019). Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to deepen oil cuts due to Aramco IPO. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/saudi-arabia-wants-opec-to-deepen-oil-cuts-due-to-aramco-ipo-idUSKBN1Y60SG adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Euronews. (December 12, 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi Trump'ı azletti, nihai kararı Senato verecek: Şimdi ne olacak? Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2019/12/19/temsilciler-meclisi-trump-azletti-nihai-karar-senato-verecek-simdi-ne-olacak#7s8d6f87 adresinden 24 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Euronews. (December 19, 2019). Temsilciler Meclisi Trump'ı azletti, son karar senatonun ancak Trump azledilen ilk başkan değil. Euronews: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6WV3zNA7fw&feature=youtu.be#7s8d6f87 adresinden 30 Aralık 2020'de alınmıştır.
Euronews. (January 21, 2020). Trump'ın Senato'da yargılanma süreci başlıyor: Süreç nasıl işliyor? Başkan görevden alınabilir mi? Euronews: https://tr.euronews.com/2020/01/21/abd-de-azil-sureci-nasil-isliyor-trumpin-gorevden-alinmasi-mumkun-mu adresinden 22 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Hamedy, S. . (2017, August 18). “Art of the Deal” ghostwriter predicts Trump will resign - CNNPolitics. CNN, CNN Politics. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/17/politics/art-of-the-deal-author-trump-resignation-prediction/index.html adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Hutzler Alexandra. (May 24, 2019)." 'Blood Money': Donald Trump's 'Art Of The Deal' Ghostwriter Says He Wants To Atone For Helping President's Rise ", Newsweek, , https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-ghostwriter-atone-aiding-presidents-rise-1435830 adresinden 28 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Fandos, N. (January 13, 2020). A Step-by-Step Guide to Trump’s Impeachment Trial. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/trump-impeachment-trial-process.html adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Franck, T., Meredith, S., & Stevens, P. (January 8, 2020). Oil prices sink nearly 5% to under $60 after Trump says Iran is standing down in Middle East fight. CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/oil-prices-surge-4percent-following-attack-on-iraq-airbase.html adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Gallup. (2018). Rating World Leaders:2018 : The U.S. vs. Germany, China and Russia. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/reports/225587/rating-world-leaders-2018.aspx adresinden 17 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Gallup. (2019). 2019 Rating World Leaders: The U.S. vs. Germany, China and Russia. Gallup: https://www.gallup.com/analytics/247040/rating-world-leaders-2019.aspx adresinden 17 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Goldsmith, J. (2017, 10). Will Donald Trump Destroy the Presidency? The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/will-donald-trump-destroy-the-presidency/537921/ adresinden 7 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Golubkova , K., & Lawler, A. (June 29, 2019). Russia agrees with Saudi Arabia to extend OPEC+ oil output deal. 12 21, 2019 tarihinde Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-summit-putin-opec/russia-agrees-with-saudi-to-extend-opec-deal-by-6-9-months-putin-idUSKCN1TU0AF adresinden alınmıştır.
Hodari, D., Faucon, B., & Summer, S. (May 12, 2019). Saudi-Russia Committee Recommends Deeper Oil Cuts. The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-russia-committee-recommends-deeper-oil-cuts-11575560235 adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Hubbard, B. (January 21, 2020). Iran Admits Firing 2 Missiles at Jet and Says It’s Studying Effect. New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-missiles.html adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Kahl, C., & Brands, H. (January 31, 2017). Trump's Grand Strategic Train Wreck. Foreign Policy. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/ adresinden 3 Haziran 2018'de aktaran MacDonald, P. (2018). America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly, 133(3), 401.
Kahl, Colin; Brands, Hal. (January 31, 2017). Trump’s Grand Strategic Train Wreck: Believe it or not, the president has a grand strategy. But it's a nightmarish mess. Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/ adresinden 23 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Kelly, Keith J. (May 9, 2019). "Trump ghostwriters slam president after report exposes losses", New York Post, https://nypost.com/2019/05/09/trump-ghostwriters-slam-president-after-report-exposes-losses/ adresinden 20 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.
Krauss, C. (2019, December 5). OPEC and Russia Agree to Cuts in Oil Production to Push Up Prices - The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/business/opec-oil-production-cuts.html adresinden 10 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Lyons, K. (September 16, 2019). Saudi Arabia oil attack: Trump hints at action as US points finger at Iran. theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
MacDonald, P. (2018). America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly, 133(3), 401.
Markets Insider. (December 2019). "Oil ( Brent)". Markets Insider: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Meachem, J., Baker, P., Naftali , T., & Engel , J. (2018). Impeachment: An American History. New York: Modern Library.
Morello, C. (September 11, 2016). Iran nuclear deal could collapse under Trump. Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-nuclear-deal-could-collapse-under-trump/2016/11/09/f2d2bd02-a68c-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html#7s8d6f87 adresinden 28 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Nye, J. (2019). American Soft Power After Trump. USC Center on Public Diplomacy, Portland. The Soft Power 30 : A Global Ranking of Soft Power 2019: https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2019-1.pdf adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Nye, J. (May 6, 2019). American Soft Power in the Age of Trump. Project Syndicate: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/american-soft-power-decline-under-trump-by-joseph-s-nye-2019-05?barrier=accesspaylog adresinden 15 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
OilPrice. (December 30, 2019). OilPrice, "Oil Price Charts : Opec Basket". OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts#prices adresinden 30 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
OPEC. (December 6, 2019). The 7th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes. Vienna, Austria: OPEC. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5797.htm adresinden 7 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
OPEC. (December 6, 2019). OPEC Meeting : Saudi Arabia wants countries to deepen oil cuts. France 24 English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HfVIgcMkK4 adresinden 8 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Opec and allies agree to deepest oil output cuts in a decade. (December 5, 2019). Economic Times ET Markets: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/opec-seeks-deeper-oil-cuts-of-over-400000-bpd-sources/articleshow/72382249.cms?from=mdr adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Reed, S. (July 2, 2019). Russia and OPEC Draw Closer on Oil, Joining Other Producers to Manage Market. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/business/energy-environment/opec-russia.html adresinden 21 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Reuters. (November 14, 2019). Russia's Putin: Saudi Arabia taking tough stance on OPEC deal. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-putin/russias-putin-saudi-arabia-taking-tough-stance-on-opec-deal-idUSKBN1XO2RZ adresinden 29 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Russia and Saudi Arabia agree to extend deal with Opec to curb oil output. (June 30, 2019). 12 29, 2019 tarihinde theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/30/russia-saudi-arabia-extend-deal-opec-oil-output adresinden alınmıştır.
Saunders, E. (January 18, 2018). Is Trump a Normal Foreign-Policy President? :What We Know After One Year. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-01-18/trump-normal-foreign-policy-president adresinden 18 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Sillars, J. (April 23, 2019). Oil prices at 2019 high as Trump takes aim at Iran. SkyNews: https://news.sky.com/story/oil-prices-at-2019-high-as-trump-takes-aim-at-iran-11701342 adresinden 20 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Statista. (May 11, 2019). Average monthly Brent crude oil price from April 2018 to April 2019 (in U.S. dollars per barrel). Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/ adresinden 11 Mayıs 2019'da alınmıştır.
Summer , S., Faucon, B., & Hodari, D. (December 6, 2019). OPEC, Allies Finalize Deeper Oil Production Cuts. The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-allies-finalize-deeper-oil-production-cuts-11575644555 adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Sundria, S. (January 3, 2020). Oil Prices Surge After Iranian General Qasem Soleimani's Assassination. Time: https://time.com/5758247/qasem-soleimani-oil-price/ adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
The New York Times. (January 10, 2020). Potential Post-Trump Reforms. The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/post-trump-reforms-executive-power.html adresinden 11 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
The Soft Power 30. (tarih yok). The Soft Power 30: https://softpower30.com/ adresinden 17 OCak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Tribe, L., & Matz, J. (2018). To End A Presidency : The Power of Impeachment. New York: Basic Books.
Trump, D. J. (December 5, 2018). www.twitter.com. Twitter: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1070328136150200320 adresinden 22 Aralık 2019'da alınmıştır.
Tverberg, G. (2020). Recession Fears Cap Oil Prices In 2020. Oilprice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Recession-Fears-Cap-Oil-Prices-In-2020.html# adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
West Texas Intermediate WTI. (January 2020). Countryeconomy.com: https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/crude-oil-wti adresinden 29 Ocak 2020'de alınmıştır.
Wilkinson, T., & Megerian, C. (2020, January 3). Trump says he ordered the strike that killed an Iranian general “to stop a war” - Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-01-03/iran-vows-harsh-reponse-after-general-killed-us-airstrike adresinden 5 Ocak 2020’de alınmıştır.

Toplam 71 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	Türkçe
Bölüm	Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar	Bulend Aydin Ertekin 0000-0002-7578-0879
Yayımlanma Tarihi	30 Haziran 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2020 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA	Ertekin, B. A. (2020). Azil Sürecinde Trump’ın OPEC Üzerindeki Etki Gücünün Değerlendirilmesi. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 51-65.

Kapak Resmi İndir

Makale Dosyaları

Tam Metin

The sole purpose of JOEEP is to be a prestigious journal which contributes to scientific knowledge. In order to keep this purpose, JOEEP, adopts and follows the publication policies of world’s prestigious scientific journals. All original and qualified works which may contribute to the scientific knowledge, are evaluated through a rigorous editorial and peer review process. Hereby, JOEEP is a peer reviewed and scientific journal. It strictly depends on the scientific principles, rules and ethical framework that are required to this qualification.

JOEEP is published as two issues per year June and December and all publication policies and processes are conducted according to the international standards. JOEEP accepts and publishes the research articles in the fields of economics, political economy, fiscal economics, applied economics, business economics, labour economics and econometrics. JOEEP, without depending on any institution or organization, is a non-profit journal that has an International Editorial Board specialist on their fields. All “Publication Process” and “Writing Guidelines” are explained in the related title and it is expected from authors to Show a complete match to the rules. JOEEP is an open Access journal.