Investigating the Effect of Managing Scenarios of Flow Reduction and Increasing Irrigation Water Demand on Water Resources Allocation Using System Dynamics (Case Study: Zonouz Dam, Iran)

Yıl 2020, , 406 - 421, 29.09.2020

Mohammad Taghi Sattari , Rasoul Mirabbasi , Hossein Dolati , Fatemeh Shaker Sureh , Sajjad Ahmad

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.703167

Cited By: 6

Öz

Meeting the
healthy nutrition needs of the increasing population in the arid and semi-arid
climates of the different regions of the world such as Iran has become very
important for the agriculture ministry and water resources managers. In this
study, the system dynamics approach was used in the Vensim software environment
to allocate the water of the Zonouz dam reservoir for irrigation purposes in
the northwest of Iran. For this purpose, the existing surface water resources
in the basin and the amounts of agricultural water and environmental water
demands were determined and a water allocation plan was developed. In the first
stage of the study, it was found that if the existing water resources and
demands will not change, the amount of water stored in the reservoir will
provide approximately 91% of irrigation water demands and approximately 99% of
environmental water needs. The model created in the study was found to be
sensitive to reservoir inputs and irrigation water demands. Within the scope of
this study, the impact of two different scenarios that may occur as a result of
climate change and irrigation management in the operation of the reservoir was
evaluated. The decrease in the amount of water entering the reservoir in the
first scenario and the increase in irrigation water needs in the second
scenario are assumed within the next 10 years. According to the simulation
results of the first scenario, irrigation water demands will not be met
sufficiently with the decrease in the amount of water to be stored in the
reservoir due to the decrease in the amount of water entering the reservoir in
the next 10 years. According to the results of the second scenario, in the next
10 years due to possible climate change or if the cultivated area increases due
to some new agricultural policies; The amount of water stored in the reservoir
will not meet the irrigation demands and there will be water shortage in the
system. In this case, it is necessary to make changes in irrigation water
management and use new irrigation systems to save water. Based on the findings
of the study, it has been observed that the impact of all types of irrigation
water policies can be successfully evaluated within the scope of the system
dynamics approach.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Water Resources Allocation, System Dynamics, Vensim, Zonouz Dam, Iran

Kaynakça

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