Simulation and Full-Factorial Design Response Optimizer for Solar Water Heating Energy System

Öz

Solar water heating systems occupy a significant place among renewable energy technologies, and the complex interactions between design and operational parameters directly influence their efficiency. This study presents a comprehensive methodological framework that integrates Full Factorial Design (FFD), simulation modeling, and Response Optimization methods for the performance optimization of a solar water heating system. A detailed simulation model was developed for the climatic conditions of Phoenix, Arizona, utilizing the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, which was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). An FFD scheme was implemented to systematically examine the individual and interactive effects of two critical system performance parameters — daily hot water usage and total pipe length — on System Energy (kWh) and Capacity Factor (%). A total of 189 different design scenarios were simulated, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was performed on the resulting data. The ANOVA results revealed that daily hot water usage was the most statistically dominant factor affecting system output. At the same time, the main effect of total pipe length and the interaction between these two parameters were also statistically significant. In the following phase, Response Optimization was applied to objectively determine the optimal design conditions that simultaneously maximize both performance metrics. The optimization resulted in an optimal daily hot water usage of 312.66 kg/day and an optimal total pipe length of 46.41 meters, with a combined desirability value of 0.726. This integrated approach, which offers a more efficient, reliable, and evidence-based process compared to traditional trial-and-error methods, provides engineers and decision-makers with a quantitative guide to improve design decisions and maximize system performance in solar water heating systems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Solar Water Heating System;
• Design of Experiment
• Full-Factorial Design
• Response Optimization
• System Advisor Model (SAM)

Güneş Enerjili Su Isıtma Enerji Sistemi için Simülasyon ve Tam Faktöriyel Tasarım Tepki Optimizasyonu

Öz

Güneş enerjili su ısıtma sistemleri, yenilenebilir enerji teknolojileri arasında önemli bir yer tutmakta olup, tasarım ve işletme parametreleri arasındaki karmaşık etkileşimler verimliliklerini doğrudan etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma, bir güneş enerjili su ısıtma sisteminin performans optimizasyonu için Tam Faktöriyel Tasarım (FFD), simülasyon modellemesi ve Tepki Optimizasyonu (Response Optimization) yöntemlerini bütünleştiren kapsamlı bir metodolojik çerçeve sunmaktadır. Phoenix, Arizona iklim koşulları için Ulusal Yenilenebilir Enerji Laboratuvarı (NREL) tarafından geliştirilen System Advisor Model (SAM) yazılımı kullanılarak ayrıntılı bir simülasyon modeli geliştirilmiştir. Sistem performansına ait iki kritik parametrenin — günlük sıcak su kullanımı ve toplam boru uzunluğu — Sistem Enerjisi (kWh) ve Kapasite Faktörü (%) üzerindeki bireysel ve etkileşimli etkilerini sistematik olarak incelemek amacıyla bir FFD düzeni uygulanmıştır. Toplam 189 farklı tasarım senaryosu simüle edilmiş ve elde edilen veriler üzerinde Varyans Analizi (ANOVA) gerçekleştirilmiştir. ANOVA sonuçları, günlük sıcak su kullanımının sistem çıktısını etkileyen istatistiksel olarak en baskın faktör olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Aynı zamanda, toplam boru uzunluğunun ana etkisi ile bu iki parametre arasındaki etkileşimin de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Takip eden aşamada, her iki performans ölçütünün eş zamanlı olarak maksimize edilmesi amacıyla Tepki Optimizasyonu uygulanmış ve en uygun tasarım koşulları nesnel olarak belirlenmiştir. Optimizasyon sonucunda, 312,66 kg/gün günlük sıcak su kullanımı ve 46,41 metre toplam boru uzunluğu için 0,726 birleşik arzu edilebilirlik değeri elde edilmiştir. Geleneksel deneme-yanılma yöntemlerine kıyasla daha verimli, güvenilir ve kanıta dayalı bir süreç sunan bu bütünleşik yaklaşım, güneş enerjili su ısıtma sistemlerinde tasarım kararlarının iyileştirilmesi ve sistem performansının en üst düzeye çıkarılması için mühendisler ve karar vericilere nicel bir rehber sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güneş Enerjili Su Isıtma Sistemi
• Deney Tasarımı
• Tam Faktöriyel Tasarım
• Tepki Optimizasyonu
• Sistem Danışman Modeli (SAM)

Kaynakça

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