Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region

Öz

In this study, macroeconomic factors which affect the change in house prices have been tried to be determined at two digit level in the Aegean region where rapid population increase observed due to industrialization and intensive immigration activity in recent years. In the analysis in which the House Price Index constructed by the CBRT used as the dependent variable, gold price, stock market index, TL/Euro exchange rate, housing loan interest rate, consumer confidence index for housing sector and regional consumer price index were used as exploratory variables.
The existence of the co-integration relationship between the variables was investigated by the ARDL Bound test and it was found that there is a significant relation between the variables in the long term for all three sub-regions. Co-integrated regression coefficients were estimated through FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods. According to the estimation results, house prices in İzmir (TR31) are affected by gold and general price level. In the Aydın sub-region (TR32) gold price, exchange rate, interest rate, population and general price level have significant effect. In the Manisa sub-region (TR33) exchange rate, interest rate and general price level are the main variables affecting housing prices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Housing Prices
• Housing Price Index
• Aegean Region
• Macroeconomic Variable
• Time Series Analysis

Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Ege Bölgesi İçin Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda sanayileşme ve yoğun içgöç hareketliliği nedeniyle hızla nüfusu artan Ege bölgesinde konut fiyatlarındaki değişim üzerinde etkili olan makroekonomik faktörler üç istatistiksel altbölge için belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. TCMB tarafından hazırlanan Konut Fiyat Endeksi’nin bağımlı değişken olarak alındığı analizde altın fiyatı, borsa endeksi, TL/Euro kuru, konut kredisi faiz oranı, konut sektörüne ilişkin tüketici güven endeksi ve bölgesel tüketici fiyat endeksi kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanılmıştır.
Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı ARDL Sınır testi ile araştırılmış ve her üç bölge için de uzun dönemde değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir ilişkinin var olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Eşbütünleşik regresyon katsayıları FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle elde edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre İzmir’de (TR31) konut fiyatları altın ve genel fiyat düzeyinden etkilenmektedir. Aydın altbölgesinde (TR32) altın fiyatı, döviz kuru, faiz oranı, nüfus ve genel fiyat düzeyi anlamlı etkiye sahiptir. Manisa altbölgesinde (TR33) ise döviz kuru, faiz oranı ve genel fiyat düzeyi konut fiyatlarını etkileyen başlıca değişkenler olarak öne çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut Fiyatları
• Konut Fiyat Endeksi
• Ege Bölgesi
• Makroekonomik Değişkenler
• Zaman Serileri Analizi

Kaynakça

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