Farklı Eşleştirilmiş Durum-Kontrol Düzenleri ile Koşullu Lojistik Regresyon Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması: Avrupa Birliği Örneği

Öz

Çalışmada, farklı eşleştirilmiş durum-kontrol düzenleri oluşturularak Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyeliğini etkileyen faktörlerin koşullu lojistik regresyon modelleri ile belirlenmesi ve bu modellerin karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu nedenle, AB veritabanındaki 2009 yılı verileri kullanılarak (1:1), (1:m) ve (n:m) eşleştirilmiş durum-kontrol düzenleri oluşturulmuş ve elde edilen koşullu lojistik modelleri karşılaştırılmıştır. En iyi modele dayanarak AB'ye aday ülkeler için üye olma olasılıkları tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, bir ülkenin cari hesap dengesinin AB'ye üyelik üzerinde etkili olduğu, Türkiye, Hırvatistan ve Makedonya'nın üyelik sürelerinin sekiz yıldan daha uzun olacağı öngörülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Birliği
• Eşleştirilmiş durum-kontrol düzenleri
• Koşullu lojistik regresyon çözümlemesi

Comparison of Different Matched Case-Control Designs With Conditional Logistic Regression Models: European Union Example

Öz

In this study, investigation of the factors effecting EU membership by using conditional logistic regression analysis with different matched case-control designs and comparison of these models are aimed. For this reason, (1:1), (1:m) and (n:m) matching designs are constructed by using data in year 2009 in the EU database and the conditional logistic models are compared. Based on the best model, the probabilities of being membership are predicted. According to findings, it is seen that the balance of current account is effective on the EU membership and the membership periods of Turkey, Croatia and Macedonia will be more than eight years.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Matched case-control designs
• Conditional logistic regression analysis
• European Union

Kaynakça

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