EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE KURUMSAL YATIRIM KARARLARI: TÜRK İMALAT SEKTÖRÜ FİRMALARI ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin (EPU’nun) Borsa İstanbul’da (BIST’te) işlem gören firmaların yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Örneklem 103 adet imalat sektörü firmasından oluşmakta olup 2005 ve 2023 yılları arasındaki çeyreklik veriler kullanılmıştır. Belirsizlik göstergesi olarak Global Ekonomi Politikası Belirsizlik Endeksi (GEPU) seçilmiştir. Yöntem olarak panel veri analizi kullanılmış ve regresyon parametreleri hem Sabit Etkiler hem de Sabit Etkili Kantil Regresyon modelleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemde GEPU’nun şirketlerin kurumsal yatırım miktarına olan etkisi anlamlı ve negatiftir. Bu negatif etki uzun dönemde de anlamlı ve negatif kalmaya devam etmiştir. Bulgular, yatırımların geri döndürülemez ve ileriye dönük olduğuna dair varsayımlarda bulunan Reel Opsiyonlar Teorisi ile uyumludur. Eğer firmalar yatırım ortamında pozitif bir belirsizlik şokuyla karşılaşırsa yatırımlarını ya ertelemeyi ya da yapmamayı tercih etmektedirler. Çalışmadaki bulguların çıkarımları şu şekildedir: Şirketler yatırım kararı verirken yatırımı doğru bir zamanda yapabilmek için EPU’yu göz önünde bulundurmalıdırlar. EPU’nun kurumsal yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi hemen geçmemekte ve belirli bir süre devam etmektedir. Bu durum kurumsal yatırımlarda dalgalanmalara yol açmaktadır. Şirketler, analiz sonuçlarının da gösterdiği üzere yatırım kararı alırken sadece ülkelerindeki EPU’yu değil aynı zamanda global ekonomilerin EPU’larını da hesaba katmalıdırlar.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomi politikası belirsizliği
• reel opsiyonlar
• Oi-Hartman-Abel etkisi
• kurumsal yatırım kararları
• Türkiye

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND CORPORATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH MANUFACTURING FIRMS

Öz

The aim of this study is to investigate the short- and long-term impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the corporate investment decisions of Turkish manufacturing firms listed on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST). The sample consists of 103 manufacturing firms and the data period is from 2005 Q1 to 2023 Q4. We use the global EPU (GEPU) index to proxy for uncertainty. We use panel data analysis and estimate the regression parameters using both the fixed effects model and the fixed-effect quantile regression model. Our findings indicate a negative and statistically significant impact of GEPU on corporate investment decisions. Moreover, in the long-term, this negative impact persists and continues to hold significant. The findings are in line with the predictions of the real options theory, the assumptions of which are irreversibility and forward-looking nature of investments. When firms experience a positive uncertainty shock in the investment environment, they prefer to postpone their investments or disinvest. Our findings have some major implications. First, companies should incorporate EPU into their investment decisions to time their investment activities. Second, EPU can have persistent and prolonged effects that create fluctuations in corporate investment. Third, companies should consider global economies’ EPU besides local EPU as the empirical results of this study show.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic policy uncertainty
• real options
• Oi-Hartman-Abel effect
• corporate investment decisions
• Türkiye

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