Karmaşık Karşılıklı Bağımlılık Teorisiyle Türkiye'nin AB'ye Katılım Sürecindeki Durgunluğun Üstesinden Gelmek İçin Ulaştırma Merkezli Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği’ne katılım süreci uzun süreli bir durgunluk aşamasına girmiştir. Tam üyelik müzakerelerinin başlamasından yirmi yıl sonra, 2025 itibarıyla süreç siyasi ivmesinin büyük bölümünü kaybetmiştir. Bu tıkanıklık, çok sayıda siyasi, hukuki, kurumsal, sosyal, kültürel ve ekonomik faktör tarafından şekillendirilmiştir. En kalıcı engellerden biri, Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti’ni tanımaması ve Kıbrıs bağlantılı ulaştırma kısıtlamalarının devam etmesidir. Bu makale, katılım çerçevesindeki bu özel kurumsal tıkanıklığa ulaştırma merkezli ve analitik olarak sınırlandırılmış bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır. Yöntemsel olarak çalışma, nitel belge analizi ve karşılaştırmalı vaka analizini kullanmaktadır. Avrupa Komisyonu Türkiye Raporları, Konsey kararları, ulaştırma politikası belgeleri, Ankara Anlaşması ve Ek Protokolü, deniz taşımacılığı bağlantısallık göstergeleri ve seçilmiş karşılaştırmalı vakalar incelenmektedir. Karmaşık karşılıklı bağımlılık teorisine dayanarak makale, Kıbrıs bağlantılı ulaştırma kısıtlamalarının yalnızca diplomatik tanıma meselesi olarak değil, limanlar, gemiler, gümrük süreçleri, AB kurumları, ticari aktörler ve deniz taşımacılığı ağlarını içeren işlevsel bir sorun olarak da anlaşılması gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Makale ayrıca, tartışmalı veya sınırlı tanıma koşullarında ticari ya da kurumsal angajmanın sürdüğü Tayvan–Çin, İsrail–Arap devletleri ve Kosova–AB üye devletleri vakalarıyla analitik paralellikler kurmaktadır. Çalışma, ulaştırma politikasının Kıbrıs sorununu çözebileceğini veya Türkiye’nin AB’ye katılımını garanti edeceğini iddia etmemektedir. Bunun yerine, dar kapsamlı teknik-ticari bir açılımın belirlenebilir bir ulaştırma bağlantılı engeli azaltabileceğini ve yenilenmiş katılım odaklı angajman için sınırlı bir işlevsel alan yaratabileceğini ileri sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ulaştırma
• Türkiye'nin Üyeliği
• Karmaşık Karşılıklı Bağımlılık Teorisi
• Kıbrıs
• Ortak Ulaştırma Politikası

A Transport-Centric Approach to Overcoming Stagnation in Türkiye's EU Accession Through Complex Interdependence Theory

Öz

Türkiye’s accession process to the European Union has effectively entered a prolonged phase of stagnation. As of 2025, two decades after the launch of full membership negotiations, the process has lost much of its political momentum. This deadlock has been shaped by multiple political, legal, institutional, social, cultural, and economic factors. One of the most persistent obstacles concerns Türkiye’s non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus and the continuation of Cyprus-related transport restrictions. This article offers a transport-centred and analytically limited approach to this specific institutional blockage within the accession framework. Methodologically, the study employs qualitative document analysis and comparative case analysis. It examines European Commission Türkiye Reports, Council decisions, transport policy documents, the Ankara Agreement and its Additional Protocol, maritime connectivity indicators, and selected comparative cases. Drawing on complex interdependence theory, the article argues that Cyprus-related transport restrictions should not be understood merely as a diplomatic recognition issue, but also as a functional problem involving ports, vessels, customs procedures, EU institutions, trade actors, and maritime connectivity networks. The article also draws analytical parallels with Taiwan–China, Israel–Arab states, and Kosovo–EU member state cases, where commercial or institutional engagement has continued under contested or limited recognition. The study does not claim that transport policy can resolve the Cyprus dispute or guarantee Türkiye’s EU accession. Rather, it argues that a narrowly framed technical-commercial opening could reduce one identifiable transport-related impediment and create a limited functional space for renewed accession-related engagement.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Transportation
• Türkiye's Accession
• Complex Interdependence Theory
• Cyprus
• Common Transport Policy

Etik Beyan

The research is based on publicly available data, adhering to ethical standards. All sources are properly attributed and cited.

Teşekkür

Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi'nin başta editörü olmak üzere makalemize emek veren tüm çalışanlara ve akademisyenlere teşekkür ederiz.

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