Türkiye’de Tarım ve Sanayi Sektörlerindeki Gelişmelerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Dünyadaki toplumların en eski iktisadi hedeflerinden biri toplumun refah düzeyini arttırmaktır. Bu nedenle tarihten bu yana ekonomik büyüme olgusu üzerinde en fazla çalışan konulardan biri olmuştur. Bu çalışmada 1980 İle 2022 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin tarım ve sanayi sektörlerindeki üretimin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Ayrıca kontrol değişkenler olarak enflasyon ve dış ticaret açığı verileri çalışmaya eklenmiştir. Çalışmada ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre birinci modelde GSMH içindeki tarım sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kişi başına gelir yaklaşık %1,13 kadar azalmaktadır. Enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik artış ise kişi başına geliri yaklaşık %0,18 düşürmektedir. İkinci modelde ise GSMH içindeki sanayi sektörünün payının kişi başına gelir üzerindeki etkisi pozitiftir. Enflasyon oranı kişi başına gelir üzerinde negatif etkiye sahiptir. Sanayi sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kişi başına gelir yaklaşık %4,5 yükselmektedir. Buna ilaveten enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik artış ise kişi başına geliri yaklaşık %0,5 azaltmaktadır. Son olarak dış ticaret açığına ilişkin parametreler ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarım
• Sanayi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Dış Ticaret
• Enflasyon

The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach

Öz

One of the oldest economic goals of societies around the world is to increase the welfare level of the society. For this reason, the phenomenon of economic growth has been one of the most studied subjects since history. In this work, the efficacy of production in Turkey's agricultural and industrial sectors on economic growth amongst 1980 and 2022 has been investigated. In addition, inflation and trade deficit data are included as control variables. ARDL bounds test was implemented in the work. Accordingly the outcomes of the work, in the first model, when the share of the agricultural sector in GNP increases by 1%, per capita income decreases by approximately 1.13%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.18%. In the second model, the margin of the industrial sector in GNP has an affirmative efficacy on per capita income. The inflation rate, conversely, has a negatory efficacy on per capita income. When the share of the industrial sector increases by 1%, per capita income increases by approximately 4.5%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.5%. The parameters related to international trade deficit are statistically insignificant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agriculture
• Industry
• Economic Growth
• International Trade
• Inflation

Kaynakça

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