Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular

Öz

Döviz kuru hareketleri ülkeler arasındaki ticaret akımlarının en önemli belirleyicileri arasında görülmekle birlikte son yıllarda ihracat ve ithalatın döviz kuruna olan duyarlılığının azaldığı bazı çalışmalar tarafından ortaya konulmaktadır. İlgili literatür incelendiğinde döviz kuru-dış ticaret ilişkisinin çoğunlukla toplulaştırılmış ülke verileri kullanılarak incelendiği ve sektörel farklılıkların göz ardı edilebildiği gözlenmektedir. Sektörlerin üretim yapısı, teknoloji yoğunluğu, ithal girdi kullanımı, küresel değer zincirlerine eklemlenme oranı gibi özellikleri döviz kuruna olan duyarlılıklarını etkileyen faktörler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada hem döviz kuru düzey değişimlerinin hem de oynaklığının sektörel ihracat ve ithalat üzerindeki etkisi gelişmiş ülkeler imalat sanayi alt sektörleri ele alınarak analiz edilmektedir. Bu amaçla panel hata düzeltme modelleri kullanılarak döviz kuru hareketlerinin dış ticaret üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkisi G7 ülkelerine ait 20 imalat sanayi alt sektörü için tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular özellikle ihracatta döviz kuru değişimlerinin etkisinin sektörler arasında oldukça farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Düşük teknoloji yoğunluğuna sahip sektörlerde yerli paranın reel değer kaybı ihracatı kısa ve uzun dönemde çoğunlukla pozitif etkilerken, orta ve yüksek teknoloji sektörlerinde bu etki anlamsız ya da pozitif olabilmektedir. Bunun yanında ülke parasının değer kaybetmesi ithalatı dört sektör dışında negatif etkilemektedir. Döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat üzerindeki uzun dönemdeki etkisi hemen hemen tüm sektörlerde negatif ve anlamlı iken kısa dönemde etkisi farklılaşmaktadır. Sektörler teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre gruplandırıldığında özellikle döviz kuru-ihracat ilişkisinde teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre belirgin farklılıklar ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz kuru
• Döviz kuru oynaklığı
• İhracat
• İthalat
• Sektörel ticaret

Kaynakça

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