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Türkiye'de Bütçe Gelir ve Harcama Tahmin Hatalarının Enflasyona Etkisi: 1975-2021 Dönemi Analizi

Yıl 2024, , 19 - 28, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.52693/jsas.1417919

Öz

Devlet bütçesinde yer alan tahminler ekonomik göstergelerle yakın olarak ilişkilidir. Bütçe tahminlerinin gerçeklikten sapması veya çeşitli nedenlerden kaynaklanan hatalar, belirli ekonomik göstergeleri önemli ölçüde etkiler. Olağanüstü durumlarda bu süreç, ekonomi politikası biçiminde bilinçli bir şekilde uygulanabilirken, çoğu durumda yanlış tahminler belirli ekonomik göstergelerde sapmalara yol açar. Bu çalışma, bu konuyu 1975-2021 dönemi Türkiye bağlamında ele almaktadır. Türkiye'de bütçe tahminleri genellikle yüksek oranlarda yanlış sonuçlar vermektedir. Prais-Winsten Regresyon yöntemi, gelir ve harcamadaki hataların enflasyon üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi olup olmadığını analiz etmek için kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre harcama hataları enflasyonist bir etki göstermektedir. Literatürde enflasyonun tahmin hataları üzerindeki etkisini inceleyen çalışmalar bulunmakla birlikte, enflasyonun tahmin hatalarından etkilenip etkilenmediğine odaklanan araştırmalarda önemli bir boşluk bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, bu boşluğu doldurmayı ve mevcut literatüre önemli bir katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • [1] P. Ulla, "Assessing Fiscal Risks through Long-Term Budget Projections," OECD Journal on Budgeting, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 127-187, 2006.
  • [2] W. J. Stevenson, Operations Management, 11 ed., New York: The McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2012.
  • [3] T. Leal, J. J. Pérez, M. Tujula and J.-P. Vidal, "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, vol. 29, no. 3, p. 347–386, 2008.
  • [4] V. Botrić and M. Vizek, "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia," Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 23-36, 2012.
  • [5] W. M. Gentry, "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information?," National Tax Journal, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 429-439, 1989.
  • [6] C. M. Allan, "Fiscal Marksmanship, 1951-1963," Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 317-327, 1965.
  • [7] A. Afonso and J. Silva, "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," ISEG Economics Working Paper No. 37/2012/DE/UECE, Lisbon, 2012.
  • [8] L. Sedmihradská and A. Čabla, "Budget Accuracy in Czech Municipalities and the Determinants of Tax Revenue Forecasting Errors," Ekonomická revue - Central European Review of Economic Issues, vol. 16, no. 4, p. 197–206, 2013.
  • [9] J. Aizenman and R. Hausmann, "The Impact of Inflation on Budgetary Discipline," Journal of Development Economics, vol. 63, no. 2, p. 425–449, 2000.
  • [10] M. Bağdigen, "How Accurate is Revenue Forecasting in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis," Yapi Kredi Economic Review, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 29-37, 2002.
  • [11] M. Bağdigen, "An Empirical Analysis of Accurate Budget Forecasting in Turkey," Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 190-201, 2005.
  • [12] M. Aslan and S. Bilge, "Türkiye de 1950 2006 Döneminde Bütçe Gelir Gider Yönetimi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Tek Parti ve Koalisyon Hükümetlerinin Karşılaştırması," Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari BilimlerFakültesi Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 265-288, 2009.
  • [13] S. Özcan, "Türkiye’de 1924-2012 Yılları Arası Genel Bütçe Gelir ve Gider Tahminlerinin Doğruluğunun Değerlendirilmesi," Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 701 - 724, 2017.
  • [14] S. Özcan and M. Tosun, "MilliEğitim Bakanlığı Bütçe Tahminlerinin Doğruluk İlkesi Açısından Değerlendirilmesi," Sosyoekonomi, vol. 22, no. 22, pp. 367-384, 2014 . [15] E. Yılmaz, "Vergi Gelirlerinin Tahminlenmesine Yönelik Ekonometrik Model," Vergi Dünyası, vol. 449, pp. 38-47, 2019.
  • [16] H. Erdoğdu and R. Yorulmaz, "Comparison of Tax Revenue Forecasting Models for Turkey," in 34. International Public Finance Conference , Antalya, 2019.
  • [17] H. Ünsal, A. Çalışkan, D. Koçak and Y. Ertürk, "Kamu Mali Yönetimi Kapsamında Çok Değişkenli Gri Tahmin Modeli ile Vergi Gelirleri Tahmini," Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. Özel Sayı, pp. 1104-1120, 2020.
  • [18] A. A. Yaşa, S. Şanlısoy and A. Özen, "Bütçe Tutarlılığı ile Politik İstikrarsızlık İlişkisi: Türkiye’de 1984- 2018 Dönemi Analizi," Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 44, pp. 337-354, 2020.
  • [19] J. G. MacKinnon, "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 601-618, 1996.
  • [20] E. Mehic, S. Silajdzic and V. Babic-Hodovic, "The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Southeast Europe," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 49, no. Supplement 1: Domestic and Global Policy Issues in Emerging Economies (January–February 2013), pp. 5-20, 2013.
  • [21] G. Önder and Z. Karal Önder, "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments Outflow From a Developing Country: the Case of Turkey," Business Management and Education, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 241-255, 2013.
  • [22] A. Thomas, L. Spataro and N. Mathew, "Pension funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 11, pp. 92-103, 2014.
  • [23] N. Beck and J. N. Katz, "What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," The American Political Science Review, vol. 89, no. 3, pp. 634-647, 1995.
  • [24] J. J. D. Langoyan and N. S. Ereno, "On the Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt and Prais-Winsten Regression for AR (1) Model," in Proceedings 2nd ISI Regional Statistics Conference, Indonesia, 2017.
  • [25] H. Bimanto, H. B. Notobroto and S. Melaniani, "Application of the Prais Winsten Method in Overcoming Autocorrelation on Life Expectation Factors," Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 32-40, 2023. [26] E. Canjels and M. W. Watson, "Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no. 2, p. 184–200, 1997.
  • [27] D. V. Vougas, "Prais–Winsten Algorithm for Regression with Second or Higher Order Autoregressive Errors," Econometrics, vol. 9, no. 3, 2021.
  • [28] K. R. Fabrizio, "Institutions, Capabilities, and Contracts: Make or Buy in the Electric Utility Industry," Organization Science, vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 1264-1281, 2012.
  • [29] A. K. Jorgenson and B. Clark, "Are the Economy and the Environment Decoupling? A Comparative International Study, 1960–2005," American Journal of Sociology, vol. 118, no. 1, pp. 1-44, 2012.
  • [30] C. Bottomley, M. Ooko, A. Gasparrini and R. Keogh, "In praise of Prais-Winsten: An Evaluation of Methods Used to Account for Autocorrelation in Interrupted Time Series," Statistics in Medicine, vol. 42, no. 8, pp. 1277-1288, 2023.
  • [31] R. Engle and J. G. Rangel, "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 1187-1222, 2008.
  • [32] B. Falk and A. Roy, "Forecasting Using the Trend Model with Autoregressive Errors," International Journal of Forecasting, no. 21, p. 291 – 302, 2005.
  • [33] P. Mishra, "Forecasting Natural Gas Price - Time Series and Nonparametric Approach," in World Congress on Engineering, London, 2012.
  • [34] L. Bernardelli and G. H. de Castro, "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence for Brazil," Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil, vol. 19, pp. 1-15, 2020.
  • [35] R. Fried and U. Gather, "Robust Trend Estimation for AR(1) Disturbances," Austrian Journal of Statistics, vol. 34, pp. 139-151, 2005.
  • [36] S. T. Akhter and H. Imran, "Geopolitics of International Relations for Pakistan, US Political Regimes and the US Bilateral Aid to Pakistan," GSTF Journal of Law and Social Sciences, vol. 4, no. 8, 2014.
  • [37] C. Anderson, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, 2021.
  • [38] R. Çelik, A. Keskin, and A. Keskin, “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Journal of Social Policy Conferences, no. 80, pp. 451–474, July 2021.
  • [39] M. A. Lapré and N. Tsikriktsis, "Organizational Learning Curves for Customer Dissatisfaction: Heterogeneity Across Airlines," Management Science, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 352-366, 2006.

The Impact of Budget Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting Errors on Inflation in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1975-2021 Period

Yıl 2024, , 19 - 28, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.52693/jsas.1417919

Öz

The forecasts embedded in the state budget both influence and are influenced by economic indicators. The divergence of budget forecasts from reality or the occurrence of inaccuracies due to various reasons significantly affects specific economic indicators. In the majority of cases, inaccurate forecasts lead to deviations in certain economic indicators. This study addresses this issue within the context of Turkey for the period 1975-2021. Budget forecasts in Turkey often yield inaccurate results. The Prais-Winsten regression method is employed to analyze whether errors in revenue and expenditure have any impact on inflation. The analysis reveals that expenditure errors have an inflationary impact. While there are studies in the literature examining the impact of inflation on forecasting errors, there is a notable gap in research focusing on the reverse scenario. This study aims to fill this gap and contribute significantly to the existing literature.

Kaynakça

  • [1] P. Ulla, "Assessing Fiscal Risks through Long-Term Budget Projections," OECD Journal on Budgeting, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 127-187, 2006.
  • [2] W. J. Stevenson, Operations Management, 11 ed., New York: The McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2012.
  • [3] T. Leal, J. J. Pérez, M. Tujula and J.-P. Vidal, "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, vol. 29, no. 3, p. 347–386, 2008.
  • [4] V. Botrić and M. Vizek, "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia," Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 23-36, 2012.
  • [5] W. M. Gentry, "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information?," National Tax Journal, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 429-439, 1989.
  • [6] C. M. Allan, "Fiscal Marksmanship, 1951-1963," Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 317-327, 1965.
  • [7] A. Afonso and J. Silva, "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," ISEG Economics Working Paper No. 37/2012/DE/UECE, Lisbon, 2012.
  • [8] L. Sedmihradská and A. Čabla, "Budget Accuracy in Czech Municipalities and the Determinants of Tax Revenue Forecasting Errors," Ekonomická revue - Central European Review of Economic Issues, vol. 16, no. 4, p. 197–206, 2013.
  • [9] J. Aizenman and R. Hausmann, "The Impact of Inflation on Budgetary Discipline," Journal of Development Economics, vol. 63, no. 2, p. 425–449, 2000.
  • [10] M. Bağdigen, "How Accurate is Revenue Forecasting in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis," Yapi Kredi Economic Review, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 29-37, 2002.
  • [11] M. Bağdigen, "An Empirical Analysis of Accurate Budget Forecasting in Turkey," Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 190-201, 2005.
  • [12] M. Aslan and S. Bilge, "Türkiye de 1950 2006 Döneminde Bütçe Gelir Gider Yönetimi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Tek Parti ve Koalisyon Hükümetlerinin Karşılaştırması," Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari BilimlerFakültesi Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 265-288, 2009.
  • [13] S. Özcan, "Türkiye’de 1924-2012 Yılları Arası Genel Bütçe Gelir ve Gider Tahminlerinin Doğruluğunun Değerlendirilmesi," Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 701 - 724, 2017.
  • [14] S. Özcan and M. Tosun, "MilliEğitim Bakanlığı Bütçe Tahminlerinin Doğruluk İlkesi Açısından Değerlendirilmesi," Sosyoekonomi, vol. 22, no. 22, pp. 367-384, 2014 . [15] E. Yılmaz, "Vergi Gelirlerinin Tahminlenmesine Yönelik Ekonometrik Model," Vergi Dünyası, vol. 449, pp. 38-47, 2019.
  • [16] H. Erdoğdu and R. Yorulmaz, "Comparison of Tax Revenue Forecasting Models for Turkey," in 34. International Public Finance Conference , Antalya, 2019.
  • [17] H. Ünsal, A. Çalışkan, D. Koçak and Y. Ertürk, "Kamu Mali Yönetimi Kapsamında Çok Değişkenli Gri Tahmin Modeli ile Vergi Gelirleri Tahmini," Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. Özel Sayı, pp. 1104-1120, 2020.
  • [18] A. A. Yaşa, S. Şanlısoy and A. Özen, "Bütçe Tutarlılığı ile Politik İstikrarsızlık İlişkisi: Türkiye’de 1984- 2018 Dönemi Analizi," Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 44, pp. 337-354, 2020.
  • [19] J. G. MacKinnon, "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 601-618, 1996.
  • [20] E. Mehic, S. Silajdzic and V. Babic-Hodovic, "The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Southeast Europe," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 49, no. Supplement 1: Domestic and Global Policy Issues in Emerging Economies (January–February 2013), pp. 5-20, 2013.
  • [21] G. Önder and Z. Karal Önder, "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments Outflow From a Developing Country: the Case of Turkey," Business Management and Education, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 241-255, 2013.
  • [22] A. Thomas, L. Spataro and N. Mathew, "Pension funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 11, pp. 92-103, 2014.
  • [23] N. Beck and J. N. Katz, "What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," The American Political Science Review, vol. 89, no. 3, pp. 634-647, 1995.
  • [24] J. J. D. Langoyan and N. S. Ereno, "On the Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt and Prais-Winsten Regression for AR (1) Model," in Proceedings 2nd ISI Regional Statistics Conference, Indonesia, 2017.
  • [25] H. Bimanto, H. B. Notobroto and S. Melaniani, "Application of the Prais Winsten Method in Overcoming Autocorrelation on Life Expectation Factors," Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 32-40, 2023. [26] E. Canjels and M. W. Watson, "Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no. 2, p. 184–200, 1997.
  • [27] D. V. Vougas, "Prais–Winsten Algorithm for Regression with Second or Higher Order Autoregressive Errors," Econometrics, vol. 9, no. 3, 2021.
  • [28] K. R. Fabrizio, "Institutions, Capabilities, and Contracts: Make or Buy in the Electric Utility Industry," Organization Science, vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 1264-1281, 2012.
  • [29] A. K. Jorgenson and B. Clark, "Are the Economy and the Environment Decoupling? A Comparative International Study, 1960–2005," American Journal of Sociology, vol. 118, no. 1, pp. 1-44, 2012.
  • [30] C. Bottomley, M. Ooko, A. Gasparrini and R. Keogh, "In praise of Prais-Winsten: An Evaluation of Methods Used to Account for Autocorrelation in Interrupted Time Series," Statistics in Medicine, vol. 42, no. 8, pp. 1277-1288, 2023.
  • [31] R. Engle and J. G. Rangel, "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," The Review of Financial Studies, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 1187-1222, 2008.
  • [32] B. Falk and A. Roy, "Forecasting Using the Trend Model with Autoregressive Errors," International Journal of Forecasting, no. 21, p. 291 – 302, 2005.
  • [33] P. Mishra, "Forecasting Natural Gas Price - Time Series and Nonparametric Approach," in World Congress on Engineering, London, 2012.
  • [34] L. Bernardelli and G. H. de Castro, "Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence for Brazil," Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil, vol. 19, pp. 1-15, 2020.
  • [35] R. Fried and U. Gather, "Robust Trend Estimation for AR(1) Disturbances," Austrian Journal of Statistics, vol. 34, pp. 139-151, 2005.
  • [36] S. T. Akhter and H. Imran, "Geopolitics of International Relations for Pakistan, US Political Regimes and the US Bilateral Aid to Pakistan," GSTF Journal of Law and Social Sciences, vol. 4, no. 8, 2014.
  • [37] C. Anderson, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, 2021.
  • [38] R. Çelik, A. Keskin, and A. Keskin, “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Journal of Social Policy Conferences, no. 80, pp. 451–474, July 2021.
  • [39] M. A. Lapré and N. Tsikriktsis, "Organizational Learning Curves for Customer Dissatisfaction: Heterogeneity Across Airlines," Management Science, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 352-366, 2006.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler, Finansal Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Berat Kara 0000-0002-6948-2197

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 11 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 18 Nisan 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

IEEE B. Kara, “The Impact of Budget Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting Errors on Inflation in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1975-2021 Period”, JSAS, sy. 9, ss. 19–28, Haziran 2024, doi: 10.52693/jsas.1417919.