Risk Matrix Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Local Forest Farmers in Buton, Indonesia

Öz

Agricultural livelihoods in eastern Indonesia are increasingly exposed to climate-related risks, posing challenges to sustainable development and the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 13: Climate Action). This study assesses climate change risks experienced by forest farmer groups (Kelompok Tani Hutan/KTH) in Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a qualitative thematic approach combined with a 5×5 risk matrix, data were collected from 250 farmers across three agroecological zones representing upland (Kapontori), midland (South Lasalimu), and lowland/coastal areas (Siotapina). Results show that crop failure represents the highest risk (score 20), particularly in upland rain-fed farms where water shortages and irregular rainfall are frequent. Income decline (16), groundwater depletion (15), and rising production costs (15) were categorized as very high risks, with stronger impacts reported in midland and coastal farming systems where irrigation access and market dependence increase production vulnerability. Medium risks include health impacts, malnutrition, and water quality deterioration, highlighting the linkage between climate stress and food and nutrition security. The spatial differences across agroecological zones indicate that climate risks are context-specific and require differentiated adaptation interventions rather than uniform policy responses. Strengthening water management, climate information services, livelihood diversification, and community-based preparedness should therefore be prioritized according to local risk profiles. These findings demonstrate that climate risks in Buton extend beyond agricultural production to socioeconomic and health dimensions. By applying a structured risk-prioritization framework, this study contributes to climate adaptation planning and supports policy strategies aligned with SDG targets related to resilient agriculture, poverty reduction, and sustainable rural livelihoods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• Risk management
• Smallholder farmers
• Buton regency
• Southeast Sulawesi
• Risk matrix
• Vulnerability

Destekleyen Kurum

Universitas Diponegoro

Proje Numarası

222-161/UN.7.D2/PP/IV/2025

Etik Beyan

There is no need to obtain permission from the ethics committee for this study.

Teşekkür

The authors sincerely thank the enumerators and respondents whose valuable input made this study possible. Financial support was provided by Diponegoro University through contract number 222-161/UN.7.D2/PP/IV/2025.

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