Evaluation of NASA POWER Climatic Data against Ground-Based Observations in The Mediterranean and Continental Regions of Turkey

Yıl 2023, , 104 - 114, 19.01.2023

Abdul Hasib Halimi , Cihan Karaca , Dursun Büyüktaş

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1073903

Cited By: 2

Öz

The weather reanalysis datasets are very advantageous data types worldwide that fill the gaps of missed measuring data and are alternatives that compensate for the scarcity of observed climate data. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of horizontal distance, altitude, and climatic regions compared to sea level on NASA POWER reanalysis data for daily temperature variables, relative humidity, and wind speed observed in meteorology stations in the Mediterranean and Continental regions of Turkey. For this purpose, three different meteorology stations (Antalya airport, Elmalı, Teffenni) from the Mediterranean region with different distances and elevations compared to sea level and one station (Ankara) far from the Mediterranean region with continental climate were selected. The statistical approach used to compare observed and estimated values in this study was determination coefficient (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and Mean Bias Error (MBE). The results showed a high relation between the POWER reanalysis dataset and observed data for all parameters except wind speed. For daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature, the R2 and NSE achieved higher than 0.91 and 0.88 respectively, while the mean bias error MBE ranged between -3 °C up to +2 °C and the RMSE was less than 4 °C in all stations. Additionally, POWER estimated data correlation accuracy for temperature variables increased toward higher altitudes in the study area. Similarly, this performance was followed by relative humidity, increasing relation accuracy toward higher elevated regions. The R2 was higher than 0.69 in higher altitudes and less than 0.4 in lower elevations. The MBE for relative humidity ranges -2% in Antalya to +9% in Ankara, and the RMSE attained less than 13.81% in all regions. The POWER daily wind speed did not show relation with observed data without adjusting for elevation and seasonal bias correction. Overall, it was concluded that the NASA POWER dataset could predict temperature and relative humidity over study area and give a promising result if used in research, water, and agricultural decision-making where observation data are not available.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Decision-making, Estimation, Global atmospheric models, Meteorological data, Reanalysis data

Evaluation of NASA POWER Climatic Data against Ground-Based Observations in The Mediterranean and Continental Regions of Turkey

Öz

İklimsel parametreler için yeniden analiz veri kümeleri, dünya çapında ölçülemeyen ya da eksik verilere alternatifler olan çok avantajlı veri türleridir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ülkemizin Akdeniz ve karasal iklime sahip bölgelerindeki meteoroloji istasyonlarında ölçülen ve NASA POWER yeniden analiz yöntemiyle tahmin edilen günlük sıcaklık, bağıl nem ve rüzgâr hızı parametrelerine ait verilerin deniz seviyesine göre yatay mesafe, yükseklik ve iklim bölgelerinin etkisine bağlı olarak değerlendirmektir. Bu amaçla, Akdeniz bölgesinden deniz seviyesine göre farklı yatay uzaklıkta ve kotlarda üç farklı meteoroloji istasyonu (Antalya havalimanı, Elmalı, Teffenni) ile Akdeniz bölgesine uzak karasal iklime sahip bir istasyon (Ankara) seçilmiştir. Bu çalışmada ölçülen ve tahmin edilen değerleri karşılaştırmak için, determinasyon katsayısı (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Verimliliği (NSE), Ortalama Kareler Hatasının Karekökü (RMSE), Normalleştirilmiş Ortalama Kareler Hatasının Karekökü (NRMSE) ve Ortalama Yanlı Hatası (MBE) performans kriterleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, rüzgâr hızı dışındaki tüm parametreler için POWER yeniden analiz veri seti ile gözlemlenen veriler arasında yüksek bir ilişki göstermiştir. Günlük maksimum, minimum ve ortalama sıcaklık için, R2 ve NSE sırasıyla 0.91 ve 0.88'den daha yüksek bir değere ulaşırken, MBE -3 °C ile +2 °C arasında değişkenlik gösterdi. İstasyonların tamamında RMSE’nin 4 °C az olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, sıcaklık değişkenleri için POWER tahmininin veri doğruluğu, yükselen irtifaya bağlı olarak artış göstermiştir. Ortalama bağıl nem için de benzer sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. R2, yüksek irtifalarda 0,69'dan fazla ve alçak irtifalarda 0,4'ten düşük olarak elde edilmiştir. Tüm bölgelerde RMSE değerinin %13.81'den daha az olduğu saptanmıştır. POWER günlük rüzgâr hızı, farklı yükseklik ve iklim tiplerinde gözlemlenen verilerle iyi bir ilişki göstermemiştir. Sonuç olarak, NASA POWER veri setinin çalışma alanı üzerindeki sıcaklık ve bağıl nemi tahmin edebileceği ve gözlem verilerinin bulunmadığı araştırma, su ve tarımsal karar verme süreçlerinde kullanılması durumunda umut verici sonuçlar verebileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karar verme, Tahmin, Küresel atmosferik modeller, Meteorolojik veriler, Yeniden analiz verileri

Kaynakça

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