Türkiye Ekonomisinde Covid-19 Salgını sonrasında Petrol ve Altın Fiyatları Ile Vaka Sayılarının Döviz Kuru Üzerindeki Etkileri
Öz
Bu çalışma ile Covid-19 pandemi döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde petrol fiyatlarının, altın fiyatlarının ve Covid-19 vaka sayılarının döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada Covid-19 salgınının başladığı dönem sonrası 12.03.2020-06.11.2020 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kuru, petrol fiyatlarının, altın fiyatlarının ve Covid-19 vaka sayılarının günlük verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiler ARDL yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışma bulgularına göre, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Analiz bulgularına göre uzun dönemde petrol fiyatlarının döviz kurunu negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Model sonuçlarına göre petrol fiyatlarındaki %1’lik artış döviz kuru üzerinde %0,18’lik bir azalmaya neden olmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Döviz Kuru Altın Fiyatları Petrol Fiyatları Covid-19 ARDL Modeli
Destekleyen Kurum
Herhangi bir kurumdan destek alınmamıştır.
Kaynakça
- Adıgüzel Uğur, Bayat Tayfur, Kayhan Selim. 2016. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Amprik Analizi: Asimmetrik Nedensellik Analizi.” C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 17 (2): 241-252.
- Aimer, Nagmi M. Moftah. 2017. “The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration.” SSRN 1-9.
- Cardona-Arenas Carlos David, Serna-Gómez Héctor Mauricio. 2020. “Covid-19 and Oil Prices: Effects on the Colombian Peso Exchange Rate.” 1-15.
- Coskun Yener, Seven Unal, Ertuğrul Hasan M. ve Ulussever, Talat. 2017. “Capital Market And Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey.” Central Bank Review 17 (1): 19-29.
- Ehikioya Benjamin Ighodalo, Omankhanlen Alexander Ehimare, Babajide Ayopo Abiola, Osuma Godswill Osagie, Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi. 2020. “Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10 (6): 242-249.
- Hamza Namadina, Elijah Sunday. 2018. “Testing Asymetric Effect Of Oil Price On Exchange Rate In Nigeria: New Evidence From Nonlinear ARDL Approach.” Gombe Journal Of General Studies 2 (1): 200-210.
- Jain Anshul, Biswal P.C. 2016. “Dynamic Linkages Among Oil price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate, And Stock Market In India.” Resources Policy 49: 179-185.
- K., Narayan S. ve Narayan P. 2004. “Determinants of Demand of Fiji`s Exports: An Emprical İnvestigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- Ks Sujit, Kumar Rajesh. 2011. “Study on dynamic relationship among gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock market returns.” International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research 9 (2): 145-165.
- Musa Kabiru Saidu, Maijama’a Rabiu, Muhammed Nafisa , Usman Asma’u. 2020. “Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Nexus: An Ardl Bound Approach.” Open Access Library Journal 1-24.
- Narayan, S, və P.K. Narayan. 2004. “Determinats of Demand of Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- P, Srinivasan. 2014. “Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange Rate Nexus: The Case of India.” The Romanian Economic Journal Year XVII (52): 77-94.
- Peseran, M.H. 1997. “The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run.” Economic Journal 107 (440): 178-191.
- Peseran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith? R.J. 2001. “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289-326.
- Peseran, M.H., Y Shin, və R.J Smith. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289-326.
- Peseran. K., Narayan S. ve Narayan. 2004. “Determinants of Demand of Fiji's Exports: An Emprical Investigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- Rahimli Nurlan, Nazirov Mahir. 2020. “Impact of Oil Price On Azerbaijan Economy: Relationship Between Oil Prices,Real Efective Exchange Rates And Real GDP.” Aserc Journal Of Socio-Economics Studies 3 (1): 37-45.
- Singhal Shelly, Choudhary Sangita, Biswal Pratap Chandra. 2019. “Return And Volatility Linkages Among International Crude Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate And Stock Markets: Evidence From Mexico.” Resources Policy 60: 255-261.
- Şit Ahmet, Telek Cebrail. 2020. “Covid-19 Pandemisinin Altın Ons Fiyatı ve Dolar Endeksi Üzerine Etkileri.” Gaziantep University Journal Of Social Sciences (Special İssue): 1-13.
- Suliman Tilal Hassen Mohammed, Abid Mehdi. 2020. “The İmpacts Of Oil Price On Exchange Rates: Evidence From Saudi Arabia.” Energy Exploration & Exploitation 38 (5): 2037-2058.
- Sunday, Adebayo Tomiwa. 2020. “Does the Oil Price Influence the Exchange Rates in Nigeria? Empirical Evidence from Wavelet and Causality Approaches.” Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research 7 (2): 126-135.
- Zekai, Şenol. 2020. “Borsa, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Oynaklık Yayılımı.” Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi 22 (4): 629-647.
The Effects of Oil Prices, Gold Prices and Covid-19 Cases on Exchange Rate Effects after the Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey’s Economy
Öz
In this study, it has been investigated the impacts of the number of Covid-19 cases, gold price and exchange rate, oil prices on exchange rate in Turkish economy. In the study, daily data of exchange rate, oil prices, gold prices and Covid-19 case numbers for the period 11.03.2020-06.11.2020 were used for Turkey. There examined the short and long-term relationships between variables were investigated by using ARDL method. According to the findings of the study, a cointegration relationship was found between variables. The findings of the study reveal that oil prices affect the exchange rate negatively and statistically significantly in the long run. According to the model results, a 1% increase in oil prices causes a 0.18% decrease on the exchange rate.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Adıgüzel Uğur, Bayat Tayfur, Kayhan Selim. 2016. “Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Amprik Analizi: Asimmetrik Nedensellik Analizi.” C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 17 (2): 241-252.
- Aimer, Nagmi M. Moftah. 2017. “The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration.” SSRN 1-9.
- Cardona-Arenas Carlos David, Serna-Gómez Héctor Mauricio. 2020. “Covid-19 and Oil Prices: Effects on the Colombian Peso Exchange Rate.” 1-15.
- Coskun Yener, Seven Unal, Ertuğrul Hasan M. ve Ulussever, Talat. 2017. “Capital Market And Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey.” Central Bank Review 17 (1): 19-29.
- Ehikioya Benjamin Ighodalo, Omankhanlen Alexander Ehimare, Babajide Ayopo Abiola, Osuma Godswill Osagie, Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi. 2020. “Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10 (6): 242-249.
- Hamza Namadina, Elijah Sunday. 2018. “Testing Asymetric Effect Of Oil Price On Exchange Rate In Nigeria: New Evidence From Nonlinear ARDL Approach.” Gombe Journal Of General Studies 2 (1): 200-210.
- Jain Anshul, Biswal P.C. 2016. “Dynamic Linkages Among Oil price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate, And Stock Market In India.” Resources Policy 49: 179-185.
- K., Narayan S. ve Narayan P. 2004. “Determinants of Demand of Fiji`s Exports: An Emprical İnvestigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- Ks Sujit, Kumar Rajesh. 2011. “Study on dynamic relationship among gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock market returns.” International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research 9 (2): 145-165.
- Musa Kabiru Saidu, Maijama’a Rabiu, Muhammed Nafisa , Usman Asma’u. 2020. “Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Nexus: An Ardl Bound Approach.” Open Access Library Journal 1-24.
- Narayan, S, və P.K. Narayan. 2004. “Determinats of Demand of Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- P, Srinivasan. 2014. “Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange Rate Nexus: The Case of India.” The Romanian Economic Journal Year XVII (52): 77-94.
- Peseran, M.H. 1997. “The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run.” Economic Journal 107 (440): 178-191.
- Peseran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith? R.J. 2001. “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289-326.
- Peseran, M.H., Y Shin, və R.J Smith. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289-326.
- Peseran. K., Narayan S. ve Narayan. 2004. “Determinants of Demand of Fiji's Exports: An Emprical Investigation.” The Developing Economics 42 (1): 95-112.
- Rahimli Nurlan, Nazirov Mahir. 2020. “Impact of Oil Price On Azerbaijan Economy: Relationship Between Oil Prices,Real Efective Exchange Rates And Real GDP.” Aserc Journal Of Socio-Economics Studies 3 (1): 37-45.
- Singhal Shelly, Choudhary Sangita, Biswal Pratap Chandra. 2019. “Return And Volatility Linkages Among International Crude Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate And Stock Markets: Evidence From Mexico.” Resources Policy 60: 255-261.
- Şit Ahmet, Telek Cebrail. 2020. “Covid-19 Pandemisinin Altın Ons Fiyatı ve Dolar Endeksi Üzerine Etkileri.” Gaziantep University Journal Of Social Sciences (Special İssue): 1-13.
- Suliman Tilal Hassen Mohammed, Abid Mehdi. 2020. “The İmpacts Of Oil Price On Exchange Rates: Evidence From Saudi Arabia.” Energy Exploration & Exploitation 38 (5): 2037-2058.
- Sunday, Adebayo Tomiwa. 2020. “Does the Oil Price Influence the Exchange Rates in Nigeria? Empirical Evidence from Wavelet and Causality Approaches.” Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research 7 (2): 126-135.
- Zekai, Şenol. 2020. “Borsa, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Oynaklık Yayılımı.” Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi 22 (4): 629-647.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Nisan 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 62 |
