Türkiye İçin Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Akımları ve Reel Döviz Kurunun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkilerine İlişkin Uygulamalı Bir Araştırma

Öz

Tasarruf açığı ve sermaye birikimi yetersizliği sorunu olan ülkeler, neoliberal politikaların da etkisiyle finansal serbestleşmeye yönelik politikalar uygulamışlardır. Bu nedenle yabancı sermaye hacimlerini arttırmak için yabancı sermaye kısıtlayıcı engeller kaldırılmıştır. Benzer biçimde 1990’lardan itibaren Türkiye de finansal serbestleşme yolunda yabancı sermaye girişini serbestleştirmiştir. Fakat finansal yapı, makroekonomik istikrarsızlık ve politik çalkantılar gibi sebepler bu dönemde Türkiye'nin kriz eğilimlerini artırmış ve kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerdeki ani duruş etkisi nedeniyle ciddi krizler yaşanmıştır. Bunun yanında her türlü yabancı sermaye girişinin ekonomilere yaptığı olumlu katkılarda yok sayılamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada ekonomik büyüme, kısa vadeli sermaye hareketleri ve döviz kuru arasındaki teorik ve ampirik ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmada Ocak 2005-Ocak 2018 dönemine ait sanayi üretim endeksi, ÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru ve kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin göstergesi olarak da portföy yatırımı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki ARDL ve FMOLS, DOLS ve Markov Switching modelleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, reel kur sanayi üretimi için negatif önemli bir etkiye sahipken, portföy yatırımları sanayi üretimi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri,Portföy yatırımları,Ekonomik Büyüme,Reel Döviz Kuru

Kaynakça

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