Turizmin Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkisi (1963-2015)

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 11 - 22, 30.06.2018

Ahmad Wali Furmolly , Berna Kırkulak Uludağ

https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.364321

Cited By: 5

Abstract

ÖZET

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayısının ekonomiye etkisini
incelemektir. Çalışmada Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modeli, Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) birim kök testleri, Johansen eş-bütünsellik ve Granger nedensellik testleri
kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, 1963-2015 yılları arasındaki gelen turist sayısı, Gayri Safi
Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) ve GSYİH büyüme hızı değişkenleri kullanılarak
yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, gelen turist sayısı, GSYİH ve GSYİH büyüme
oranı arasında eş bütünsellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç turizm ve
ekonomi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Granger
nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular gelen turist sayısının GSYİH ve
GSYİH büyüme oranını tek yönlü etkilediğini, tersi bir etkileşimin olmadığı
göstermektedir. Bu sonuç Turizm Güdümlü İktisadi Büyüme (TGİB) hipotezini
desteklemektedir. Çalışma, aynı zamanda, milli gelire ve ekonomik büyümeye uzun
dönemli katkısı bulunan turizm sektörünün ekonomik kalkınmada daha etkin rol
oynayabilmesi için sektör temsilcilerinin ve politika yapıcıların birlikte
sürdürülebilir turizm politikaları üretmesi gerektiğini de ortaya koymaktadır.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact
of number of tourists on the economic growth of Turkey. In this paper, the
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, (ADF),
Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, Johansen cointegration and Granger
causality tests were used. The data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 for the
number of tourist arrivals (NT), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP growth
rate (GDPGR) variables. Thus, the existence of cointegration among the
variables of number of tourist arrivals, Gross Domestic Product and GDP growth
rate indicates that there is a long-run relationship among these variables. The
findings of Granger causality test indicate the existence of unidirectional
causality from the number of tourist arrivals to GDP and GDP growth rate but
not vice versa. Hence, the results are in support of tourism-led growth
hypothesis for the Turkish economy rather than the growth-led tourism
hypothesis. Meanwhile, the findings of this paper have an important
contribution for better understanding the role of tourism on the economic
growth of Turkey.

Keywords

Anahtar Kelimeler: gelen turist sayısı, GSYİH, GSYİH büyüme oran

The Impact of Tourism on Turkish Economy (1963-2015)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact
of number of tourists on the economic growth of Turkey. In this paper, the
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, (ADF),
Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, Johansen cointegration and Granger
causality tests were used. The data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 for the
number of tourist arrivals (NT), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP growth
rate (GDPGR) variables.Thus, the existence of cointegration among the variables
of number of tourist arrivals, Gross Domestic Product and GDP growth rate
indicates that there is a long-run relationship among these variables.The
findings of Granger causality test indicate the existence of unidirectional
causality from the number of tourist arrivals to GDP and GDP growth rate but
not vice versa. Hence, the results are in support of tourism-led growth
hypothesis for the Turkish economy rather than the growth-led tourism
hypothesis.

Keywords

Number of tourist arrivals, GDP, GDP growth rate

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