Sağlık Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Yeni (içsel) büyüme teorileri ortaya konulduktan sonra, bu teorilerde yer alan baskın rolün beşeri sermaye değişkenine verildiği görülmektedir. Beşeri sermayeyi temsil edebilecek asıl göstergeyi resmi ya da resmi olmayan eğitim göstergeleri oluştursa da toplumun sağlık düzeyi ile ilgili göstergeler de beşeri sermayeyi besleyen ve gelişmesine katkı yapan bir unsur olarak büyüme modellerinde yer almaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ve beşeri sermaye ilişkisini tartışan literatürde, beşeri sermayeyi temsil edebilen değişkenlerle ekonomik büyüme göstergeleri arasındaki ilişki üzerine bir konsesüse varılamadığı anlaşılmaktadır. Literatürde, nedenselliğin yönü ile ilgili olarak tek yönlü ya da karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkilerini destekleyen çalışmalara rastlanılmaktadır. Bu nedenle daha geniş data setiyle ve yeni ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak tahminler yapmak gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma sözü edilen gerekçelerle beşeri sermaye ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini, yeni nesil panel nedensellik testlerinden biri olan Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) yaklaşımı ve Dünya Bankasının ülkeleri gelirlerine göre sınıflandırdığı dört farklı ülke grubu için 1995-2014 verilerini kullanarak tahmin etmektedir. Beşeri sermaye göstergesi olarak, kişi başına sağlık harcamaları; toplam sağlık harcamaları, özel sağlık harcamaları ve kamu sağlık harcamaları kullanılırken, ekonomik büyüme göstergesi olarak da kişi başına gelir değişkeni tercih edilmiştir. Ülke gruplarına göre elde edilen sonuçlar değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beşeri Sermaye,Ekonomik Büyüme,Sağlık Harcamaları

Healthcare Expenditure and Economic Growth Relation: Panel Causality Analysis

Öz

With the development of new (endogenaus) growth theories, it is observed that the major role in these theories had been given to human capital. Although offical or non-offical education indicators are the main indicators which represent human capital, the indicators about the health level of a society also appear in growth models as an element which feeds human capital and contributes its development. The literature which discuss the relation between economic growth and human capital could not come to a consensus about the relation between the variables which represent human capital and economic growth indicators. There are studies, in the literature, which support one-way or mutual causality relations regarding the direction of the causality. Hence, it is necessary to conduct predictions by using larger data sets and new econometric models. This study predicts the relationship between human capital and economic growth by using Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) approach, which is one of the new generation panel causality tests, for the four different country groups by income levels which is classified by the World Bank for the period of 1995-2014. We used personal healthcare expenditures, total healthcare expenditures, private healthcare expenditures and public healthcare expenditures as human capital indicators, and personal income as economic growth indicator. The results obtained, according to the country groups, point to two-way causality relation between variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human Capital,Economic Growth,Health Expenditures

Kaynakça

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