Modeling Drinking Milk Consumption Preferences under Climate Change and the Covid-19 Pandemics Conditions

Öz

Climate changes and Covid-19 pandemic have dramatically led to adverse impacts on not only the food supply chains but also consumers’ consumption preferences and purchase decisions in the last decade, and thus they have gradually threatened the welfare of current and next generations. The aim of the research was to determine the factors affecting consumers’ milk consumption preference and purchase decisions at TRA1 region in Turkey, and then to construct the first and second-order consumption preference models based on the factors, and finally to test validation of the models. For the purposes, the main data of the study consisted of primary data obtained from 765 households residing in TRA1 region. The data were firstly used in Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to determine factor dimensions, and then in Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) for first and second-order multi-factor measurement models. The results of the study indicated that convergent and discriminant validities for each factor dimension in the CFA model were accepted by according to the compare and goodness-of-fit test threshold criteria. On the other hand, the results also highlighted that hygiene, sensory quality, and reliability factors at a higher level, and brand image, concern and nutrition value factors at a moderate level and milk supply source factor at a minimum level were major indicators on consumers’ milk consumption preferences and purchase decisions. All the factors out of concern factor covering the variables related to climate change and Covid-19 pandemic were of positive relationships on their milk consumption pattern, indeed, but concern factor created the negative impacts on the others. Consequently, contraction of animal-based milk diet consumption could be relatively contributed to mitigate the effects of climate change by being transited gradually to moderate-mixed plant-based milk sources, and then to preparation of new national diet programs related to milk consumption.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CFA
• Climate change
• Covid-19 pandemic
• Goodness of fit test
• Milk consumption pattern

İklim Değişikliği ve Covid-19 Salgını Koşullarında İçme Sütü Tüketim Tercihlerinin Modellenmesi

Öz

Son yıllarda yaşanan iklim değişikliği ve Covid-19 salgını, sadece gıda arz zinciri üzerinde değil aynı zamanda tüketicilerin tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararları üzerinde de dramatik bir şekilde ters bir etkiye neden olmakta ve bu yüzden mevcut ve gelecek jenerasyonların refahlarını da tehdit etmektedir. Araştırmanın amacı, TRA1 bölgesinde tüketicilerin süt tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi, daha sonra bu faktörlere dayalı olarak birinci ve ikinci düzey tercih modellerini oluşturmak ve son olarak da bu modellerin geçerliliklerini test etmektedir. Bu amaçlar için çalışmanın ana materyali TRA1 bölgesinde 765 hane halkından toplanan birincil veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu veriler öncelikle faktör boyutlarını belirlemek için Keşfedici Faktör Analizinde (EFA) ve daha sonra ise birinci ve ikinci düzey çok faktörlü ölçüm modelleri için Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizlerinde (CFA) kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın sonuçları, CFA modelde her bir faktör boyutunun yakınsama ve ayrışma geçerliliği, model uyum ve karşılaştırma kritik değerlerine göre kabul edildiğini göstermiştir. Diğer taraftan sonuçlar; tüketicilerin süt tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararı üzerinde hijyen, duyusal kalite ve güvenirlilik faktörlerinin daha yüksek bir seviyede, fakat marka imajı, endişe ve besin değeri faktörlerinin ise daha ılımlı bir seviyede ve süt temin kaynağının minimum bir seviyede temel göstergeler olduğuna işaret etmiştir. Gerçekten de tüketicilerin süt tüketim modellerinde iklim değişikliği ve Covid-19 salgını değişkenlerini içeren endişe faktörleri dışındaki bütün faktörler ile pozitif ilişkilere sahiptir, ancak endişe faktörü diğerleri üzerinde negatif bir etki yaratmıştır. Sonuç olarak, hayvansal kaynaklı süt diyeti tüketiminin azaltılması, kademeli olarak orta derecede karma bitkisel bazlı süt kaynaklarına aktarılarak ve ardından da süt tüketimiyle ilgili yeni ulusal diyet programlarının hazırlanarak iklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin azaltılmasına nispeten katkıda bulunulabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CFA
• İklim değişikliği
• Covid-19 salgını
• Uyum iyiliği istatistiği
• Süt tüketim modeli

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