Potential Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Tourism Industry of Pakistan: A Review

Yıl 2020, , 601 - 611, 31.10.2020

Lala Rukh Farukh Khan Nafees Mohammad

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.740036

Cited By: 2

Öz

In this article an attempt has been made to review the historic trends in foreign and domestic tourism in Pakistan with the aim to calculate expected loss due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose grass domestic product (GDP) growth in relation to tourism activities and COVID-19 cases were analyzed. This review revealed that tourist activities in Pakistan are growing with high level of fluctuations. After a spill of war on terrorism, Pakistan re-initiated domestic tourism 2009. The 2010 flood destroyed the road network and tourism was waned again. In 2011 tourism department re-framed tourist activities again. As per estimate, during 2012-19, Pakistan invested more than 90 billion of rupees on motorways, hotels, parks and archaeological sites and was looking forward toward 2020 summer season for some betterment in tourism, but COVID-19 appeared on the world horizon and all sorts of economic activities, including tourism were brought to zero. During 1994-2019 tourism contributed 5.7 to 7.1 % to the gross domestic products (GDP) of Pakistan. The loss is equivalent to US$ 20.18 billion. Pakistan will suffer for another few years. Even if the vaccine for COVID-19 arrives in the market, the loss will be irreparable. We have to learn survival in the presence of coronavirus, and prepare standard operating procedure (SOPs) for each business including tourism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, Domestic Tourism, War Against Terror, Foreign Tourists, Tourism Industry, Economic Loss

Destekleyen Kurum

University of Peshawar

Proje Numarası

00000

Teşekkür

Respected editor This paper is in response of the present pandemic of COVID-19. It is part of routine academic activities and was not a funded study. It is prepare for the purpose to share information and experiences from Pakistan with other part of the world with the aim to handle the ongoing COVID-19 hazard effectively. Pakistan is in the state of lockdown as preventive measures. It is important to share it with other developing countries with the idea to learn from the experience of each other. If you point out any deficiency, I am here to provide that information. Besides, if required I am willing to re-visit the manuscript for necessary correction. I hope that the article will be considered for further processing. With regards Yours Sincerely Dr. M. Nafees Professor, University of Peshawar

Kaynakça

• 1. Dwyer, L. (2005). 27 Trends underpinning global tourism in the coming decade. Digitally signed by TeAM YYePG DN: cn= TeAM YYePG, c= US, o= TeAM YYePG, ou= TeAM YYePG, 529.Global tourism, third edition Editied by William F. Theobald, 2005 2. Delener, N. (2010). Current trends in the global tourism industry: evidence from the United States. Revista de Administração Pública, 44(5), 1125-1137.https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-76122010000500006 3. Cohen, E. (2012). Globalization, global crises and tourism. Tourism recreation research, 37(2), 103-111. 4. Papatheodorou, A., Rosselló, J., & Xiao, H. (2010). Global economic crisis and tourism: Consequences and perspectives. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 39-45. 5. Bianchi, R. V. (2002). Towards a new political economy of global tourism. Tourism and development: Concepts and issues, 265-99. 6. Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 281-293. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40376284 7. Israr, M., M.M. Shafi, N. Ahmad, N. Khan, S. Baig and Z.H. Khan. 2009. Eco tourism in Northern Pakistan and challenges perspective of stakeholders. Sarhad J. Agric. 25(1): 113-120. 8. Haseeb, M., Xinhailu, A. B., Khan, J. Z., Ahmad, I., & Malik, R. (2011). Construction of earthquake resistant buildings and infrastructure implementing seismic design and building code in northern Pakistan 2005 earthquake affected area. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(4):168-177. 9. Asgary, A., Anjum, M. I., & Azimi, N. (2012). Disaster recovery and business continuity after the 2010 flood in Pakistan: Case of small businesses. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2, 46-56.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.08.001 10. Raza, S. A., & Jawaid, S. T. (2013). Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 33, 65-70.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.008 11. Abdur Rahman Aleemi & Muhammad Azeem Qureshi . 2015. Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan International Journal of Research. 2(2): 14011412:http://internationaljournalofresearch.org/ 12. Dawn, 2018. 1.75m tourists visited Pakistan in 2017, says PTDC. DAWN Daily News paper April 25, 2018. https://www.dawn.com/news/1403800 13. Muhammad Israr, Malik Muhammad Shafi, Naushad Khan, Nafees Ahmad, Sultan Baig And Zafar Hayat Khan, 2009.Eco Tourism In Northern Pakistan And Challenges Perspective Of Stakeholders. Sarhad J. Agric. Vol.25, No.1, 2009 14. Sanaullah, F., Rabbi, S. A., Khan, Z., & Zamin, M. (2020). Visitors’ willingness to pay for conservation of the biodiversity and tourism in Kalam valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 36(1), 81-94. 15. Arshad, M. I., Iqbal, M. A., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). Pakistan tourism industry and challenges: a review. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(2), 121-132. 16. Arif, A. M., & Shikirullah, A. S. (2019). Tourism problems in Pakistan: An analysis of earlier investigations.WALIA journal 35(1): 122-126, 2019 Available online at www.Waliaj.com 17. Suhail, M & Khalid, M. 2011. Vision Document for Tourism Sector of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Agricultural Marketing Legal Framework. United States Agency for International Development. 18. Sanaullah, F. Rabbi, S. Ali, Z. Khan and M. Zamin. 2020. Visitors’ willingness to pay for conservation of the biodiversity and tourism in Kalam valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 36(1): 81-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.17582/journal.sja/2020/36.1.81.94 19. Iftikhar Ahmad, 2020. COVID-19 and Labour Market. Centre for Labour research. URL: https://clr.org.pk/covid-19-labour-market/ 20. United Nation, 1994. The Culture Impact of International Tourism in Pakistan. The United Natioan, New york. 21. The News, Janurary 13, 2020. National Tourism Strategy for 2020 on the cards.The dailhy news, Islsamabad, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/597839-national-tourism-strategy-for-2020-on-the-cards 22. Abid Ali ,Dec 27, 2019. Pakistan announces its 10-year national tourism policy Officials say tourism will help create jobs for youth. SAMAA News network. https://www.samaa.tv/news/2019/12/pakistan-announces-its-10-year-national-tourism-policy/\ 23. Rana Mushtaq, MAY 25, 2016. Cost of Hazara Motorway enhanced to Rs 35 billion. Daily time Islamabad. https://dailytimes.com.pk/80259/cost-of-hazara-motorway-enhanced-to-rs-35-billion. 24. The News, December 2019. Swat Motorway Phase-II: KP CM wants modalities for project worked out https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/578341-swat-motorway-phase-ii 25. RiazHaq. H, Jan 19, 2018. Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry is Boomi.World Travel and Tourism Council. http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/pakistans-20-billion-tourism-industry.html 26. Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2017. Annunyual Development Program. Planning and Development Department, Govt. of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, page 236.http://www. pndkp.gov.pk 27. Rolf Paasch and Sidra Saeed. 2018. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 18TH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT Position Paper on Devolution of Tourism in Pakistan” Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/pakistan/14791.pdf 28. Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2019. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa integrated tourism development project: environmental and social management framework. Department of Tourism, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/pt/654151551246028495/pdf/Environmental-and-Social-Management-Framework.pdf 29. Directorate fo tourist services, 2010.The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Hotel Restaurants Amendment Act 2013 https://dts.gkp.pk/ 30. Directorate fo tourist services, 2010.The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Hotel Restaurants Amendment Act 2013; https://dts.gkp.pk/ 31. Nafees M, Khan F. Pakistan’s Response to COVID-19 Pandemic and Efficacy of Quarantine and Partial Lockdown: A Review. Electron J Gen Med. 2020;17(6):em240. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejgm/7951 32. Sardar, T., Nadim, S. S., & Chattopadhyay, J. (2020). Assessment of 21 days lockdown effect in some states and overall India: a predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.03487. 33. Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown (No.w26981). National Bureau of Economic Research.DOI:10.3386/w26981