The Impact of Tourism Revenues in Turkey on Productivity Per Worker: ARDL Approach

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Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin İşgücü Verimliliği Üzerine Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Abstract: The short-run and long-run effects of tourism revenues on output per worker is examined for the Turkish economy during 1988-2018. The first step is to test the order of integration of the variables. The results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test indicated that the series of trade openness has not a unit root on the level I (0) the other series has not a unit root first differences level I (1). Therefore, this study investigates the effects of tourism revenues on output per worker by using ARDL bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001).  The F-statistic estimated for the models were found to be greater than the critical values of Narayan (2005) at the significance level of 5%, thus the presence of cointegration between the variables was confirmed. After the cointegration relationship between the variables was determined, the long-run coefficients were estimated by using ARDL model. The results obtained from ARDL (3,2,1,2,1) estimations indicate that tourism revenues have a positive and statistically significant effect on output per worker in the short-run. The significance of this empirical results is that tourism sector can be considered as an effective economic policy instrument increasing out per worker. Overall the paper suggests that developments of tourism sector increases output per worker for Turkish economy.

Öz: Turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına çıktı üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri Türkiye ekonomisi için 1988-2018 döneminde araştırılmıştır. İlk adım değişkenlerin bütünleşme derecesini test etmektir. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) testi sonuçları ticari açıklık değişkenin seviyesinde I(0) durağan diğer değişkenlerin ise farkında I(1) durağan olduklarını göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma Pesaran ve diğerleri (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi ile turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına çıktı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Modelin tahmininden elde edilen F istatistiği Narayan (2005) %5 anlamlılık seviyesi kritik değerinden büyük olarak bulunduğundan değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi belirlendikten sonra ARDL modeli kullanılarak uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. ARDL (3,2,1,2,1) modelinin tahminlerinden elde edilen bulgular turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına çıktıyı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde kısa dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu ampirik sonuçların önemi işçi başına çıktının artırılmasında etkin ekonomik politika aracı olarak turizm sektörünün düşünülebilmesidir. Sonuçta çalışma turizm sektöründeki gelişmelerin Türkiye için işçi başına çıktıyı artırmasını önermektedir.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism Revenues,Output Per Worker,ARDL Approach

Kaynakça

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