Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular

Saharnaz Damırova; Duygu Yolcu Karadam

doi:10.19168/jyasar.1448412

Araştırma Makalesi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 79, 429 - 453, 31.07.2025

Saharnaz Damırova , Duygu Yolcu Karadam

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1448412

Öz

Kaynakça

Adler, G., Meleshchuk, S., and Buitron, M. C. O. (2019). Global value chains and external adjustment: Do exchange rates still matter? International Monetary Fund.
Ahmed Hannan, S., Appendino, M., and Ruta, M. (2015). Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports.
Ahmed, S., Appendino, M., and Ruta, M. (2016). Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1), 20150130.
Akhtar, M. A., and Hilton, R. S. (1984). Exchange rate uncertainty and international trade: Some conceptual issues and new estimates for Germany and the United States. Federal Reserve Bank.
Akkaya, O. (2018). Türkiye and Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Partnerleri Arasındaki İki Yanlı J Eğrisi: 1996-2006 Dönemi İncelemesi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(1), 328-338.
Ardalani, Z., and Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2007). Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level? Economics Bulletin, 6(26), 1-12.
Arize, A. C. (1995). The effects of exchange-rate volatility on US exports: an empirical investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 34-43.
Arize, A. C. (1997). Foreign trade and exchange‐rate risk in the G‐7 countries: Cointegration and error‐correction models. Review of financial Economics, 6(1), 95-112.
Arize, A. C., and Malindretos, J. (1998). The long-run and short-run effects of exchange-rate volatility on exports: The case of Australia and New Zealand. Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(2-3), 43-56.
Arize, A. C., and Shwiff, S. S. (1998). Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 countries? Evidence from cointegration models. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1269-1276.
Arndt, S. W. and Huemer, A. (2007). Trade, production networks and the exchange rate. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 4(1), 11-39.
Assery, A. and Peel, D. (1991). The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Some new estimates. Economics Letters, 37(2), 173-177.
Auboin, M. and Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.
Aydın, F., Saygılı, H., Saygılı, M., ve Yılmaz, G. (2019). Dış Ticarette Küresel Eğilimler ve Türkiye. TCMB Araştırma ve Para Politikası Genel Müdürlüğü, Çalışma Tebliği, (10/01).
Badinger, H., and Fichet de Clairfontaine, A. (2019). Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach. Review of International Economics, 27(4), 1268-1293.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: a literature review. Applied economics, 36(13), 1377-1398.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Karamelikli, H., and Niroomand, F. (2023). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(1), 38-62.
Bailey, M. J., Tavlas, G. S., and Ulan, M. (1986). Exchange-rate variability and trade performance: evidence for the big seven industrial countries. Review of World Economics, 122(3), 466-477.
Baltagi, B. H. (1995). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, New York: Wiley. Baron, D. P. (1976). Fluctuating exchange rates and the pricing of exports. Economic Inquiry, 14(3), 425-438.
Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., and Ozkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 1-23.
Béreau, S., Villavicencio, A. L., and Mignon, V. (2012). Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods. Applied Economics, 44(27), 3503-3511.
Byrne, J. P., Darby, J., and MacDonald, R. (2008). US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis. Journal of macroeconomics, 30(1), 238-259.
Caglayan, M., and Demir, F. (2019). Exchange rate movements, export sophistication and direction of trade: the development channel and North–South trade flows. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 43(6), 1623-1652.
Cheng, K. C., Hong, G. H., Seneviratne, D., and van Elkan, R. (2018). Rethinking the exchange rate impact on trade in a world with global value chains. In Evolving Finance, Trade and Investment in Asia (pp. 40-52). Routledge.
Chit, M. M., Rizov, M., and Willenbockel, D. (2010). Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies. World Economy, 33(2), 239-263.
Cho, G., Sheldon, I.M. and McCorriston, S. (2002), “Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 84 No. 4, pp. 931-42
Choudhry, T. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International economies, 19(1), 51-71.
Chowdhury, A. R. (1993). Does exchange rate volatility depress trade flows? Evidence from error-correction models. The review of economics and statistics, 700-706.
Clark, P. B. (1973) “Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade” Economic Inquiry, 11(3), 302-313.
Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of international Economics, 15(1-2), 45-63.
De Grauwe, P. (1988). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. Staff Papers, 35(1), 63-84.
De Grauwe, P. and G. Verfaille (1988),‘Exchange Rate Variability, Misalignment, and the EuropeanMonetary System’, in Richard Marston (ed.),Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Tradeand Industry, Chicago University Press, pp. 77–100.
Demiral, M. (2016). Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance And Intra-Industry Trade Interactions İn Turkey’s OECD Trade. International Journal Of Economics And Finance, 8(4), 8-22.
De Soyres, F., Frohm, E., Gunnella, V., and Pavlova, E. (2021). Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities. European Economic Review, 140, 103896.
Dellas, H. and Zilberfarb, B. Z. (1993). Real exchange rate volatility and international trade: a reexamination of the theory. Southern Economic Journal, 59(4), 641-647.
Di Nino, Virginia, Barry Eichengreen and Massimo Sbracia (2011). “Real Exchange Rates, Trade and Growth: Italy 1861-2011”, Bank of Italy Economic History Working Papers, No. 10.
Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry Level J-Curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 2(4), 689-706.
Eichengreen, Barry and Gupta, Poonam (2013). “The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?”, Policy Research Working Paper Series 6629, The World Bank.
Ethier, W. (1973). International trade and the forward exchange market. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 494-503.
Financial Times (2015). “Rich Economies Question Faith in Power of Lower Exchange Rates”, Global Insight, published on March, 9th 2015.
Foster‐McGregor, N. (2013). On the Determinants of Investment in Sub‐S aharan African Manufacturing Firms. African Development Review, 25(4), 573-586.
Fouquin, M., Sekkat, K., Mansour, M., Mulder, N., and Nayman, L. (2004). Sector Sensitivity to Exchange Rates Fluctuations. European Integration and the Functionning of Product Market, A. Dierx, F. Ilzkovitz, K. Sekkat editors, Edward Elgard.
Franke, G. (1991). Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(2), 292-307
Freund, Caroline and Martha Denise Pierola (2012). “Export Surges: The Power of a Competitive Currency”, Journal of Development Economics, 97(2): 387-395.
Gala, P., and Lucinda, C. R. (2006). Exchange rate misalignment and growth: old and new econometric evidence. Revista Economia, 7(4), 165-187.
Giovannini, A. (1988). Exchange rates and traded goods prices. Journal of international Economics, 24(1-2), 45-68.
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S. (1978). The supply and demand for exports: a simultaneous approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 275-286.
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handbook of international economics, 2, 1041-1105.
Gu, X., Zhou, Z.-Y., and Beg, A. B. M. R. A. (2014). What Determines China’s Trade Balance Dynamics: A Disaggregate Analysis Of Panel Data. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 19(2), 353–368.
Guilhoto, J.J.M., G.J.D. Hewings, H. Johnstone, C. Webb and N. Yamano (2019) "Exploring changes in world production and trade: Insights from the 2018 update of OECD’s ICIO/TIVA database", OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, No. 2019/04, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Gupta-Kapoor, A., and Ramakrishnan, U. (1999). Is there a J-curve? A new estimation for Japan. International Economic Journal, 13(4), 71-79.
Hooper, P., and Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of international Economics, 8(4), 483-511.
Iqbal, J., Aziz, S., and Nosheen, M. (2022). The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 1-31.
Jones, R. W. and Kierzkowski, H. (2001). Horizontal aspects of vertical fragmentation. In Global production and trade in East Asia (pp. 33-51). Boston, MA: Springer US.
Jongwanich, J. (2010). Determinants of export performance in East and Southeast Asia. World Economy, 33(1), 20-41.
Kafle, K. R. (2011). Exchange rate volatility and bilateral agricultural trade flows: the case of the United States and OECD countries. LAP ALMBERT Academic Publishing.
Kandilov, I. T. (2008). The effects of exchange rate volatility on agricultural trade. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1028-1043.
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Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 79, 429 - 453, 31.07.2025

Saharnaz Damırova , Duygu Yolcu Karadam

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1448412

Öz

Döviz kuru hareketleri ülkeler arasındaki ticaret akımlarının en önemli belirleyicileri arasında görülmekle birlikte son yıllarda ihracat ve ithalatın döviz kuruna olan duyarlılığının azaldığı bazı çalışmalar tarafından ortaya konulmaktadır. İlgili literatür incelendiğinde döviz kuru-dış ticaret ilişkisinin çoğunlukla toplulaştırılmış ülke verileri kullanılarak incelendiği ve sektörel farklılıkların göz ardı edilebildiği gözlenmektedir. Sektörlerin üretim yapısı, teknoloji yoğunluğu, ithal girdi kullanımı, küresel değer zincirlerine eklemlenme oranı gibi özellikleri döviz kuruna olan duyarlılıklarını etkileyen faktörler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada hem döviz kuru düzey değişimlerinin hem de oynaklığının sektörel ihracat ve ithalat üzerindeki etkisi gelişmiş ülkeler imalat sanayi alt sektörleri ele alınarak analiz edilmektedir. Bu amaçla panel hata düzeltme modelleri kullanılarak döviz kuru hareketlerinin dış ticaret üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkisi G7 ülkelerine ait 20 imalat sanayi alt sektörü için tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular özellikle ihracatta döviz kuru değişimlerinin etkisinin sektörler arasında oldukça farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Düşük teknoloji yoğunluğuna sahip sektörlerde yerli paranın reel değer kaybı ihracatı kısa ve uzun dönemde çoğunlukla pozitif etkilerken, orta ve yüksek teknoloji sektörlerinde bu etki anlamsız ya da pozitif olabilmektedir. Bunun yanında ülke parasının değer kaybetmesi ithalatı dört sektör dışında negatif etkilemektedir. Döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat üzerindeki uzun dönemdeki etkisi hemen hemen tüm sektörlerde negatif ve anlamlı iken kısa dönemde etkisi farklılaşmaktadır. Sektörler teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre gruplandırıldığında özellikle döviz kuru-ihracat ilişkisinde teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre belirgin farklılıklar ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz kuru , Döviz kuru oynaklığı , İhracat , İthalat , Sektörel ticaret

Kaynakça

Adler, G., Meleshchuk, S., and Buitron, M. C. O. (2019). Global value chains and external adjustment: Do exchange rates still matter? International Monetary Fund.
Ahmed Hannan, S., Appendino, M., and Ruta, M. (2015). Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports.
Ahmed, S., Appendino, M., and Ruta, M. (2016). Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1), 20150130.
Akhtar, M. A., and Hilton, R. S. (1984). Exchange rate uncertainty and international trade: Some conceptual issues and new estimates for Germany and the United States. Federal Reserve Bank.
Akkaya, O. (2018). Türkiye and Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Partnerleri Arasındaki İki Yanlı J Eğrisi: 1996-2006 Dönemi İncelemesi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(1), 328-338.
Ardalani, Z., and Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2007). Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level? Economics Bulletin, 6(26), 1-12.
Arize, A. C. (1995). The effects of exchange-rate volatility on US exports: an empirical investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 34-43.
Arize, A. C. (1997). Foreign trade and exchange‐rate risk in the G‐7 countries: Cointegration and error‐correction models. Review of financial Economics, 6(1), 95-112.
Arize, A. C., and Malindretos, J. (1998). The long-run and short-run effects of exchange-rate volatility on exports: The case of Australia and New Zealand. Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(2-3), 43-56.
Arize, A. C., and Shwiff, S. S. (1998). Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 countries? Evidence from cointegration models. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1269-1276.
Arndt, S. W. and Huemer, A. (2007). Trade, production networks and the exchange rate. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 4(1), 11-39.
Assery, A. and Peel, D. (1991). The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Some new estimates. Economics Letters, 37(2), 173-177.
Auboin, M. and Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.
Aydın, F., Saygılı, H., Saygılı, M., ve Yılmaz, G. (2019). Dış Ticarette Küresel Eğilimler ve Türkiye. TCMB Araştırma ve Para Politikası Genel Müdürlüğü, Çalışma Tebliği, (10/01).
Badinger, H., and Fichet de Clairfontaine, A. (2019). Trade balance dynamics and exchange rates: In search of the J‐curve using a structural gravity approach. Review of International Economics, 27(4), 1268-1293.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: a literature review. Applied economics, 36(13), 1377-1398.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Karamelikli, H., and Niroomand, F. (2023). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(1), 38-62.
Bailey, M. J., Tavlas, G. S., and Ulan, M. (1986). Exchange-rate variability and trade performance: evidence for the big seven industrial countries. Review of World Economics, 122(3), 466-477.
Baltagi, B. H. (1995). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, New York: Wiley. Baron, D. P. (1976). Fluctuating exchange rates and the pricing of exports. Economic Inquiry, 14(3), 425-438.
Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., and Ozkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 1-23.
Béreau, S., Villavicencio, A. L., and Mignon, V. (2012). Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods. Applied Economics, 44(27), 3503-3511.
Byrne, J. P., Darby, J., and MacDonald, R. (2008). US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis. Journal of macroeconomics, 30(1), 238-259.
Caglayan, M., and Demir, F. (2019). Exchange rate movements, export sophistication and direction of trade: the development channel and North–South trade flows. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 43(6), 1623-1652.
Cheng, K. C., Hong, G. H., Seneviratne, D., and van Elkan, R. (2018). Rethinking the exchange rate impact on trade in a world with global value chains. In Evolving Finance, Trade and Investment in Asia (pp. 40-52). Routledge.
Chit, M. M., Rizov, M., and Willenbockel, D. (2010). Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies. World Economy, 33(2), 239-263.
Cho, G., Sheldon, I.M. and McCorriston, S. (2002), “Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 84 No. 4, pp. 931-42
Choudhry, T. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International economies, 19(1), 51-71.
Chowdhury, A. R. (1993). Does exchange rate volatility depress trade flows? Evidence from error-correction models. The review of economics and statistics, 700-706.
Clark, P. B. (1973) “Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade” Economic Inquiry, 11(3), 302-313.
Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of international Economics, 15(1-2), 45-63.
De Grauwe, P. (1988). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. Staff Papers, 35(1), 63-84.
De Grauwe, P. and G. Verfaille (1988),‘Exchange Rate Variability, Misalignment, and the EuropeanMonetary System’, in Richard Marston (ed.),Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Tradeand Industry, Chicago University Press, pp. 77–100.
Demiral, M. (2016). Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance And Intra-Industry Trade Interactions İn Turkey’s OECD Trade. International Journal Of Economics And Finance, 8(4), 8-22.
De Soyres, F., Frohm, E., Gunnella, V., and Pavlova, E. (2021). Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities. European Economic Review, 140, 103896.
Dellas, H. and Zilberfarb, B. Z. (1993). Real exchange rate volatility and international trade: a reexamination of the theory. Southern Economic Journal, 59(4), 641-647.
Di Nino, Virginia, Barry Eichengreen and Massimo Sbracia (2011). “Real Exchange Rates, Trade and Growth: Italy 1861-2011”, Bank of Italy Economic History Working Papers, No. 10.
Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry Level J-Curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 2(4), 689-706.
Eichengreen, Barry and Gupta, Poonam (2013). “The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?”, Policy Research Working Paper Series 6629, The World Bank.
Ethier, W. (1973). International trade and the forward exchange market. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 494-503.
Financial Times (2015). “Rich Economies Question Faith in Power of Lower Exchange Rates”, Global Insight, published on March, 9th 2015.
Foster‐McGregor, N. (2013). On the Determinants of Investment in Sub‐S aharan African Manufacturing Firms. African Development Review, 25(4), 573-586.
Fouquin, M., Sekkat, K., Mansour, M., Mulder, N., and Nayman, L. (2004). Sector Sensitivity to Exchange Rates Fluctuations. European Integration and the Functionning of Product Market, A. Dierx, F. Ilzkovitz, K. Sekkat editors, Edward Elgard.
Franke, G. (1991). Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(2), 292-307
Freund, Caroline and Martha Denise Pierola (2012). “Export Surges: The Power of a Competitive Currency”, Journal of Development Economics, 97(2): 387-395.
Gala, P., and Lucinda, C. R. (2006). Exchange rate misalignment and growth: old and new econometric evidence. Revista Economia, 7(4), 165-187.
Giovannini, A. (1988). Exchange rates and traded goods prices. Journal of international Economics, 24(1-2), 45-68.
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S. (1978). The supply and demand for exports: a simultaneous approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 275-286.
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S. (1985). Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handbook of international economics, 2, 1041-1105.
Gu, X., Zhou, Z.-Y., and Beg, A. B. M. R. A. (2014). What Determines China’s Trade Balance Dynamics: A Disaggregate Analysis Of Panel Data. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 19(2), 353–368.
Guilhoto, J.J.M., G.J.D. Hewings, H. Johnstone, C. Webb and N. Yamano (2019) "Exploring changes in world production and trade: Insights from the 2018 update of OECD’s ICIO/TIVA database", OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, No. 2019/04, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Gupta-Kapoor, A., and Ramakrishnan, U. (1999). Is there a J-curve? A new estimation for Japan. International Economic Journal, 13(4), 71-79.
Hooper, P., and Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of international Economics, 8(4), 483-511.
Iqbal, J., Aziz, S., and Nosheen, M. (2022). The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 1-31.
Jones, R. W. and Kierzkowski, H. (2001). Horizontal aspects of vertical fragmentation. In Global production and trade in East Asia (pp. 33-51). Boston, MA: Springer US.
Jongwanich, J. (2010). Determinants of export performance in East and Southeast Asia. World Economy, 33(1), 20-41.
Kafle, K. R. (2011). Exchange rate volatility and bilateral agricultural trade flows: the case of the United States and OECD countries. LAP ALMBERT Academic Publishing.
Kandilov, I. T. (2008). The effects of exchange rate volatility on agricultural trade. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1028-1043.
Karadam, D. Y., ve Özmen, E. (2015). Teknolojik yetkinlik ve Türkiye dış ticareti. Iktisat Isletme Ve Finans, 30(357), 09-34.
Kenen, P. B. and Rodrik, D. (1986). Measuring and analyzing the effects of short-term volatility in real exchange rates. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 311-315.
Kharroubi, E. (2011). The trade balance and the real exchange rate. BIS Quarterly Review, September. Klaassen, F. (2004). Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(5), 817-839.
Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 1973 (1): 303-25.
Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 631-652.
Nasir, M. A., and Jackson, K. (2019). An inquiry into exchange rate misalignments as a cause of major global trade imbalances. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(4), 902-924.
Ollivaud, P., Rusticelli, E., and Schwellnus, C. (2015). The changing role of the exchange rate for macroeconomic adjustment. OECD Economics Department Working Paper 1190, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris
Özmen, E. (2014). Reel döviz kuru ve Türkiye dış ticaret dinamikleri. Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics, 14(12), 1-138.
Palazzo, G., and Rapetti, M. (2023). From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 65, 223-252.
Péridy, N. (2003). Exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade, and the aggregation bias. Review of World Economics, 139, 389-418.
Perée, E., and Steinherr, A. (1989). Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade. European Economic Review, 33(6), 1241-1264.
Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
Pesaran, M. H., and Smith, R. P. (1995), "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Journal of Econometrics, 68,79-113.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. P. (1997), "Pooled Estimation of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels," DAE Working Papers Amalgamated Series 9721, University of Cambridge.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Palazzo, G. (2024). Real exchange rate and export surge episodes: What sectors take advantage of the real exchange rate stimulus?. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 68, 446-467.
Rose, A. K. (1991). The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade: Does the ‘Marshall–Lerner’condition hold?. Journal of international economics, 30(3-4), 301-316.
Rose, A. K., ve Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve?. Journal of Monetary economics, 24(1), 53-68.
Saygılı H., Saygılı M. ve Yılmaz G. (2010) Türkiye İçin Yen bi Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Endeksleri, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No: 10/12.
Sharma, C., and Pal, D. (2019). Does exchange rate volatility dampen imports? Commodity-level evidence from India. International Economic Journal, 33(4), 696-718.
Shirvani, H., and Wilbratte, B. (1997). The relationship between the real exchange rate and the trade balance: An empirical reassessment. International economic journal, 11(1), 39-50.
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Toplam 83 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	Türkçe
Konular	Büyüme, Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm	Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar	Saharnaz Damırova 0000-0002-4682-8159 Duygu Yolcu Karadam 0000-0003-3139-2003
Gönderilme Tarihi	7 Mart 2024
Kabul Tarihi	14 Nisan 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi	31 Temmuz 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2025 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 79

Kaynak Göster

APA	Damırova, S., & Yolcu Karadam, D. (2025). Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 20(79), 429-453. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1448412
AMA	Damırova S, Yolcu Karadam D. Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. Temmuz 2025;20(79):429-453. doi:10.19168/jyasar.1448412
Chicago	Damırova, Saharnaz, ve Duygu Yolcu Karadam. “Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 20, sy. 79 (Temmuz 2025): 429-53. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1448412.
EndNote	Damırova S, Yolcu Karadam D (01 Temmuz 2025) Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 20 79 429–453.
IEEE	S. Damırova ve D. Yolcu Karadam, “Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 20, sy. 79, ss. 429–453, 2025, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.1448412.
ISNAD	Damırova, Saharnaz - Yolcu Karadam, Duygu. “Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 20/79 (Temmuz2025), 429-453. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1448412.
JAMA	Damırova S, Yolcu Karadam D. Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2025;20:429–453.
MLA	Damırova, Saharnaz ve Duygu Yolcu Karadam. “Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 20, sy. 79, 2025, ss. 429-53, doi:10.19168/jyasar.1448412.
Vancouver	Damırova S, Yolcu Karadam D. Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Akımlarına Etkisinde Sektörel Farklılıklar: Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2025;20(79):429-53.

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