Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Covid-19 Salgını Dönemindeki Geçerlilik Analizleri

Öz

Firmaların beklemedik iflasları, şirket ortaklarına, yatırımcılara, çalışanlara, devlete, ticari ve finansal alacaklılara büyük zarar vermektedir. Bu kapsamda, şirketlerin finansal başarısızlık risklerinin sürekli ölçülerek kontrol edilmesi gerekir. Fakat firmaların finansal başarısızlık riskini ölçen finansal modellerin de geçerliliklerinin sürekli olarak kontrol edilmesi önemlidir. Çünkü bu modellerin geçerlilik oranları ne kadar yüksek olursa, yatırımcı ve araştırmacıların bu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre doğru karar verme ihtimalleri de o kadar yükselmiş olur. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmada literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Altman (1968), Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), Fulmer (1984), Zmijewski (1984), Kanada (1987) ve Grove (2001) modellerinin geçerlilik testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın örneklemi, ABD piyasalarında yer alan ve 2018 ile 2020 yılları arasında resmi olarak iflası açıklanan 8 adet enerji işletmesinden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmanın evreni, finansal kuruluşlar, mali şirketler ve sigorta şirketleri dışında kalan tüm şirketlerdir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, Springate ve Altman modellerinin şirketlerin finansal başarısızlık riskini en iyi tahmin eden modeller olduğu görülmüştür. Bununla birlikte Kanada ve Fulmer modelleri başarı performansı en yüksek ikinci grup modellerdir. Grover modelinin de başarı ortalaması genel ortalamanın biraz üzerindedir. Bununla birlikte, Zmijewski ve Ohlson modellerinin genel başarı oranı genel ortalamanın altında kalmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Başarısızlık Modelleri
• Finansal Performans
• Şirket İflasları
• Enerji Sektörü
• Amerikan Piyasaları

Validity Analysis of Financial Failure Prediction Models During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Öz

Unexpected bankruptcies of companies cause significant damage to company partners, investors, employees, countries, commercial and financial creditors. In this context, the financial failure risks should be constantly measured and controlled. However, it is important to constantly check the validity of financial models that measure the risk of the financial failure of companies. Because the higher the validity rates of these models, the higher the probability of investors and researchers to make the right decision according to the results obtained from these models. In this context, validity tests widely used in the literature, namely Altman (1968), Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), Fulmer (1984), Zmijewski (1984), Canada (1987) and Grove (2001) models, were applied in this study. The study sample comprises of 8 energy companies in the US markets, which were officially declared bankrupt between 2018 and 2020. The universe of the study includes all companies and excludes financial institutions, financial companies and insurance companies. The research results have shown that Springate and Altman models best predict the financial failure risk of companies. However, Canadian and Fulmer models are the second group of models with the highest performance. The overall accuracy rate of the Grover model is also slightly above the overall average, while the overall accuracy rate of the Zmijewski and Ohlson models is below the general average.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Failure Prediction Models
• Financial Performance
• Company Bankruptcies
• Energy Sector
• US Markets

Kaynakça

1. Altman, E. 1968. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance, (23)4, 589–609.
2. Aydın, N., Başar, M. & Coşkun, M. 2014. Finansal Yönetim, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
3. Azim M. ve Sharif M.J. 2020. “Usability of Z Score: A Case Study On People's Leasing and Financial Services Limited & Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company Limited”, Int. J. Manag. Account, 2(3), 38-46.
4. Daryanto, W. M., Pricillia M. & Andarini K. 2021. “Financial Report Analysis of Pt Pakuwon Jati Tbk Using Z-Score Altman, S-Score Springate, And X-Score Zmijewski Models to Analyze Company’s Bankruptcy”, South East Asia Journal of Contemporary Business, Economics and Law, 24(4), 87-91.
5. Elviani, S., Simbolon, R., Riana, Z., Khairani, F., Dewi, S. & Fauzi, F. 2020. “The Accuracy Of The Altman, Ohlson, Springate And Zmejewski Models In Bankruptcy Predicting Trade Sector Companies In Indonesia.”, Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences, 3, 334-347.
6. Fauzi, E. S., Sudjono & Saluy, B. A. 2021, Comparative analysis of financial sustainability using the altman Z-score, Springate, Zmijewski and Grover models for companies listed at Indonesia stock exchange sub-sector telecommunication period 2014–2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 4(1), 57-78.
7. Fulmer, J. G., Moon, J. E., Gavin, T. A., & Erwin, M. J. 1984. “A Bankruptcy Classification Model For Small Firms”, Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, 66(11), 25-37.
8. Karadeniz, E. & Öcek, C. 2020. “Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Thomas Cook Örneği”, Seyahat ve Otel İşletmeciliği Dergisi, 17, 394-406.

9. Legault, J.C.A. & Score, A. 1987, “CA-Score, A Warning System for Small Business Failures, Bilanas, 29-31.
10. Laurila, K. 2019. “Accuracy Comparison of Accounting-Based Bankruptcy Prediction Models Of Springate” (1978), Ohlson (1980) and Altman (2000) to US manufacturing companies 1990-2018. Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
11. Manaseer, S. & Al-Oshaibat, S. D. 2018. “Validity of Altman Z-Score Model To Predict Financial Failure: Evidence From Jordan”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(8).
12. Merza Radhi, D. S. & Sarea, A. 2019. “Evaluating Financial Performance Of Saudi Listed Firms: Using Statistical Failure Prediction Models”, International Journal of Business Ethics and Governance, 2(1).
13. Ohlson, J. A. 1980. “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, 18 (1), ss. 109-131.
14. Prihanthini, N. M. E. D. & Sari, Maria M. R. 2013. “Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Model Grover, Altman Z-Score, Springate dan Zmijewski pada Perusahaan Food and Beverage di Bursa Efek Indonesia”, E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 5(2), 417-435.
15. Salim M. N. & Ismudjoko, D. 2021. “An analysis of financial distress accuracy models in Indonesia coal mining industry: an Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson and Grover approaches”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 3(2), 01-12.
16. Springate, G. L. V. 1978. “Predicting The Possibility of Failure in A Canadian Firm: A Discriminant Analysis” Master Thesis, Simon Fraser University, Canada.
17. Statista. 2021. “The Forecasted Number of Business Insolvencies Worldwide in 2021, By Country”. Erişim Adresi https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116430/number-business-insolvencies-country
18. United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 2020. “Battalion Oil Corporation Report”. Erişim Adresi https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282648/000155837020006351/batl-20200331x10q.htm
19. World Health Organization. 2021. WHO Coronavirus (Covid-19) dashboard. Erişim Adresi https://covid19.who.int/
20. Zmijewski, M. E. 1984. “Methodological Issues Related to The Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models”, Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 59-82.