Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Öz

İşsizlik ve çevre kirliliği, çoğu ülke için uzun vadeli kalkınma hedeflerinin önündeki en büyük engellerden ikisini teşkil etmektedir. Literatürde bu iki sorunun aynı anda çözülebilmesi için ekonomik aktivitenin temel dinamiğinin fosil enerji kaynaklarından yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına evrilmesinin gerekliliği hususunda genel bir uzlaşı bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1991-2021 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak BRICS-T (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de) ülkelerinde yenilenebilir enerji (YEN) tüketiminin işsizlik üzerindeki dinamik etkileri incelenmektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, öncelikle çalışmada tahmin edilecek ekonometrik modele dahil edilen YEN tüketimi, fosil yakıt tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik değişkenleri arasındaki eş bütünleşme ilişkisi, bootstrap LM testine dayalı olarak araştırılmaktadır. Ardından, değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileşimler, yatay kesit bağımlılığının ve eğim heterojenliğinin söz konusu olduğu ve değişkenlerin farklı durağanlık özellikleri sergilediği durumlarda tutarlı sonuçlar üretebilen kesitsel olarak genişletilmiş ARDL (CS-ARDL) modelinden faydalanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Bootstrap LM test sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğu yönünde kanıt sunmaktadır. CS-ARDL model tahmininden elde edilen sonuçlar ise YEN tüketimi ile işsizlik arasında negatif yönlü ancak istatistiki açıdan anlamsız bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu, buna karşılık ekonomik büyüme ile fosil yakıt tüketiminin işsizliği kısa ve uzun dönemde anlamlı bir şekilde azalttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, BRICS-T ülkelerinde YEN tüketiminin işsizliği azaltacak potansiyelini gerçekleştirebilmesi için toplam enerji tüketimi içerisindeki payının henüz yeterli düzeye ulaşmadığını ve/veya söz konusu ülke ekonomilerinin geleneksel enerjiye bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar ayrıca, BRICS-T ülkelerinde Okun Yasasının geçerli olduğunu doğrulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi
• İşsizlik
• Fosil yakıt tüketimi
• Ekonomik büyüme
• BRICS-T ülkeleri

The Impacts of Renewable Energy Consumption on Unemployment: An Empirical Investigation on BRICS-T Countries

Öz

Unemployment and environmental pollution are two significant obstacles to achieving long-term development goals in most countries. The literature generally agrees that shifting the basic dynamic of economic activity from fossil energy to renewable energy sources is necessary to solve these two problems simultaneously. This paper examines the dynamic influences of renewable energy (REN) consumption on unemployment in BRICS-T (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, and Türkiye) countries using annual data spanning from 1991 to 2021. To this end, the bootstrap LM test is first used to evaluate the cointegration relationship between REN consumption, fossil fuel utilization, economic growth, and unemployment variables included in the econometric model to be estimated in the study. Then, the short and long-term connections between the analyzed variables are explored using the cross-sectionally augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) model, which can produce consistent results when there is cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity and when the variables exhibit different stationarity properties. Findings from the bootstrap LM test provide evidence of a long run cointegration association between the variables. Moreover, the CS-ARDL model estimation results demonstrate a negative but statistically insignificant connection between REN consumption and unemployment and that economic growth and fossil fuel usage significantly reduce unemployment in the short and long run. These outcomes suggest that the proportion of REN in total energy consumption in BRICS-T nations has yet to reach a sufficient level to realize its potential to reduce unemployment and/or that the economies of these countries depend on traditional energy. The findings also confirm the validity of Okun's Law in the sample nations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable energy consumption
• Unemployment
• Nonrenewable energy consumption
• Economic Growth
• BRICS-T countries

Kaynakça

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