İşsizlik Histerisi Paradoksu: Küresel Araştırma Eğilimlerine Yönelik Bibliyometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

İşsizlik histerisi alanında gerçekleştirilen çalışmalar, özellikle ekonomik kriz dönemlerinde ülkelerin karşılaştığı işsizlik sorunuyla birlikte literatürde artan bir ilgi görmüştür. Literatürde işsizlik histerisi üzerine yapılan çalışmalar oldukça zengin olmasına rağmen, bu alana yönelik kapsamlı bir bibliyometrik analiz çalışmasına rastlanmamıştır. Bu çalışma, 1890-2025 Şubat dönemi için işsizlik histerisi literatürüne odaklanarak, ilgili alandaki bilgi birikiminin kapsamlı bir değerlendirmesini yapmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada bibliyometrik analiz kapsamında kullanılan performans analizi ve bilim haritalaması teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Web of Science (WoS) veri tabanında indekslenen 383 belgeye dayanan bulgular, işsizlik histerisi alanında büyüyen bir literatür olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle 2006 yılından itibaren işsizlik histerisi alanındaki yayınlar artış göstermektedir. Küresel finansal krizler ve Avrupa borç krizinin ardından 2014-2018 yılları arasında işsizlik histerisi alanındaki makale sayılarının zirve yaptığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca, farklı coğrafi bölgelerde işsizlik histerisi konusunun benzer teorik çerçevelerle ele alındığı tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma yoğunluğunun en yüksek olduğu ülkeler incelendiğinde, ağırlıklı olarak gelişmiş ülkelerin öne çıktığı görülmektedir. "Hysteresis" anahtar kelimesinin sıklıkla "persistence", "time-series" ve "unit-root tests" anahtar kelimeleriyle birlikte kullanıldığı; buna karşın "unemployment" anahtar kelimesinin ise makroekonomik değişkenlerle birlikte ele alındığı gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma bibliyometrik analiz yöntemleri aracılığıyla işsizlik histerisi literatürünün zaman içindeki evrimini ve araştırma eğilimlerini sistematik bir şekilde ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, gelecekteki araştırmalara yol gösterici nitelikte önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İşsizlik
• Histeri
• İşsizlik Histerisi
• Bibliyometrik Analizi

The Unemployment Hysteresis Puzzle: A Bibliometric Analysis of Global Research Patterns

Öz

Studies on unemployment hysteresis have garnered increasing attention in the literature, particularly during periods of economic crises when countries face persistent unemployment problems. Although the literature on unemployment hysteresis is extensive, no comprehensive bibliometric analysis focusing on this field has been identified. This study aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the knowledge accumulated in the unemployment hysteresis literature between 1890 and February 2025. The study employs bibliometric analysis methods, including performance analysis and science mapping techniques. Findings based on 383 documents indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) database reveal a growing body of literature in the field of unemployment hysteresis. Notably, there has been a significant increase in publications since 2006. The number of articles peaked between 2014 and 2018, following the global financial crises and the European debt crisis. Furthermore, it has been determined that the issue of unemployment hysteresis is addressed with similar theoretical frameworks across different geographical regions. When examining the countries with the highest research intensity, developed countries predominantly stand out. The keyword "hysteresis" is frequently associated with "persistence," "time-series," and "unit-root tests," while the keyword "unemployment" is often linked to macroeconomic variables. In conclusion, this study systematically presents the evolution and research trends of the unemployment hysteresis literature through bibliometric analysis methods. The findings offer valuable insights to guide future research in this field.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Unemployment
• Hysteria
• Unemployment Hysteresis
• Bibliometric Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Arestis, P. and Mariscal, I. B. F. (1999). Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment. Economics Letters, 65(2), 149-156.
2. Arık, M., Akcan, M. B. and Azazi, H. (2024). İşsizlik ve istihdam alanında bibliyometrik haritalama analizi ile uluslararası ticaret çalışmalarının incelenmesi. İstihdam, İşsizlik, İşgücü Alanında Güncel Çalışmalar, 5.
3. Aria, M. and Cuccurullo, C. (2017). Bibliometrix: an R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of Informetrics, 11(4), 959-975. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007
4. Blanchard, O. J. and Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis in unemployment. In Economic models of Trade Unions. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.
5. Blanchard, O. J. and Summers, L. H. (1987). Hysteresis in unemployment. European Economic Review, 31(1-2), 288-295.
6. Bozkurt, A. A. and Gökmenoğlu, M. (2023). Enflasyon ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi konu alan çalışmaların bibliyometrik ağ analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(2), 78-110. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1185966
7. Brunello, G. (1990). Hysteresis and “the Japanese unemployment problem”: a preliminary investigation. Oxford Economic Papers, 42(3), 483-500.
8. Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L. and Tamarit, C. (2005). Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: a univariate approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 33(3), 584-603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2005.04.001.

9. Camarero, M., Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, J. L. and Tamarit, C. (2006). Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(2), 167-182.
10. Camarero, M., Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, J. L. and Tamarit, C. (2008). Unemployment hysteresis in transition countries: evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 620-635. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00476.x.
11. Caporale, G. M. and Gil‐Alana, L. A. (2007). Nonlinearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(4), 521-544. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00449.x.
12. Caporale, G. M. and Gil-Alana, L. A. (2008). Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: fractional integration and structural breaks. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52(11), 4998-5013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2008.04.023.
13. Chang, T., Lee, K. C., Nieh, C. C. and Wei, C. C. (2005). An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten european countries: panel SURADF approach. Applied Economics Letters, 12(14), 881-886. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500365871
14. Chang, T. (2011). Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: stationary test with a fourier function. Economic Modelling, 28(5), 2208-2214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.002
15. Cheng, K. M. (2022). Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: evidence and policy implications. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 86, 230-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.07.006.
16. Cherif, S. and Gourida, S. (2024). Technological unemployment in terms of global labor market imbalances: a bibliometric analysis. In Proceedings of the 19th European Conference on Management, Leadership and Governance. Academic Conferences International.
17. Collins, T. (2021). The structure of OECD unemployment. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 23(7). 247-255.
18. Coruche, A. F. (2022). Economic growth and unemployment: a bibliometric analysis approach (Master's thesis), Universidade do Porto, Portugal.
19. Cross, R., Hutchinson, H. and Yeoward, S. (1990). The natural rate, hysteresis, and the duration composition of unemployment in the US. Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 89-116.
20. Cuestas, J. C. and Gil-Alana, L. A. (2011). Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in european transition economies. Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Sheffield.
21. Cuestas, J. C., Gil-Alana, L. A. and Staehr, K. (2011). A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(4), 514-532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2011.09.002.
22. Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N. and Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: an overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 133, 285-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070
23. Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.
24. Furuoka, F. (2015). Unemployment hysteresis in the “Nordic Kitten”: evidence from five Estonian Regions. Panoeconomicus, 62(5), 631-642. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1505631F.
25. Furuoka, F. (2017a). A new test for analysing hysteresis in European unemployment. Applied Economics Letters, 24(15), 1102-1106. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1257209
26. Furuoka, F. (2017b). A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis. Empirical Economics, 53(3), 1253-1280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1164-7
27. Furuoka, F., Gil-Alana, L. A., Yaya, O. S., Aruchunan, E. and Ogbonna, A. E. (2024). A new fractional integration approach based on neural network nonlinearity with an application to testing unemployment hysteresis. Empirical Economics, 66(6), 2471-2499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02540-5
28. Gil‐Alana, L. A. and Brian Henry, S. G. (2003). Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(2), 221-239.
29. Gil-Alana, L. A., González-Blanch, M. J. and Poza, C. (2024). Labour market mismatches in G7 countries: a fractional integration approach. Applied Economics, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2024.2305620
30. Groenewold, N. and Hagger, A. J. (1998). The natural unemployment rate in Australia since the seventies. Economic Record, 74(224), 24-35.
31. Gupta, R. (2024). Untangling the nexus of entrepreneurship and unemployment: a bibliometric review. Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, 14(1), 30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40497-024-00400-9
32. Gutiérrez-Salcedo, M., Martínez, M. Á., Moral-Munoz, J. A., Herrera-Viedma, E. and Cobo, M. J. (2018). Some bibliometric procedures for analyzing and evaluating research fields. Applied Intelligence, 48, 1275-1287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-017-1105-y
33. Güriş, B., Tiftikçigil, B. Y. and Tıraşoğlu, M. (2017). Testing for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests. Quality & Quantity, 51(1), 35-46. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0292-z
34. Haydaroğlu, C. (2022). İşsizlik konusunda yazılmış lisansüstü tezlerin bibliyometrik analizi. Turkish Studies-Economics, Finance, Politics, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.57895
35. Jaeger, A. and Parkinson, M. (1994). Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates. European Economic Review, 38(2), 329-342.
36. Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati, A. and Azam, M. (2020). Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 100838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.08.021
37. Lee, C. C. and Chang, C. P. (2008). Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: centurial time series evidence with structural breaks. Economic Modelling, 25(2), 312-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.002.
38. Li, J., Burnham, J. F., Lemley, T. and Britton, R. M. (2010). Citation analysis: comparison of web of science®, scopus™, scifinder®, and google scholar. Journal of Electronic Resources in Medical Libraries, 7(3), 196-217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15424065.2010.505518
39. Lin, C. H., Kuo, N. F. and Yuan, C. D. (2008). Nonlinear vs. nonstationary of hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from OECD economies. Applied Economics Letters, 15(11), 905-909. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850600949145
40. Mednik, M., Rodriguez, C. M. and Ruprah, I. J. (2008). Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from Latin America. Working Paper: OVE/WP-04/08.
41. Mitchell, W. F. (1993). Testing for unit roots and persistence in OECD unemployment rates. Applied Economics, 25(12), 1489-1501.
42. Neto, A. and Silva, S. T. (2013). Growth and unemployment: a bibliometric analysis on mechanisms and methods. FEP Economics and Management, 1-29.
43. Neudorfer, P., Pichelmann, K. and Wagner, M. (1990). Hysteresis, NAIRU and long term unemployment in Austria. In Hysteresis Effects in Economic Models, Physica-Verlag HD, 109-121.
44. Nnyanzi, J. B., Kilimani, N. and Oryema, J. B. (2024). Hysteresis in youth unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa: focus on gender, income, and region. The Journal of Developing Areas, 58(2), 91-126.
45. Noyons, E. C. M., Moed, H. F. and Luwel, M. (1999). Combining mapping and citation analysis for evaluative bibliometric purposes: a bibliometric study. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 50(2), 115-131.
46. OECD (2013), OECD employment outlook 2013, OECD Publishing, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2013-en
47. OECD (2024), OECD employment outlook 2024: the net-zero transition and the labour market, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ac8b3538-en
48. Omay, T., Shahbaz, M. and Stewart, C. (2021). Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? new evidence using a fourier panel unit root test. Empirica, 48(4), 875-901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-021-09510-z
49. Öztürk, O., Kocaman, R. and Kanbach, D. K. (2024). How to design bibliometric research: an overview and a framework proposal. Review of Managerial Science, 18(11), 3333-3361. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-024-00738-0
50. Phelps, E. S. (1968). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time: reply. Economica, 35(139), 288-296.
51. Phelps, E. S. (1994). Structural slumps: the modern equilibrium theory of unemployment, interest, and assets. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
52. Ralph, A. and Arora, A. (2023), A bibliometric study of reference literature on youth unemployment, Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, 17(6), 1338-1367. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEC-04-2022-0062
53. Røed, K. (1996). Unemployment hysteresis-macro evidence from 16 OECD countries. Empirical Economics, 21, 589-600.
54. Topçuoğlu, E., Oktaysoy, O., Erdoğan, S. U. and Karatepe, S. G. (2023). İşsizlik ve girişimcilik kavramlarına bibliyometrik bakış. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 15(2), 1276-1292.
55. Trejo, P. V. and Gil-Alana, L. A. (2021). Unemployment persistence in Europe. evidence from 27 countries, University of Huelva & International University of Andalusia.
56. Xie, H., Chang, T., Grigorescu, A. and Hung, K. (2018). Revisit hysteresis unemployment in Eastern European countries using quantile regression. Ekonomický Časopis, 66(5), 522-537.
57. University Ranking by Academic Performance (2024), URAP 2023-2024 Dünya alan sıralaması basın bildirisi. (https://newtr.urapcenter.org/cdn/storage/PDFs/2v8yb9noNnfTi6GTa/original/2v8yb9noNnfTi6GTa.pdf)