Bayesian model average method: An application on employment rate

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 15 - 31, 28.06.2019

Atilla Yardımcı

Öz

In this study,
Bayesian model averaging method, which is used to decrease the model
uncertainty and to determine the importance levels of the independent variables
in the model, was explained. In addition, with the help of sectoral capacity
utilization rate data between January 2007 and August 2018, the Bayesian model
average method was used to determine the manufacturing sectors that affect the
employment rate. As a result of the analyzes, it is concluded that the sectors
that are the most effective on the employment rate are the manufacture of
beverages, the manufacture of textiles, the production of other non-metallic
mineral products and the furniture manufacturing sectors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bayesian model averaging, employment rate, the capacity utilization rate, model uncertainty

Bayesci model ortalaması yöntemi: İstihdam oranı üzerine bir uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışmada; Ocak 2007- Ağustos 2018 ayları
arasındaki sektörel kapasite kullanım oranı verileri yardımıyla, istihdam
oranını etkileyen imalat sektörlerinin belirlenmesi için Bayesci model
ortalaması yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca model belirsizliğinin giderilmesi ve
modelde yer alan bağımsız değişkenlerin, önem düzeylerinin belirlenmesi de
amaçlanmıştır. Regresyon analizi, değişken seçimi, belirsizlik kavramlarına
değinilmiş, Bayesci model ortalaması yöntemi açıklanmıştır. Yapılan analizler
sonucunda istihdam oranı üzerinde en etkili olan sektörlerin; içeceklerin
imalatı, tekstil ürünlerinin imalatı, diğer metalik olmayan mineral ürünlerin
imalatı ile mobilya imalatı sektörleri olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bayesci model ortalaması, istihdam oranı, kapasite kullanım oran, model belirsizliği

Kaynakça

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