Optimizing Sunflower Yield Under Water Constraints: A Comparative Analysis of Irrigation Strategies, Seed Varieties, and Simulation Models

Öz

This study explored the impact of increasing water restrictions, driven by climate change, on sunflower yield and assessed the adaptability of different seed varieties to these challenging conditions. Three irrigation strategies were applied: S0 (no irrigation), S1 (semi-irrigation), and S2 (full irrigation). Two sunflower cultivars, Sanay and Pioneer, were tested to evaluate how irrigation and seed variety influence key parameters such as leaf area index (LAI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), plant height, and yield. The results indicated that the Pioneer variety generally exhibited higher LAI and yield values compared to Sanay. The maximum LAI value of 4.43 was observed in July under full irrigation (S2). NDVI results further supported these findings, showing that fully irrigated Pioneer plants had higher photosynthetic activity, indicating better adaptation to water stress. While Sanay produced taller plants and relatively high biomass even without irrigation (S0), Pioneer achieved superior yield performance under optimal water conditions. Both cultivars recorded their highest yields under the S2 treatment, highlighting the significance of effective water management for sunflower production. To complement the experimental data, yield predictions were performed using three crop simulation models: AquaCrop, DSSAT, and WOFOST. Among these, AquaCrop provided the most accurate predictions, especially under full irrigation, showing strong alignment with observed yield values. However, the variability observed in model predictions emphasizes the need for careful assessment of these tools across different environmental conditions. In conclusion, selecting appropriate seed varieties and developing optimized irrigation strategies are critical for maintaining agricultural sustainability under water-limited conditions driven by climate change. The accurate simulation of crop yields under different irrigation regimes can further support decision-making processes, but variability in model outputs highlights the importance of model validation based on environmental factors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sunflower
• Deficit irrigation
• Seed varieties
• Simulation models
• Climate change
• Water management
• Yield prediction

Destekleyen Kurum

TAGEM (General Directorate of Agricultural Research and Policies)

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKA/16/A13/P08/01/A.P-7

Etik Beyan

There is no need to obtain permission from the ethics committee for this study.

Su Kısıtı Koşullarında Ayçiçeği Veriminin Optimizasyonu: Sulama Stratejileri, Tohum Çeşitleri ve Simülasyon Modellerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu artan su kısıtlamalarının ayçiçeği verimi üzerindeki etkisini ve farklı tohum çeşitlerinin bu zorlayıcı koşullara uyumunu incelemiştir. Üç sulama stratejisi uygulanmıştır: S0 (sulamadan), S1 (kısmi sulama) ve S2 (tam sulama). Ayrıca, iki ayçiçeği çeşidi olan Sanay ve Pioneer kullanılarak sulama ve tohum çeşitlerinin yaprak alan indeksi (LAI), normalize edilmiş fark bitki indeksi (NDVI), bitki boyu ve verim gibi temel parametreler üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Pioneer çeşidinin genel olarak Sanay'a kıyasla daha yüksek LAI ve verim değerleri sergilediğini ortaya koymuştur. En yüksek LAI değeri olan 4.43, Temmuz ayında tam sulama (S2) altında kaydedilmiştir. NDVI sonuçları, tam sulanan Pioneer bitkilerinin daha yüksek fotosentetik aktivite gösterdiğini ve su stresine daha iyi uyum sağladığını göstermektedir. Sanay çeşidi ise sulama olmaksızın (S0) bile daha uzun bitkiler ve nispeten yüksek biyokütle üretimi ile dikkat çekmiştir. Ancak, Pioneer çeşidi optimum su koşulları altında en yüksek verim performansını sağlamıştır. Her iki çeşit de en yüksek verim değerlerini S2 sulama stratejisinde elde etmiş olup, etkili su yönetiminin ayçiçeği üretimi için önemini vurgulamaktadır. Deneysel verileri desteklemek amacıyla AquaCrop, DSSAT ve WOFOST olmak üzere üç farklı ürün simülasyon modeli kullanılarak verim tahminleri yapılmıştır. Bu modeller arasında, AquaCrop en doğru tahminleri sağlamış ve özellikle tam sulama koşullarında gözlemlenen verim değerleri ile güçlü bir uyum göstermiştir. Ancak, modeller arasında gözlemlenen tahmin farklılıkları, bu araçların farklı çevresel koşullara göre dikkatle değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, uygun tohum çeşitlerinin seçimi ve optimize edilmiş sulama stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi, iklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu su kıtlığı koşullarında tarımsal sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanması açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Farklı sulama rejimleri altında ürün verimlerinin doğru bir şekilde simüle edilmesi, karar verme süreçlerini destekleyebilir; ancak model çıktılarındaki değişkenlik, modellerin çevresel faktörler göz önüne alınarak doğrulanmasının gerekliliğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ayçiçeği
• Kısıtlı sulama
• Tohum çeşitleri
• Simülasyon modelleri
• İklim değişikliği
• Su yönetimi
• Verim tahmini

Destekleyen Kurum

TAGEM (Tarımsal Araştırmalar ve Politikalar Genel Müdürlüğü)

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKA/16/A13/P08/01/A.P-7

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma için etik kuruldan izin alınmasına gerek yoktur.

Kaynakça

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