The Effects of Oil Prices, Gold Prices and Covid-19 Cases on Exchange Rate Effects after the Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey’s Economy

Öz

In this study, it has been investigated the impacts of the number of Covid-19 cases, gold price and exchange rate, oil prices on exchange rate in Turkish economy. In the study, daily data of exchange rate, oil prices, gold prices and Covid-19 case numbers for the period 11.03.2020-06.11.2020 were used for Turkey. There examined the short and long-term relationships between variables were investigated by using ARDL method. According to the findings of the study, a cointegration relationship was found between variables. The findings of the study reveal that oil prices affect the exchange rate negatively and statistically significantly in the long run. According to the model results, a 1% increase in oil prices causes a 0.18% decrease on the exchange rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exchange Rate
• Oil Prices
• Covid-19
• ARDL
• Turkey

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Covid-19 Salgını sonrasında Petrol ve Altın Fiyatları Ile Vaka Sayılarının Döviz Kuru Üzerindeki Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma ile Covid-19 pandemi döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde petrol fiyatlarının, altın fiyatlarının ve Covid-19 vaka sayılarının döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada Covid-19 salgınının başladığı dönem sonrası 12.03.2020-06.11.2020 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kuru, petrol fiyatlarının, altın fiyatlarının ve Covid-19 vaka sayılarının günlük verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiler ARDL yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışma bulgularına göre, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Analiz bulgularına göre uzun dönemde petrol fiyatlarının döviz kurunu negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Model sonuçlarına göre petrol fiyatlarındaki %1’lik artış döviz kuru üzerinde %0,18’lik bir azalmaya neden olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz Kuru
• Altın Fiyatları
• Petrol Fiyatları
• Covid-19
• ARDL Modeli

Kaynakça

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