Makro İhtiyati Politikaların Kredi Büyümesini Sınırlamadaki Rolü: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Küresel finansal kriz sonrası dönemde, gelişmiş ülkelerin krizden çıkış için uyguladıkları niceliksel genişleme politikaları, gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik yoğun sermaye girişlerine neden olmuştur. Sermaye girişlerinin beraberinde getirdiği makro-finansal riskler karşısında politika otoriteleri, fiyat istikrarı ve finansal istikrar arasında çeşitli politika açmazları ile karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Fiyat istikrarı ve finansal istikrarın eş anlı sağlanmasında para politikasının ilave araçlarla desteklenme ihtiyacı, birçok gelişmekte olan ülkenin makro ihtiyati politika kullanımını arttırmalarına neden olmuştur. Türkiye de yoğun sermaye girişlerinin yol açtığı makro-finansal risklere maruz kalan yükselen piyasa ekonomileri arasındadır. Ekonominin iç ve dış dengesinin farklılaşmasıyla biriken riskleri mevcut politika çerçevesi ile kontrol altına alamayan Türkiye, yeni politika bileşimini Kasım 2010’dan itibaren uygulamaya başlamıştır. Bu doğrultuda geleneksel enflasyon hedeflemesi, fiyat istikrarına zarar vermeyecek şekilde finansal istikrarın tamamlayıcı bir araç olarak dahil edilmesiyle değiştirilmiş ve para politikası ile makro ihtiyati politika birlikte yürütülmüştür. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de yeni politika bileşimi çerçevesinde uygulanan makro ihtiyati politikaların kredi büyümesindeki aşırılıkları kontrol altına almadaki etkinliği incelemektedir. Türkiye deneyimine ait literatürden farklı olarak, makro ihtiyati politikanın analizinde bir endeks oluşturulmuştur. Makro ihtiyati politika endeksi ile reel toplam kredi büyümesi arasındaki ilişki, 2010:11-2017:12 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde Johansen vd. (2000) yapısal kırılmalı koentegrasyon yaklaşımı kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, Türkiye’de makro ihtiyati politika uygulamalarının kredi büyümesini sınırlayıcı etkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, söz konusu etkinin makro ihtiyati politika duruşunun sıkılaştırma derecesinin arttırılmasının ardından ortaya çıktığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapısal Kırılmalı Koentegrasyon Analizi
• Finansal İstikrar
• Makro İhtiyati Politika
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

The Role of Macroprudential Policies on Controlling Credit Growth: The Case of Turkey

Öz

Following the global financial crisis, the quantitative easing policies implemented by developed countries to recover from the crisis led to large capital inflows into developing countries. In the face of macro-financial risks associated with capital flows, policy authorities had to deal with various policy dilemmas between price stability and financial stability. The need to support monetary policy with additional tools to ensure price stability and financial stability simultaneously has led many developing countries to increase in use of macroprudential policy. Turkey is also among the emerging market economies exposed to the macro-financial risks caused by large capital inflows. Unable to control the risks that accumulated due to the divergence between domestic demand and external demand, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey began to implement a new policy mix from November 2010. To this end, the conventional inflation targeting was modified by incorporating financial stability as a supplementary objective without prejudice to price stability and monetary policy was conducted together with macroprudential policy. This study investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies to control excesses in credit growth under the new policy mix in Turkey. Different from the literature on Turkish experience, an index is constructed to analyze macroprudential policy. By employing cointegration approach with structural breaks of Johansen et al. (2000) the relationship between macroprudential policy index and real total credit growth was estimated covering the period from November 2010 to December 2017. Our empirical findings indicated that macroprudential policy implementations in Turkey have had a limiting effect on credit growth. However, this effect emerged after the tightening of the macroprudential policy stance was increased.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks
• Financial Stability
• Macroprudential Policy
• Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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