Yerel Alan Karakteristiklerine İlişkin Doğrudan Ve Dolaylı Tahminlerin Elde Edilmesi

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 76 - 88, 17.10.2011

Volkan Sevinç

Öz

Yerel alanlara ilişkin tahminler yapmak için geliştirilmiş özel yöntemlere ihtiyaç duyulur. Bu yöntemlerin her biri incelenen konu, veri türü, problemin yapısı gibi etkenlere göre değişiklik gösterir ve farklı uygulama alanlarına sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, yerel alan kavramının açıklaması yapıldıktan sonra, yerel alanlarda kullanılan doğrudan ve dolaylı tahmin ediciler, varsayımları, yöntemleri ve gereksinim duydukları veri türü ile anlatılmıştır. Daha sonra, bir örnek uygulama olarak sentetik tahmin yöntemi ile Muğla ili işsizlik oranı tahmini elde edilmiş ve elde edilen sonuçların yorumu yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yerel Alan Tahminleri, Alan Araştırmaları, Lokal Tahmin Ediciler, Küçük Alanlar

Obtaining the Direct and Indirect Estimations for Local Area Characteristics

Öz

Special methods are needed to make estimations about local areas. These methods differ from each other according to some factors such as the subject, type of data, and the structure of the problem. They also have different areas of application. In this paper, after explaining the local area concept, the direct and indirect estimators used in local areas are given with their assumptions, methods, and the type of data that they require. Later as an application, the unemployment rate in Muğla province is estimated through the synthetic estimation and the results obtained are interpreted.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Local Area Estimates, Survey Methods, Local Estimators, Small Areas

Kaynakça

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