N11 Ülkelerinde Finansal Derinleşme Yoksulluk ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Finansal Liberalleşme Hipotezi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 155 - 170, 30.12.2022

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2000’den 2020’ye kadar yirmi yıllık bir süre boyunca N11 ülkelerinde dış açıklık, dış borç ve enflasyonun yoksulluk üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi ve sonuçlarının ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Değişkenlerine ait verilerin tamamı Dünya Bankasının veri tabanından (World Development Indicators) yıllık olarak alınmıştır. Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ve Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, dışa açıklık, dış borç, enflasyonun ile yoksulluk arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin incelendiği Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi, değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olmadığını göstermiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Nedensellik testinde, N11 ülkelerinde dışa açıklık oranından yoksulluğa doğru “Türkiye ve Endonezya” da, yoksulluk oranından dışa açıklığa doğru “Türkiye, Endonezya, Mısır ve Bangladeş’te”, Enflasyon oranından yoksulluk oranına doğru “Filipinler ve Vietnam’da” anlamlı olduğu; yoksulluktan enflasyon oranına doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin tüm ülkeler için anlamsız olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dış borçlardan yoksulluk oranına doğru “Filipinler ve Endonezya’da” ve yoksulluktan dış borç oranına doğru sadece Nijerya’da nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu bulgular arasındadır. Bu bilgiler ışığında artan uluslararası ticaret ile yoksulluk düzeyi arasında karşılıklı bir ilişki olduğu, enflasyon oranının ve dış borçların artmasının yoksulluğu etkilediği ancak yoksulluk oranının dış borçlar ve enflasyon üzerinde herhangi bir etkisinin olmadığı görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dışa Açıklık, Dış Borç, Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedenselik Analizi

Poverty in Triangle of Foreign Openness, Foreign Debt and Inflation N11 Countries: Panel Causality Analysis

Öz

This study aims to analyze the effects of external openness, external debt, and inflation on poverty in N11 countries from 2000 to 2020. In this study, it is aimed to examine the effects of external openness, external debt and inflation on poverty in N11 countries over a twenty-year period from 2000 to 2020 and to reveal the results. All of the data for the variables were taken from the World Bank's database (World Development Indicators) annually. The Durbin-Hausman cointegration test, which examines the cointegration relationship between poverty and external openness, external debt, and inflation, showed that the variables did not cointegrate in the long run. In N11 countries, the causality relationships among the variables were analyzed using the Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) causality test: the causality relationships were significant in "From openness to poverty" for Turkey and Indonesia; "From poverty rates to openness" for Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, and Bangladesh; “From inflation rates to poverty rates” for Philippines and Vietnam. The causality relationship in "From poverty to inflation rates" was insignificant for all countries. Also, it was among the findings that there was a "From external debt to poverty rates" causal relationship in the Philippines and Indonesia; and "From poverty to external debt ratios" only in Nigeria. In the light of this information, it is seen that there is a reciprocal relationship between increasing international trade and the level of poverty; the increase in inflation rates and foreign debt affects poverty, but poverty rates do not affect foreign debts and inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Openees, External Dept, İnfalation, Economic Growth, Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

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