Analyze of The Effects of Possible Climate Change Scenarios for Biomass and Grain Yields of Sunflower and Winter Wheat with AquaCrop Model in The Thrace Region of Türkiye

Öz

Prediction of crop yield and biomass in agricultural production is crucial for both food safety and national economic projections. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the effects of climate change and biomass and grain yield of two crops (winter wheat and sunflower) at two locations, Kirklareli (KRK), Edirne-Orhaniye (EOR), with different soil textures, in the Thrace region. The scenarios (n=S1, S2,…,S65) of sensitivity analysis established by considering the expected trend of climate change were evaluated in terms of biomass and grain yield for sunflower and winter wheat crops with the AquaCrop model. The model predicted the highest losses of grain yield and biomass, when the air temperature was increased by 5 °C and the precipitation was decreased by 50% during the growing seasons of both crops (in the scenario S42). In the scenarios where only temperature was increased, grain and biomass yield values of sunflower was decreased, while those of winter wheat was increased. The combined effects of increased global solar radiation and decreased temperature had a negative effect on wheat production at EOR. For both sunflower and wheat, the most negative impacts on yield and biomass production were observed with the combined scenarios of various temperature increases and precipitation decreases during each growing season at each location. According to the simulation results of the defined single and combined scenarios in both spatial areas, while the grain and biomass yields of the summer planted sunflower plant were negative linear relations every scenario, non-linear relations were determined in the yields of the winter-wheat plant. Finally, with the defined sensitivity scenarios, the correlation coefficients between biomass and grain yield of sunflower and winter wheat under similar climate but different soil types in two locations were found to be R2= 0.88 and 0.87 for KRK and R2 = 0.56, and 0.79, for EOR, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agrometeorology
• Winter wheat
• Sunflower
• Sensitivity analysis
• AquaCrop

Destekleyen Kurum

REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND POLICIES

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKAD/14/A13/P01/05

Etik Beyan

There is no need to obtain permission from the ethics committee for this study.

Teşekkür

REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND POLICIES

Trakya Bölgesi'nde Olası İklim Değişikliği Senaryolarının Ayçiçeği ve Kışlık Buğdayın Biyokütle ve Tane Verimine Etkilerinin AquaCrop Modeli ile Analizi

Öz

Tarımsal üretimde ürün verimi ve biyokütlenin tahmini hem gıda güvenliği hem de ulusal ekonomik projeksiyonlar açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Trakya bölgesinde, Kırklareli (KRK), Edirne-Orhaniye (EOR) de, farklı toprak bünyesine sahip iki lokasyonda iklim değişikliğinin etkileri ile iki ürünün (kışlık buğday ve ayçiçeği) biyokütle ve tane verimi arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesi amaçlamıştır. İklim değişikliğinin beklenen eğilimi dikkate alınarak oluşturulan hassaslık analizi senaryoları (n=S1, S2,…,S65) AquaCrop modeli ile ayçiçeği ve kışlık buğday bitkisi için biyokütle ve tane verimi açısından değerlendirilmiştir. Model, her iki ürünün yetiştirme sezonu boyunca hava sıcaklığının 5 °C arttığı ve yağışların %50 azaldığı senaryoda (S42) dane ve biyokütle veriminde en yüksek kayıpları tahmin etmiştir. Sadece sıcaklığın artırıldığı senaryolarda ayçiçeğinin dane ve biyokütle verim değerleri düşerken, kışlık buğdayın dane ve biyokütle verim değerleri arttı. Artan global güneş radyasyonu ve azalan sıcaklığın birleşik etkileri, EOR istasyonunda buğday dane üretimi üzerinde negatif bir etki yarattı. Hem ayçiçeği hem de buğday için, dane ve biyokütle üretimi üzerindeki en olumsuz etkiler, her iki gelişme sezonu boyunca, iki lokasyonda da çeşitli sıcaklık artışları ve yağış düşüşlerinin bir araya getirildiği senaryolarla gözlemlendi. Oluşturulan hassaslık analiz senaryolarının tekli ve birleşik senaryoların her iki mekânsal alanda simülasyon sonuçlarına göre, yazlık ekilen ayçiçeği bitkisinin tane ve biyokütle verimleri her senaryoda negatif doğrusal ilişkiler gösterirken, kışlık buğday bitkisinin dane verimlerinde doğrusal olmayan ilişkiler belirlenmiştir. Son olarak, tanımlanan duyarlılık senaryoları ile benzer iklim ancak farklı toprak tiplerine sahip iki lokasyondaki ayçiçeği ve kışlık buğdayın biyokütle ve tane verimi arasındaki korelasyon katsayıları sırasıyla KRK için R2= 0,88 ve 0,87 ve EOR için R2 = 0,56 ve 0,79 olarak bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agrometeoroloji
• Kışlık buğday
• Ayçiçeği
• Hassasiyet analizi
• AquaCrop

Destekleyen Kurum

T.C. TARIM VE ORMAN BAKANLIĞI TARIMSAL ARAŞTIRMALAR VE POLİTİKALAR GENEL MÜDÜRLÜĞÜ

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKAD/14/A13/P01/05

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma için etik kuruldan izin alınmasına gerek yoktur.

Teşekkür

T.C. TARIM VE ORMAN BAKANLIĞI TARIMSAL ARAŞTIRMALAR VE POLİTİKALAR GENEL MÜDÜRLÜĞÜ

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