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Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 62, 867 - 889, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.846027

Öz

In this study, macroeconomic factors which affect the change in house prices have been tried to be determined at two digit level in the Aegean region where rapid population increase observed due to industrialization and intensive immigration activity in recent years. In the analysis in which the House Price Index constructed by the CBRT used as the dependent variable, gold price, stock market index, TL/Euro exchange rate, housing loan interest rate, consumer confidence index for housing sector and regional consumer price index were used as exploratory variables.
The existence of the co-integration relationship between the variables was investigated by the ARDL Bound test and it was found that there is a significant relation between the variables in the long term for all three sub-regions. Co-integrated regression coefficients were estimated through FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods. According to the estimation results, house prices in İzmir (TR31) are affected by gold and general price level. In the Aydın sub-region (TR32) gold price, exchange rate, interest rate, population and general price level have significant effect. In the Manisa sub-region (TR33) exchange rate, interest rate and general price level are the main variables affecting housing prices.

Kaynakça

  • Afşar, A., Yılmazel, Ö. and Yılmazel, S. (2017). “Determinaning the Parameters of Housing Prices Using Hedonic Model: A Case Study in Eskişehir”, Journal of Selçuk University Enstitute of Social Sciences, 37, 195-205. (In Turkish)
  • Akkaş, M. E. and Sayılgan, G. (2015). “Housing Prices and Mortgage Interest Rate: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test”. Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 2 (4), 572-583. (In Turkish)
  • Akkaya, M. (2018). “An Analysis of Factors Affecting Hedonic Housing Pricing Index”, Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 33 (2), 435–454. (In Turkish)
  • Apergis, N. (2003). “Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union”, International Real Estate Review, 6 (1), 63-74.
  • Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). “The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis”, Journal of Real Estate, Finance and Economics, 17 (2), 179-197.
  • Baldemir, E., Kesbiç, C. Y. and İnci, M. (2008). “Estimating Hedonic Demand Parameters in Real Estate Market: The Case of Muğla”. Journal of Social Sciences, 20, 41–66. (In Turkish)
  • Bayır, M., Güvenoğlu, H. and Kutlu, Ş. Ş. (2019). “An Empiricial Analysis on the Determinants of Housing Prices”, II. International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Science (ICEESS’ 19), June 20-22, 2019, Balıkesir – Turkey (In Turkish)
  • Canbay, Ş. and Mercan, D. (2020). “An Econometric Analysis about the Relationships between Housing Prices, Growth and Macroeconomic Variables in Turkey”, Journal Management and Economics Research, 18 (1), 176-200. (In Turkish)
  • Cingöz, A. (2010). “Analysis of Closed-Cite House Prices in Istanbul”, Journal of Social Sciences, 2, 129–139. (In Turkish)
  • Coşkun, Y., Seven, Ü., Ertuğrul, H. M. and Alp, A. (2020). “Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey”, Housing Studies, 35 (1), 50-86.
  • Court, A. (1939). Hedonic Price Indexes with Automotive Examples. (in) The Dynamics of Automobile Demand, 99-117, General Motors Corporation, New York.
  • Çetintahra, G. E. and Çubukçu, E. (2012). “A Literature Review on Research on Housing Prices with the Hedonic Price Model”. Planlama, 1-2, 86-98. (In Turkish)
  • Çetin, G. and Doğaner, A. (2017). “The Relationship Between Construction Sector and Housing Price Index: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey”, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 4 (2), 155-165. (In Turkish)
  • Dilber, İ. and Sertkaya, Y. (2016). “An Analysis for the Determinants of Housing Prices in Turkey after the 2008 Financial Crisis”, Journal of Social Sciences of Muş Alparslan University, 4 (1), 11-30 (In Turkish).
  • Erdem, O., Oruç, H. and Varlı, Y. (2013). “Housing Market and Macroeconomic Fundamentals”, The ISE Review, 13 (51), 58-78.
  • Eryüzlü, H. and Ekici, S. (2020). “Housing Price Index and Real Exchange Rate Relations: The Case of Turkey”, Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 5 (12), 97-105 (In Turkish).
  • Griliches, Z. (1961). Hedonic price indexes for automobiles: An econometric analysis of quality change. National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago. 0-87014-072-8, 173-196.
  • Hepşen, A. and Aşıcı, M. (2013). “The Association between Current Account Deficit and House Prices in Turkey”, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 3 (3), 65-79.
  • Hülagü, T., Kızılkaya, E., Özbekler, A. G. and Tunar, P. (2016). A Hedonic House Price Index for Turkey. CBRT Working Paper, No. 2016-03.
  • Iacoviello, M. (2000). House Prices and the Macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a Structural VAR Analysis. European Central Bank, Working Paper No. 18.
  • Karaağaç, G. A. and Altınırmak, S. (2018). “The Causality Relationship between Turkey House Price Index, Level Based House Price Index and Selected Variables”, Karadeniz, 39, 222-240. (In Turkish)
  • Karadaş, H. A. and Salihoğlu, E. (2020). “The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices: The Case of Turkey”, The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, 16 (1), 63-80. (In Turkish)
  • Karagöl, T. (2007). A Study of Housing Prices in Ankara. MSc Thesis. Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Housing Price in Turkey”, Ekonomia, 46, 81-98.
  • Kayral, İ. E. (2017). “Research of the Factors Affecting Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir Housing Price Changes”, Çukurova University Journal of Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 21 (1), 65-84. (In Turkish)
  • Kördiş, G., Işık, S. and Mert, M. (2014). “The Estimation of Determinants of House Prices in Antalya: Hedonic Pricing Model”. Akdeniz University Journal of Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 14 (28), 103-132. (In Turkish)
  • Mutluer, D. (2008). “Deriving Real Estate Prices: Country Samples and an Application for Turkey”. TİSK Akademi, 2008/II, 240-278. (In Turkish)
  • Ridker, R.G. and Henning, J.A. (1967). “The Determinants of Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air Pollution”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49, 246– 257.
  • Rosen, S. (1974). “Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition”. The Journal of Political Economy, 82, 34-55.
  • Sağlam, C. and Abdioğlu, Z. (2020). “The Relationship between Hedonic House Prices and Consumer Prices in Turkey: Panel Data Analysis”, Journal of Yaşar University, 15/57, 117-128. (In Turkish)
  • Selim, S. (2008). “Determinants of House Prices in Turkey: A Hedonic Regression Model”. Journal of Doğuş University, 9 (1), 65–76.
  • Tsatsaronis, K. and Zhu, H. (2004). “What Drives Housing Price Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence”. BIS (Bank of International Settlements) Quarterly Review, March-2004, 65-78.
  • Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2001). “Factors Affecting Property Prices in Izmir Province: Hedonic Approach”. Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 16 (2), 149–161. (In Turkish)
  • Waugh, F. W. (1928). “Quality Factors Influencing Vegetable Prices”. Journal of Farm Economics, 10 (2), 185-196.
  • Yankaya, U. and Çelik, H. M. (2005). “Modeling the Effects of Izmir Metro on Housing Prices Using Hedonic Price Method”. Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 20 (2), 61–79. (In Turkish)
  • Yıldırım, M. O. (2017). Analyzing Housing Market Dynamics in Turkey’s Economy. PhD Thesis, Pamukkale University, Enstitute of Social Sciences, Denizli, Turkey. (In Turkish)
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Ivrendi, M. (2017). “House Prices and the Macroeconomic Environment in Turkey: The Examination of a Dynamic Relationship”, Economic Annals, 62 (215), 81-110.
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Yağcıbaşı, M. (2019). “The Dynamics of House Prices and Fiscal Policy Shocks in Turkey”, Economic Annals, 64 (220), 39-59.

Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Ege Bölgesi İçin Bir Analiz

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 62, 867 - 889, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.846027

Öz

Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda sanayileşme ve yoğun içgöç hareketliliği nedeniyle hızla nüfusu artan Ege bölgesinde konut fiyatlarındaki değişim üzerinde etkili olan makroekonomik faktörler üç istatistiksel altbölge için belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. TCMB tarafından hazırlanan Konut Fiyat Endeksi’nin bağımlı değişken olarak alındığı analizde altın fiyatı, borsa endeksi, TL/Euro kuru, konut kredisi faiz oranı, konut sektörüne ilişkin tüketici güven endeksi ve bölgesel tüketici fiyat endeksi kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanılmıştır.
Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı ARDL Sınır testi ile araştırılmış ve her üç bölge için de uzun dönemde değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir ilişkinin var olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Eşbütünleşik regresyon katsayıları FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle elde edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre İzmir’de (TR31) konut fiyatları altın ve genel fiyat düzeyinden etkilenmektedir. Aydın altbölgesinde (TR32) altın fiyatı, döviz kuru, faiz oranı, nüfus ve genel fiyat düzeyi anlamlı etkiye sahiptir. Manisa altbölgesinde (TR33) ise döviz kuru, faiz oranı ve genel fiyat düzeyi konut fiyatlarını etkileyen başlıca değişkenler olarak öne çıkmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Afşar, A., Yılmazel, Ö. and Yılmazel, S. (2017). “Determinaning the Parameters of Housing Prices Using Hedonic Model: A Case Study in Eskişehir”, Journal of Selçuk University Enstitute of Social Sciences, 37, 195-205. (In Turkish)
  • Akkaş, M. E. and Sayılgan, G. (2015). “Housing Prices and Mortgage Interest Rate: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test”. Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 2 (4), 572-583. (In Turkish)
  • Akkaya, M. (2018). “An Analysis of Factors Affecting Hedonic Housing Pricing Index”, Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 33 (2), 435–454. (In Turkish)
  • Apergis, N. (2003). “Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union”, International Real Estate Review, 6 (1), 63-74.
  • Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). “The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis”, Journal of Real Estate, Finance and Economics, 17 (2), 179-197.
  • Baldemir, E., Kesbiç, C. Y. and İnci, M. (2008). “Estimating Hedonic Demand Parameters in Real Estate Market: The Case of Muğla”. Journal of Social Sciences, 20, 41–66. (In Turkish)
  • Bayır, M., Güvenoğlu, H. and Kutlu, Ş. Ş. (2019). “An Empiricial Analysis on the Determinants of Housing Prices”, II. International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Science (ICEESS’ 19), June 20-22, 2019, Balıkesir – Turkey (In Turkish)
  • Canbay, Ş. and Mercan, D. (2020). “An Econometric Analysis about the Relationships between Housing Prices, Growth and Macroeconomic Variables in Turkey”, Journal Management and Economics Research, 18 (1), 176-200. (In Turkish)
  • Cingöz, A. (2010). “Analysis of Closed-Cite House Prices in Istanbul”, Journal of Social Sciences, 2, 129–139. (In Turkish)
  • Coşkun, Y., Seven, Ü., Ertuğrul, H. M. and Alp, A. (2020). “Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey”, Housing Studies, 35 (1), 50-86.
  • Court, A. (1939). Hedonic Price Indexes with Automotive Examples. (in) The Dynamics of Automobile Demand, 99-117, General Motors Corporation, New York.
  • Çetintahra, G. E. and Çubukçu, E. (2012). “A Literature Review on Research on Housing Prices with the Hedonic Price Model”. Planlama, 1-2, 86-98. (In Turkish)
  • Çetin, G. and Doğaner, A. (2017). “The Relationship Between Construction Sector and Housing Price Index: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey”, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 4 (2), 155-165. (In Turkish)
  • Dilber, İ. and Sertkaya, Y. (2016). “An Analysis for the Determinants of Housing Prices in Turkey after the 2008 Financial Crisis”, Journal of Social Sciences of Muş Alparslan University, 4 (1), 11-30 (In Turkish).
  • Erdem, O., Oruç, H. and Varlı, Y. (2013). “Housing Market and Macroeconomic Fundamentals”, The ISE Review, 13 (51), 58-78.
  • Eryüzlü, H. and Ekici, S. (2020). “Housing Price Index and Real Exchange Rate Relations: The Case of Turkey”, Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 5 (12), 97-105 (In Turkish).
  • Griliches, Z. (1961). Hedonic price indexes for automobiles: An econometric analysis of quality change. National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago. 0-87014-072-8, 173-196.
  • Hepşen, A. and Aşıcı, M. (2013). “The Association between Current Account Deficit and House Prices in Turkey”, Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 3 (3), 65-79.
  • Hülagü, T., Kızılkaya, E., Özbekler, A. G. and Tunar, P. (2016). A Hedonic House Price Index for Turkey. CBRT Working Paper, No. 2016-03.
  • Iacoviello, M. (2000). House Prices and the Macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a Structural VAR Analysis. European Central Bank, Working Paper No. 18.
  • Karaağaç, G. A. and Altınırmak, S. (2018). “The Causality Relationship between Turkey House Price Index, Level Based House Price Index and Selected Variables”, Karadeniz, 39, 222-240. (In Turkish)
  • Karadaş, H. A. and Salihoğlu, E. (2020). “The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices: The Case of Turkey”, The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, 16 (1), 63-80. (In Turkish)
  • Karagöl, T. (2007). A Study of Housing Prices in Ankara. MSc Thesis. Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Housing Price in Turkey”, Ekonomia, 46, 81-98.
  • Kayral, İ. E. (2017). “Research of the Factors Affecting Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir Housing Price Changes”, Çukurova University Journal of Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 21 (1), 65-84. (In Turkish)
  • Kördiş, G., Işık, S. and Mert, M. (2014). “The Estimation of Determinants of House Prices in Antalya: Hedonic Pricing Model”. Akdeniz University Journal of Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 14 (28), 103-132. (In Turkish)
  • Mutluer, D. (2008). “Deriving Real Estate Prices: Country Samples and an Application for Turkey”. TİSK Akademi, 2008/II, 240-278. (In Turkish)
  • Ridker, R.G. and Henning, J.A. (1967). “The Determinants of Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air Pollution”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49, 246– 257.
  • Rosen, S. (1974). “Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition”. The Journal of Political Economy, 82, 34-55.
  • Sağlam, C. and Abdioğlu, Z. (2020). “The Relationship between Hedonic House Prices and Consumer Prices in Turkey: Panel Data Analysis”, Journal of Yaşar University, 15/57, 117-128. (In Turkish)
  • Selim, S. (2008). “Determinants of House Prices in Turkey: A Hedonic Regression Model”. Journal of Doğuş University, 9 (1), 65–76.
  • Tsatsaronis, K. and Zhu, H. (2004). “What Drives Housing Price Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence”. BIS (Bank of International Settlements) Quarterly Review, March-2004, 65-78.
  • Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2001). “Factors Affecting Property Prices in Izmir Province: Hedonic Approach”. Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 16 (2), 149–161. (In Turkish)
  • Waugh, F. W. (1928). “Quality Factors Influencing Vegetable Prices”. Journal of Farm Economics, 10 (2), 185-196.
  • Yankaya, U. and Çelik, H. M. (2005). “Modeling the Effects of Izmir Metro on Housing Prices Using Hedonic Price Method”. Journal of Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, 20 (2), 61–79. (In Turkish)
  • Yıldırım, M. O. (2017). Analyzing Housing Market Dynamics in Turkey’s Economy. PhD Thesis, Pamukkale University, Enstitute of Social Sciences, Denizli, Turkey. (In Turkish)
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Ivrendi, M. (2017). “House Prices and the Macroeconomic Environment in Turkey: The Examination of a Dynamic Relationship”, Economic Annals, 62 (215), 81-110.
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Yağcıbaşı, M. (2019). “The Dynamics of House Prices and Fiscal Policy Shocks in Turkey”, Economic Annals, 64 (220), 39-59.
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Kadir Karagöz

Gökhan Özkubat 0000-0001-8845-8072

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 62

Kaynak Göster

APA Karagöz, K., & Özkubat, G. (2021). Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(62), 867-889. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.846027
AMA Karagöz K, Özkubat G. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. Nisan 2021;16(62):867-889. doi:10.19168/jyasar.846027
Chicago Karagöz, Kadir, ve Gökhan Özkubat. “Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16, sy. 62 (Nisan 2021): 867-89. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.846027.
EndNote Karagöz K, Özkubat G (01 Nisan 2021) Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16 62 867–889.
IEEE K. Karagöz ve G. Özkubat, “Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 16, sy. 62, ss. 867–889, 2021, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.846027.
ISNAD Karagöz, Kadir - Özkubat, Gökhan. “Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16/62 (Nisan 2021), 867-889. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.846027.
JAMA Karagöz K, Özkubat G. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2021;16:867–889.
MLA Karagöz, Kadir ve Gökhan Özkubat. “Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 16, sy. 62, 2021, ss. 867-89, doi:10.19168/jyasar.846027.
Vancouver Karagöz K, Özkubat G. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices: An Analysis for Aegean Region. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2021;16(62):867-89.