Enflasyonun Dinamikleri Değişti mi? Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 59, 480 - 489, 31.07.2020

Duygu Yolcu Karadam

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.642407

Cited By: 1

Öz

Son yıllarda yoğun olarak tartışılan Enflasyonun Küreselleşmesi
Hipotezi, ülkeler diğer ülkelerle entegre oldukça enflasyonun belirlenmesinde
küresel faktörlerin yerli faktörlere göre baskın hale geldiğini savunmaktadır.
Bu çalışma, 26 gelişmiş ülke için 1985-2017 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri
kullanılarak bu hipotezin gelişmiş ülkelerde geçerli olup olmadığını
araştırmaktır. Farklı dönemler için Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu yöntemi
ile tahmin edilen Genişletilmiş Phillips denklemlerinden elde edilen bulgular, yabancı
çıktı açığının gelişmiş ülkelerin enflasyonu üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin
olmadığını göstermiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, yabancı çıktı açığı yerine yerli
çıktı açığı artan küreselleşme süreci sonrasında da gelişmiş ülkelerin
enflasyon dinamiklerinde önemli rol oynamaktadır.  Diğer yandan, ülkelerin artan şekilde ithalata
maruz kalması ve üretimin dünya çağında küreselleşmesi ile tutarlı olarak, ithalat
fiyatlarının küreselleşme sonrası dönemde gelişmiş ülkelerin enflasyonunda
ciddi etkisinin olduğu bulunmuştur. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, Küreselleşme, Panel Veri

Has the Dynamics of Inflation Changed? Evidence from Advanced Countries

Öz

Globalization of Inflation hypothesis which is
intensively discussed in the past decades mainly suggests that global factors
have become dominant over domestic factors for the determination of inflation
as economies become more open. This paper investigates whether this hypothesis
holds for industrial countries using a panel data for 26 advanced countries
over 1985-2017 period. Generalized Method of Moments estimates of augmented
Phillips equations for different periods reveal that world output gap’s effect on
industrial countries’ inflation rates is not statistically significant. According
to the findings, domestic output gap rather than foreign output gap plays a
significant role on the dynamics of inflation of advanced economies as the
extent of globalization rises. Additionally, import prices have considerable effect on
countries’ inflation rates in the post-globalization period consistent with the
increase in import penetration and globalization of production throughout the
world.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Globalization, Panel data

Kaynakça

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