Tarihsel Süreçte Yaşanan Pandemilerin Ekonomik ve Sosyal Etkileri

Yıl 2020, , 612 - 632, 31.10.2020

Armağan Türk , Berna Ak Bingül , Rengin Ak

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.766717

Cited By: 22

Öz

Salgınlar tarihin her döneminde toplumsal etki yaratmıştır. Yakın bir tarihe kadar salgınların neden kaynaklandığı konusundaki bilgi eksikliği salgınların toplum üzerindeki etkisini arttırmış ve bunun sonucu olarak çıktığı bölgelerde yaygınlık göstererek kitlesel ölümlere yol açmıştır. Ölüm ve hastalıkların yanı sıra, salgınlar insanların sosyal yaşantılarını, tüketim alışkanlıklarını, yaşam tarzlarını ve ekonomik faaliyetlerini de etkilemiştir. Salgınların etkisinin bu kadar büyük olmasındaki temel neden ise, salgının ne zaman çıkacağı ne kadar yayılacağı ve ne kadar süreceği konusunda yaşanan belirsizliktir.
Küreselleşme olgusu ve yarattığı ticari entegrasyon sonucu ülkeler arasındaki ticari ilişkilerin gelişmesi, ticari ve ticari olmayan seyahatlerin artması salgınların ortaya çıktıkları yerden hızlı bir şekilde dünya geneline yayılmasına neden olmuştur. Salgınların sosyal yaşantı üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri olmakla birlikte daha çok ekonomik kayıplarından dolayı ekonomik etkileri üzerinde durulmuştur. Ticari entegrasyon sonucunda ülkelerin ekonomik kayıpları ticari ilişkilerden dolayı diğer ülkeleri de etkilemektedir. Ekonomik kayıpların artması sosyal yaşantının ekonomik nedenlerden dolayı da değişmesine yol açmıştır. Literatürde yer alan çalışmalarda salgınların genelde ülkelerin ekonomik gücünü zayıflatarak kriz ortamı yarattığı görülmektedir. Salgınların ülkelerin ve küresel ekonomi üzerindeki doğrudan etkileri yanında dolaylı etkileri de oldukça önemlidir. Salgınların ekonomiler üzerindeki doğrudan etkilerinin hesaplanması daha kolay iken dolaylı etkilerinin tam olarak hesaplanması mümkün olmamaktadır. Ayrıca doğrudan etkiler salgın süresince görülürken dolaylı etkiler daha uzun bir döneme yayılabilmektedir.
Bu çalışmada, tarihsel süreç içerisinde ülkeleri derinden etkileyen küresel salgınlar ele alınmıştır. Bu kapsamda salgınların ülkelerin ekonomik ve sosyal yapıları üzerindeki değişim ve etkileri değerlendirilmiş ve olası salgınlara karşı öngörüde bulunulması amaçlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Salgın,, Pandemi,, Covid-19,

Kaynakça

• Aberth, John (2010), From the Brink of the Apocalypse: Confronting Famine, War, Plague, and Death in the Later Middle Ages. Second Edition, New York: Routledge, 1-327.
• AEGON (2020), “Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Crisis: What can we learn from past pandemics?”, https://www.aegonassetmanagement.com/us/thought-leadership/blog/macro-research/economic-impact-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-what-can-we-learn-from-past-pandemics/.
• Alfani, Guido (2011), “Plague In Seventeenth Century Europe And The Declıne Of Italy: An Epıdemıologıcal Hypothesıs”, European Review of Economic History, October, 1-47.
• Alfani, Guido (2016), “Plague and Long-term Development: The Lasting Effects of the 1629-30 Epidemic on The Italian Cities”, EHES Working Paper, No. 106, November, 1-37.
• Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A., Alimuddin Zumla, Ziad A. Memish (2014), “Travel implications of emerging coronaviruses: SARS and MERS-CoV”, Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 12, 422-428.
• BBC (2005), “Past Pandemics That Ravaged Europe”, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/ health/4381924.stm
• Bean, ohn Malcolm William, (1963), “Plague, Population and Economic Decline in England in the Later Middle Ages”, The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1963), pp. 423-437
• Begley, Sharon (2013), “Flu-conomics: The next pandemic could trigger global recession”, REUTERS, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-reutersmagazine-davos-flu-economy/flu-conomics-the-next-pandemic-could-trigger-global-recession-idUSBRE90K0F820130121
• Bell, Clive, Maureen Lewis (2004), “The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New”, World Economics, vol. 5(4), October, 1-34.
• Butler, Creon (2020), “COVID-19: How Do We Re-open the Economy?”, https://www.chathamhouse. org/expert/comment/covid-19-how-do-we-re-open-economy, 21 Nisan, (Erişim tarihi:21.06.2020).
• CBC (2010), “Cholera's Seven Pandemics”, https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/cholera-s-seven-pandemics-1.758504.
• CDC (2004), “Basic Information about SARS”, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January, 1-3.
• CDC (2014), “Cost of Ebola Epidemic”, https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/impact-ebola-economy.pdf.
• CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2019), “https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html”
• CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2019), “40 Years of Ebola Virus Disease around the World”, https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.htm.
• Clark, William R. (2008), Bracıng For Armageddon?, Oxford University Press, 1-211.
• Cohen, Myron S., Nick Hellmann, Jay A. Levy, Kevin DeCock, Joep Lange (2008), “The spread, treatment, and prevention of HIV-1: evolution of a global pandemic”, The Journal of Clinical Investigation, Volume 118 Number 4 April, 1244-1254.
• Decameron (2014), “Social and Economic Effects of the Plague”, https://www.brown.edu/ Departments/Italian_Studies/dweb/plague/effects/social.php
• Delivorias, Angelos, Nicole Scholz (2020), “Economic impact of epidemics and pandemics”, European Parliamentary Research Service, 1-10.
• Dielman, Joseph L. (2018), “Spending on health and HIV/AIDS: domestic health spending and development assistance in 188 countries, 1995–2015”, The Lancet, Vol 391 May 5, 1799-1829.
• Dura, Cihan (2011), “Altın Ve Gümüş Talanı Avrupa'yı Nasıl Değiştirdi”, http://www.cihandura.com/tr/makale/-ALTIN-VE-GUMUS-TALANI-AVRUPA-YI-NASIL-DEGISTIRDI-697.
• Elgin,C. ve Başbuğ,G. (2020), Covıd-19 Pandemisinin Yol Açtığı Ekonomık Krize Karşı Açıklanan Ekonomik Teşvık Paketleri: Bir Karşılaştırma ve Türkıye Örneğı,İstanbul Politik Araştımalar Enstitüsü,Politika Raporu, Nisan 2020 – 008.
• Encyclopedia Britannica (2020), “Early modern Italy (16th to 18th centuries) The 17th-century crisis”, https://www.britannica.com/place/Italy.
• Euronews,https://tr.euronews.com/2020/05/08/abd-de-issizlik-yuzde-14-7-ile-buyuk-buhran-doneminden-bu-yana-en-yuksek-seviyeye-c-kt
• Farris, William Wayne (2009), Japan to 1600 A Social and Economic History, University of Hawai‘i Press Honolulu, 1-227.
• Fathers, David (2020), “London's Seen Much Worse Than Coronavirus: Remembering The Great Plague Of 1665”, https://londonist.com/london/history/great-plague-1665-bloody-london-david-fathers.
• Feuer, William (2020), “Coronavirus: The hit to the global economy will be worse than SARS”, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-the-hit-to-the-global-economy-will-be-worse-than-sars.html. CNBC, 6 Şubat.
• Fischer, Colby J. (2017), “Unequal Implementation: The Impact of Government Anti-Plague Policies on the London Poor in 1665”, UVM Honors College Senior Theses, 1-79
• Garmaroudi, Farshid S., (2007), “The Last Great Uncontrolled Plague Of Mankınd”, The Scıence Creatıve Quarterly, 10.30.2007.
• Henderson, D. A., Brooke Courtney, Thomas V. Inglesby, Eric Toner, Jennifer B. Nuzzo (2009), “Public Health and Medical Responses to the 1957-58 Influenza Pandemic”, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, Volume 7, Number 3, 265-273.
• İnal, Seza (2016), “Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Enfeksiyonu: Ortadoğu Solunum Yetmezliği Sendromu-Koronavirüs Enfeksiyonu”, Okmeydanı Tıp Dergisi, 32(Ek sayı):37-45.
• Joo, Heesoo, Brian A. Maskery, Andre D. Berro, Lisa D. Rotz, Yeon-Kyeng Lee, Clive M. Brown, (2019), “Economic impact of the 2015 MERS outbreak on the Republic of Korea’s tourism-related industries”, Health Secur, 17(2), 100-108.
• Karakuş, Onur Sadık (2018), “Doğu’dan Gelen Ölüm: Antoninus Vebası”, Toplumsal Tarih, 296, Ağustos, 38-41.
• Kessler, Robert (2020), “SARS: The First Pandemic of the 21st Century”, https://www. ecohealthalliance.org/2018/03/sars
• Kim, Yang-Woo, Seok-Jun Yoon, In-Hwan Oh, (2013), “The economic burden of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Korea”, Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 45: 390-396.
• Küçükşehir, Erdal (2020), “Virüs ekonomisi”, https://www.bbnhaber.com/yazi/virus-ekonomisi, (Erişim tarihi: 10.05.2020)
• Lee, Kelley, Richard Dodgson, “Globalization and Cholera: Implications for Global Governance”, Global Governance, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Apr.–June), 213-236.
• Lee, Yen Nee (2020), “4 charts show how SARS hit China’s economy nearly 20 years ago”, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/coronavirus-4-charts-show-how-sars-hit-chinas-economy-in-2003.html. CNBC 10 Şubat.
• LePan, Nicholas (2020), “Visualizing the History of Pandemics”, https://www. visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/.
• Matillano, Hadley (2011), “The Effect of Smallpox on the New World”, Historical Paper, Junior Division, World Count: 2398, 1-21.
• McKibbin, Warwick, J. (2009), “The Swine Flu Outbreak and its Global Economic Impact”, https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/the-swine-flu-outbreak-and-its-global-economic-impact/.
• Meier, Mischa (2016), “The ‘Justinianic Plague’: The Economic Consequences of the Pandemic in the Eastern Roman Empire and its Cultural and Religious Effects”, Early Medieval Europe, 24 (3), 267–292
• MercyCorps (2019), “Chapter 4: How does Ebola affect the economy?”, www.mercycorps. org/blog/ebola-outbreaks-africa-guide/chapter-4
• Mitchener, Kris James, Marc D. Weidenmier (2007), “The Baring Crisis and the Great Latin American Meltdown of the 1890s”, The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 68, No. 2 (Jun., 2008), 462-500.
• Pamuk, Şevket (2020), “Tarihte Küresel Salgınlar ve İktisadi Sonuçları”, https://sarkac.org/ 2020/04/tarihte-kuresel-salginlar-ve-iktisadi-sonuclari/
• Patterson, David K. (1992), “Yellow Fever Epidemics and Mortality in The United States, 1693-1905”, Social Science & Medical, Vol. 34, No. 8, 855-865.
• Riedel, Stefan (2005), “Edward Jenner and The History of Smallpox and Vaccination”, BUMC Proceeding,18, 21-25.
• Roberts, J. A., P. Cumberland, P. N. Sockett, J. Wheeler, L. C. Rodrıgues, D. Sethı, P. J. Roderıck, (2003), “The Study of Infectious Intestinal Disease in England: Socio-economic Impact”, Epidemiol. Infect. 130, Cambridge University Press, 1–11.
• Rosenwald, Michael S., (2020), “History’s Deadliest Pandemics, From Ancient Rome to Modern America”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/local/retropolis/ coronavirus-deadliest-pandemics/.
• Roser, Max (2020), “The Spanish flu (1918-20): The global impact of the largest influenza pandemic in history”, https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history.
• Sabbatini, Sergio, Sirio Fiorino (2009), “La peste antonina e il declino dell’Impero Romano. Ruolo della guerra partica e della guerra marcomannica tra il 164 e il 182 d.C. nella diffusione del contagio”, Le Infezioni in Medicina, n. 4, 261-275
• Sağlık Bakanlığı (2020), “Ebola”, www.seyahatsagligi.gov.tr/site/HastalikDetay/Ebola
• Sanburn, Josh (2010), “The Third Plague Pandemic”, TIME, Tuesday, Oct. 26.
• Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R. Daniel Krewski (2016), “Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission”, Pathogens, 5, 66, 1-19.
• SB (2020), “Hong Kong Flu (1968 Influenza Pandemic)”, https://www.sinobiological.com /research/virus/1968-influenza-pandemic-hong-kong-flu.
• Snell, Melissa (2019), “The Sixth-Century Plague”, ThoughtCo, Feb. 11, 2020, thoughtco.com/the-sixth-century-plague-1789291.
• Stenseth, Nils Chr. (2008), “Plague Through History”, Science, Vol, 321, 8 August, 773-774.
• Stepan, Nancy (1978), “The Interplay Between Socio-Economic Factors and Medical Science: Yellow Fever Research, Cuba and the United States”, Social Studies of Science, Vol 8, 397-423.
• The Economist (2009), “The cost of swine flu”, https://www.economist.com/news/2009/ 07/27/the-cost-of-swine-flu.
• Tognotti, Eugenia (2010), “The eradication of smallpox, a success story for modern medicine and public health: What lessons for the future?”, J Infect Dev Ctries, 4(5), 264-266.
• UN (1960), World Economic Survey 1959, Unıted Natıons Department Of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 1-250.
• Uzluk, Feridun Nafiz (1948), “Cholera Asiaticanın Epidemi Tarihi Üstüne Bir Araştırma”, Türk Ljiyen ve Tecrübi Biyoloji Dergisi, Cilt 8, Sayı 1, 7-36.
• World Bank (2020), “GDP (current US$) – China”, https://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2019&locations=CN&start=2003. (Erişim tarihi: 20.05.2020).
• Wha, Jong-Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin (2004), Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak, içinde “Estimating The Global Economic Costs of SARS”, Edt: Stacey Knobler, Adel Mahmoud, Stanley Lemon, Alison Mack, Laura Sivitz, and Katherine Oberholtzer, The National Academies Press, 91-109.
• WHO (2009), “Who Guide to Identifying The Economic Consequences of Disease and Injury”, Department of Health Systems Financing Health Systems and Services,
• WHO (2020), “Global Health Observatory (GHO) data”, https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/
• Verikios, George, Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke, Gordon Woo (2011), “The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza”, 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, June 16-18, 1-41.