Does the Value of Currency Affect the Numbers of International Inbound Tourists to Turkey?

Öz

This study examined the effect of the value of the currency on international inbound tourist numbers to Turkey from Germany and Russia, which are the top two tourist generating countries for Turkey. Two different Turkish Lira regimes are investigated with Threshold Vector Autoregressive (Threshold-VAR) models, using the real broad effective exchange rate for Turkey as a threshold variable. The endogenous variables vectors are the macroeconomic variables of the tourist origin countries: the real broad effective exchange rate, consumer price index ratio (proxying for the price level), and total industry production (proxying for income level) for Germany and Russia. Because of data constraints, the estimated Threshold-VAR models for Germany and Russia covered different periods in 1997:01-2020:05 and 2000:01-2020:05, respectively. The key finding for both policymakers and tourism researchers is that when travels become cheaper in the Turkish Lira, this does not always attract more foreign tourists to Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• International Inbound Tourism
• Value of Currency
• Threshold-VAR Model

Paranın Değeri Türkiye’ye Gelen Uluslararası Turist Sayılarını Etkiliyor Mu?

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’ye en çok turist gönderen ilk iki ülke olan Almanya ve Rusya'nın yerel para birimlerinin değerindeki değişimin bu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayıları üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu etki, Türkiye'nin reel efektif döviz kurunun eşik değişken olarak kullanıldığı Eşik Vektör Otoregresif (Eşik-VAR) modeli ile iki farklı Türk Lirası rejimi altında incelenmiştir. İçsel değişkenlerin vektörleri, turist menşeli ülkelerin makroekonomik değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır: Almanya ve Rusya için reel efektif döviz kuru, tüketici fiyat endeksi oranı (fiyat düzeyini temsilen) ve toplam sanayi üretimi (gelir düzeyini temsilen). Almanya ve Rusya için tahmin edilen eşik modelleri, veri kısıtı nedeniyle sırasıyla 1997:01-2020:05 ve 2000:01-2020:05 dönemlerini kapsamaktadır. Hem politika yapıcılar hem de turizm araştırmacıları için temel bulgu, seyahatler Türk Lirası açısından ucuzladığında, bunun her zaman Türkiye'ye daha fazla yabancı turist çekmemesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası Gelen Turist
• Para Biriminin Değeri
• Eşik-VAR Modeli

Kaynakça

1. Balke, N. 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Non- linear Propagation of Shocks", Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 344-349.
2. Catık, A. N., Gök, B., & Akseki, U. 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey", Economic Systems, 39(1), 181-196.
3. Crouch, G. I. 1994. "The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings", Journal of Travel Research, 33 (1), 12-23.
4. Crouch, G. I. 1995. "A Meta-Analysis of Tourism Demand", Annals of Tourism Research, 22 (1), 103-118.
5. Demirel, B., Bozdag, E. G. & Inci, A. G. 2008. “Döviz Kurlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Gelen Turist Sayısına Etkisi; Türkiye Örneği” [The Impact Of Exchange Rates Volatility On Tourist Arrivals: A Case Study Of Turkey], Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi.
6. Dogru, T., Sirakaya-Turk, E. & Crouch, G. I. 2017. "Remodeling International Tourism Demand: Old Theory and New Evidence", Tourism Management, 60 (2017), 47-55.
7. Gozgor, G., Demir, E. & Bilgin, M. H. 2017. "The effects of the military in politics on the inbound tourism: evidence from Turkey", Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(8), 885-893.
8. Habibi, F. 2017. "The Determinants of Inbound Tourism to Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis", Current Issues in Tourism, 20 (9), 909-930.

9. Ilhan, A. & Ozdemir, M. 2019. “Türkiye’de Yeni Politika Bileşiminin Finansal İstikrar ve Fiyat İstikrarı Üzerindeki Etkilerine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 10(4), 789-806.
10. Jeřábek, T. 2019. "The Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Tourism Demand for the South Moravian Region of the Czech Republic from Germany, Poland, Austria, and Slovakia", Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 22 (3), 25-43.
11. Karimi, M. S., Khan, A. A. & Karemelikli, H. 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Inbound Tourist Arrivals in Malaysia: An Analysis of Price Rigidity", International Journal of Tourism Research, 21 (2), 150-164.
12. Kumar, N., Kumar, R.R., Patel, A., Shahzad, S.J.H. & Stauvermann, P. J. 2020. "Modelling Inbound International Tourism Demand in Small Pacific Island Countries", Applied Economics, 52 (10), 1031-1047.
13. Lim, C. 1997. "Review of Internatıonal Tourism Demand Models", Annals of Tourism Research, 24 (4), 835-849.
14. Lim, C. 1999. "A Meta-Analytic Review of International Tourism Demand" Journal of Travel Research, 37 (3), 273-284.
15. Murshed, M., Mahmood, H., Alkhateeb, T. T. Y. & Banerjee, S. 2020. "Calibrating the Impacts of Regional Trade Integration and Renewable Energy Transition on the Sustainability of International Inbound Tourism Demand in South Asia", Sustainability, 12 (20), 8341.
16. Nguyen, L. P. & Nguyen, H. T. 2021. "Factors Impacting Tourism Demand: An Analysis of 10 ASEAN Countries", Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8 (1), 385-393.
17. Polyzos, S., Papadopoulou, G. & Xesfingi, S. 2021. "Examining the link between terrorism and tourism demand: the case of Egypt", Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, DOI: 10.1080/19407963.2021.1904965
18. Provenzano, D. 2020. "The Migration-Tourism Nexus in the EU28", Tourism Economics, 26 (8), 1374-1393.
19. Rünstler, G. & Sédillot, F. 2003. "Short-Term Estimates of Euro Area Real GDP by Means of Monthly Data", European Central Bank Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 276.
20. Tsay, R. S. 1998. "Testing and Modeling Multivariate Threshold Models", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 93, 1188-1998.
21. Vojtko, V., Štumpf, P., Kovačić, M. & Janeček, P. 2018. "Better Understanding of Exchange Rate Effects in Destination Marketing: Cases of the Czech Republic and Croatia", Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 66 (4), 379-395.
22. Wang, YS. 2009. "The Impact of Crisis Events and Macroeconomic Activity on Taiwan's International Inbound Tourism Demand", Tourism Management, 30 (1), 75-82.
23. World Bank 2021. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL (Accessed: 01.03.2021).
24. World Data Atlas 2021. https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Tourism (Accessed: 10.03.2021).
25. Zhang, C., Jiang, F., Wang, S. & Sun, S. 2021. "A New Decomposition Ensemble Approach for Tourism Demand Forecasting: Evidence from Major Source Countries in Asia-Pacific Region" International Journal of Tourism Research, 23 (2), 1-14.
26. Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. 1992. "Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis", Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No.3, 251-270.