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Bitkisel Ürün Verim Sigortası için Prim Oranlarının Belirlenmesi: Cihanbeyli, Çorlu ve Polatlı Örnekleri

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 39 - 48, 15.12.2022

Öz

Günümüzde tarımsal faaliyetlerle uğraşan iş gücü piyasası ile üretim yapılabilecek tarım alanlarının azalması ve nüfusun artması gibi tarımsal üretimi etkileyen nedenlerin çoğalması, temel besin kaynaklarının üretiminin devam etmesi konusunu önemli bir hale getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda, tarımsal üretimi üstlenen çiftçilerin üretimine devam etmesi, üretimden kaynaklanan risklere karşı kendini güvende hissedebilmesi için önlemlerin alınması gerekmektedir. Dolayısıyla üretimi doğrudan etkileyen çevresel risklerin de etkisini azaltılabilecek sigorta poliçelerinin sunulması önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, tarım sigortalarında kullanılan önemli bir sigorta uygulaması olan verim sigortası anlatılmış, Türkiye için buğday üretiminde bulundukları illerde ilk sıralarda yer alan Cihanbeyli, Çorlu ve Polatlı ilçelerine ait 1991-2021 yılları arası buğday verim verileri kullanılarak verim sigortası için prim oranları elde edilmiştir. 31 yıllık buğday verisi, tarım sigortaları için sıkça kullanılan parametrik dağılımlardan; normal, beta ve parametrik olmayan gaussian kernel dağılımı yardımıyla incelenmiştir.

Teşekkür

Sayın Prof. Dr. Kasırga YILDIRAK'a tüm katkıları için teşekkür ederim.

Kaynakça

  • Binici, T., & Zulauf, C. R. (2006). Determining wheat crop insurance premium based on area yield insurance scheme in Konya Province, Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences, 6(5), 1148-1152.
  • Botts, R. R., & Boles, J. N. (1958). Use of normal-curve theory in crop insurance ratemaking. Journal of Farm Economics, 40(3), 733-740.
  • Coble, K. H., Knight, T. O., Pope, R. D., & Williams, J. R. (1997). An expected‐indemnity approach to the measurement of moral hazard in crop insurance. American journal of agricultural economics, 79(1), 216-226.
  • Day, R. H. (1965). Probability distributions of field crop yields. American journal of agricultural economics, 47(3), 713-741.
  • Goodwin, B. K., & Ker, A. P. (1998). Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions: implications for rating group‐risk crop insurance contracts. American journal of agricultural economics, 80(1), 139-153.
  • Just, R. E., & Weninger, Q. (1999). Are crop yields normally distributed? American journal of agricultural economics, 81(2), 287-304. Lu, J., Carbone, G. J., & Gao, P. (2017). Detrending crop yield data for spatial visualization of drought impacts in the United States, 1895–2014. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 237, 196-208.
  • Miranda, M. J. (1991). Area‐yield crop insurance reconsidered. American journal of agricultural economics, 73(2), 233-242.
  • Nelson, C. H., & Loehman, E. T. (1987). Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance. American journal of agricultural economics, 69(3), 523-531.
  • Nelson, C. H., & Preckel, P. V. (1989). The conditional beta distribution as a stochastic production function. American journal of agricultural economics, 71(2), 370-378.
  • Ozaki, V. A., Goodwin, B. K., & Shirota, R. (2008). Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts. Applied Economics, 40(9), 1151-1164.
  • Şahin, Ş., Karabey, U., Karageyik, B. B., Nevruz, E., & Yildirak, K. (2016). Türkiye'de Buğday Bitkisel Ürün Sigortası için Aktüeryal Prim Hesabı. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 22(2), 37-47.
  • Silverman, B. W. (2018). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis: Routledge.
  • Skees, J. R., Black, J. R., & Barnett, B. J. (1997). Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance contract. American journal of agricultural economics, 79(2), 430-438.
  • Skees, J. R., & Reed, M. R. (1986). Rate making for farm‐level crop insurance: Implications for adverse selection. American journal of agricultural economics, 68(3), 653-659.
  • Xie, F.-j., & Xie, F.-y. (2009). Crop area yield risk evaluation and premium rates calculation—Based on nonparametric kernel density estimation. Paper presented at the 2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering.
  • Ye, T., Nie, J., Wang, J., Shi, P., & Wang, Z. (2015). Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 29(1), 109-117.

Determination of Premium Rates for Crop Yield Insurance : Examples of Cihanbeyli, Çorlu and Polatlı

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 39 - 48, 15.12.2022

Öz

The increase in factors that seriously affect access to food, such as the decrease in the labor market dealing with agricultural activities, the increase in the population and the decrease in the agricultural areas where production can be made, makes the issue of continuing the production of basic food sources important. In this purpose, it is needed to take precautions for the farmers, who assume the main role of agricultural production, to continue their production and to feel safe against the risks arising from production. Therefore, it is important to present insurance policies that can reduce the impact of environmental risks that directly affect production. In this study, crop yield insurance, which is an important insurance application used in agricultural insurance, is explained. Premium rates for yield insurance were obtained by using wheat yield data for the years 1991-2021 belonging to the provinces of Cihanbeyli, Çorlu and Polatlı, which are among the top cities in wheat production for Turkey. Normal, beta and non-parametric Gaussian kernel distributions were used for wheat yield data.

Kaynakça

  • Binici, T., & Zulauf, C. R. (2006). Determining wheat crop insurance premium based on area yield insurance scheme in Konya Province, Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences, 6(5), 1148-1152.
  • Botts, R. R., & Boles, J. N. (1958). Use of normal-curve theory in crop insurance ratemaking. Journal of Farm Economics, 40(3), 733-740.
  • Coble, K. H., Knight, T. O., Pope, R. D., & Williams, J. R. (1997). An expected‐indemnity approach to the measurement of moral hazard in crop insurance. American journal of agricultural economics, 79(1), 216-226.
  • Day, R. H. (1965). Probability distributions of field crop yields. American journal of agricultural economics, 47(3), 713-741.
  • Goodwin, B. K., & Ker, A. P. (1998). Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions: implications for rating group‐risk crop insurance contracts. American journal of agricultural economics, 80(1), 139-153.
  • Just, R. E., & Weninger, Q. (1999). Are crop yields normally distributed? American journal of agricultural economics, 81(2), 287-304. Lu, J., Carbone, G. J., & Gao, P. (2017). Detrending crop yield data for spatial visualization of drought impacts in the United States, 1895–2014. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 237, 196-208.
  • Miranda, M. J. (1991). Area‐yield crop insurance reconsidered. American journal of agricultural economics, 73(2), 233-242.
  • Nelson, C. H., & Loehman, E. T. (1987). Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance. American journal of agricultural economics, 69(3), 523-531.
  • Nelson, C. H., & Preckel, P. V. (1989). The conditional beta distribution as a stochastic production function. American journal of agricultural economics, 71(2), 370-378.
  • Ozaki, V. A., Goodwin, B. K., & Shirota, R. (2008). Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts. Applied Economics, 40(9), 1151-1164.
  • Şahin, Ş., Karabey, U., Karageyik, B. B., Nevruz, E., & Yildirak, K. (2016). Türkiye'de Buğday Bitkisel Ürün Sigortası için Aktüeryal Prim Hesabı. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, 22(2), 37-47.
  • Silverman, B. W. (2018). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis: Routledge.
  • Skees, J. R., Black, J. R., & Barnett, B. J. (1997). Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance contract. American journal of agricultural economics, 79(2), 430-438.
  • Skees, J. R., & Reed, M. R. (1986). Rate making for farm‐level crop insurance: Implications for adverse selection. American journal of agricultural economics, 68(3), 653-659.
  • Xie, F.-j., & Xie, F.-y. (2009). Crop area yield risk evaluation and premium rates calculation—Based on nonparametric kernel density estimation. Paper presented at the 2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering.
  • Ye, T., Nie, J., Wang, J., Shi, P., & Wang, Z. (2015). Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 29(1), 109-117.
Toplam 16 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İstatistik
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Güven Şimşek 0000-0003-1139-0596

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Aralık 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Şimşek, G. (2022). Bitkisel Ürün Verim Sigortası için Prim Oranlarının Belirlenmesi: Cihanbeyli, Çorlu ve Polatlı Örnekleri. İstatistik Araştırma Dergisi, 12(2), 39-48.