Does the Value of Currency Affect the Numbers of International Inbound Tourists to Turkey?

Yıl 2021, , 1150 - 1163, 31.07.2021

Ümit Gaberli , Coşkun Akdeniz , Hasan Selçuk Eti

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.919120

Cited By: 3

Öz

This study examined the effect of the value of the currency on international inbound tourist numbers to Turkey from Germany and Russia, which are the top two tourist generating countries for Turkey. Two different Turkish Lira regimes are investigated with Threshold Vector Autoregressive (Threshold-VAR) models, using the real broad effective exchange rate for Turkey as a threshold variable. The endogenous variables vectors are the macroeconomic variables of the tourist origin countries: the real broad effective exchange rate, consumer price index ratio (proxying for the price level), and total industry production (proxying for income level) for Germany and Russia. Because of data constraints, the estimated Threshold-VAR models for Germany and Russia covered different periods in 1997:01-2020:05 and 2000:01-2020:05, respectively. The key finding for both policymakers and tourism researchers is that when travels become cheaper in the Turkish Lira, this does not always attract more foreign tourists to Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Inbound Tourism, Value of Currency, Threshold-VAR Model

Paranın Değeri Türkiye’ye Gelen Uluslararası Turist Sayılarını Etkiliyor Mu?

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’ye en çok turist gönderen ilk iki ülke olan Almanya ve Rusya'nın yerel para birimlerinin değerindeki değişimin bu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye gelen turist sayıları üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu etki, Türkiye'nin reel efektif döviz kurunun eşik değişken olarak kullanıldığı Eşik Vektör Otoregresif (Eşik-VAR) modeli ile iki farklı Türk Lirası rejimi altında incelenmiştir. İçsel değişkenlerin vektörleri, turist menşeli ülkelerin makroekonomik değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır: Almanya ve Rusya için reel efektif döviz kuru, tüketici fiyat endeksi oranı (fiyat düzeyini temsilen) ve toplam sanayi üretimi (gelir düzeyini temsilen). Almanya ve Rusya için tahmin edilen eşik modelleri, veri kısıtı nedeniyle sırasıyla 1997:01-2020:05 ve 2000:01-2020:05 dönemlerini kapsamaktadır. Hem politika yapıcılar hem de turizm araştırmacıları için temel bulgu, seyahatler Türk Lirası açısından ucuzladığında, bunun her zaman Türkiye'ye daha fazla yabancı turist çekmemesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Gelen Turist, Para Biriminin Değeri, Eşik-VAR Modeli

Kaynakça

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