Arnavutluk ve Avrupa Birliği’nde Hanehalkı Tüketimi ve Gıda Fiyatları Kırılganlığı: Covid-19 Öncesi, Sırası ve Sonrası Üzerine Bir Analiz

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 112 - 132, 31.12.2025

Azmi Stringa , Arlinda Topciu

https://izlik.org/JA68ZP73RL

Öz

Bu makale, 2014–2023 yılları arasında enflasyon ve gıda fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Arnavutluk’ta hanehalkı reel tüketimi ve gıda harcamaları üzerindeki etkilerini, Avrupa Birliği ile karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektedir. INSTAT, Eurostat, IMF ve Arnavutluk Merkez Bankası’ndan elde edilen veriler kullanılarak, pandemi öncesi, pandemi dönemi ve pandemi sonrası olmak üzere üç farklı dönem boyunca yaşanan eğilimler analiz edilmektedir. Arnavutluk’un kişi başına reel GSYH’sında %40’lık bir artış ve önemli ölçüde kur değerlenmesi yaşanmasına rağmen, bulgular gıda ve alkolsüz içecek tüketiminde on yılın büyük bölümünde reel küçülmeye işaret etmektedir. Buna karşılık Avrupa Birliği’nde benzer düşüşler yalnızca pandemi sonrasında ve en son 2008–2009 küresel finansal krizi sırasında gözlemlenmiştir. Arnavutluk’un yüksek gıda harcaması payı ve daha sert fiyat artışları, hanehalklarını enflasyona karşı daha kırılgan hâle getirmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, gıda bağımlılığı yüksek olan ekonomilerde hane refahının korunabilmesi için kapsayıcı büyüme politikalarının geliştirilmesi, gıda güvenliğinin sağlanması ve piyasa rekabetinin güçlendirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon , Ekonomik büyüme , Hanehalkı Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi , Gıda fiyatları , Hanehalkı Tüketimi

Household Consumption and Food Price Vulnerability in Albania and European Union: A Before, During and After Covid-19 Analysis

https://izlik.org/JA68ZP73RL

Öz

This paper examines how inflation and food price changes from 2014 to 2023 affected real household consumption and food expenditure in Albania, compared to the European Union. Using a quantitative approach and data from INSTAT, Eurostat, IMF, and the Bank of Albania, it analyzes trends across three periods: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic. Despite Albania’s 40% real GDP per capita growth and significant currency appreciation, findings reveal negative real growth in food and non-alcoholic beverage consumption throughout most of the decade—unlike the EU, where such declines appeared post-pandemic and were last observed during the during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Albania’s high food expenditure share and steeper price increases made households more vulnerable to inflation. The results highlight the need for inclusive growth, food security, and stronger market competition to protect household welfare in economies with high food dependency.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation , Economy growth , Household Index of Consumer Prices , Food prices , Household Consumption

Kaynakça

• Albanian Association of Banks. (2023, October 26). BSH: Forcimi i Lekut e ka ulur inflacionin me 2.5 pikë, i ka kursyer ekonomisë 92 miliardë lekë në dy vjet. https://aab.al/bsh-forcimi-i-lekut-e-ka-ulur-inflacionin-me-2-5-pike-i-ka-kursyer-ekonomise-92-miliarde-leke-ne-dy-vjet-2/
• Bank of Albania. (2014–2024). Kursi zyrtar i këmbimit në Shqipëri. https://www.bankofalbania.org/Tregjet/Kursi_zyrtar_i_kembimit/
• Bank of Albania. (2022). Raporti Tremujor i Politikës Monetare, 2022/IV. https://www.bankofalbania.org/Politika_Monetare/Raportet_Periodike/Raporti_Tremujor_i_Politikes_Monetare_2022_IV.html
• Bank of Albania. (2024). Raporti Tremujor i Politikës Monetare, 2024/IV. https://www.bankofalbania.org/Politika_Monetare/Raportet_Periodike/Raporti_Tremujor_i_Politikes_Monetare_2024_IV_40375.html
• Ben Abdallah, M.; Fekete-Farkas, M.; Lakner, Z. (2021). Exploring the link between food security and food price dynamics: A bibliometric analysis. Agriculture, 11(3), 263. https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/3/263
• Eurostat. (2013–2024). Final consumption expenditure of households by consumption purpose. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/PRC_HICP_AIND__custom_13440383/default/table?lang=en
• Eurostat. (2013–2024). Harmonised index of consumer prices, monthly data (index). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_midx__custom_16311217/default/table?lang=en Eurostat. (2024). Comparative price levels for food, beverages and tobacco. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Comparative_price_levels_for_food,_beverages_and_tobacco
• Eurostat. (2024). Household consumption by purpose. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Household_consumption_by_purpose
• Food and Agriculture Organization. (2008). The state of food insecurity in the world 2008: High food prices and food security. https://www.fao.org/4/i0291e/i0291e03.pdf
• Food and Agriculture Organization. (2025). Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the total population. https://www.fao.org/interactive/state-of-food-security-nutrition/2-1-1/en/
• Institute of Statistics. (2013–2024). Anketa e buxhetit të njësive ekonomike familjare. https://www.instat.gov.al/al/temat/kushtet-sociale/anketa-e-buxhetit-t%C3%AB-nj%C3%ABsive-ekonomike-familjare/#tab3
• Instat. (2013–2024). Annual change of harmonised index of consumer price. https://www.instat.gov.al/en/themes/prices/harmonized-index-of-consumer-price/#tab3
• Instat. (2013–2024). Foreign trade. https://www.instat.gov.al/al/temat/tregtia-e-jashtme/tregtia-e-jashtme-e-mallrave/#tab3 International Labour Organization, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, European Union, United Nations, & The World Bank. (2020). Consumer price index manual: Concepts and methods. International Monetary Fund.
• International Monetary Fund. (2016). Albania: Staff report for the 2016 Article IV consultation, seventh review under the extended arrangement, and request for waiver of applicability and modification of performance criteria—Press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for Albania. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2016/12/31/Albania-Staff-Report-for-the-2016-Article-IV-Consultation-Seventh-Review-Under-the-Extended-43938
• International Monetary Fund. (2024). World economic outlook database 2024. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October
• Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries (English). Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 4594. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/253001468150585777
• Ivanic, Maros; Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will. (2013). Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 6535. World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15893 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
• Kurkowiak, B. (2013). Statistics in focus 15/2013: Comparative price levels for food, beverages and tobacco—Data 2012. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Archive:Comparative_price_levels_for_food,_beverages_and_tobacco_-_data_2012&oldid=174880
• Meyer, J., & von Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2004). Asymmetric price transmission: A survey. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 55(3), 581–611. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2004.tb00116.x
• Scan TV. (2022, December 12). Çmimet e konsumit, problemi kryesor i shqiptarëve/ Barometri Ekonomik Scan: Ndjekin taksat dhe papunësia, situata politike renditet e fundit. https://scantv.al/cmimet-e-konsumit-problemi-kryesor-i-shqiptareve-barometri-ekonomik-scan-ndjekin-taksat-dhe-papunesia-situata-politike-renditet-e-fundit
• Stringa, A., Gjata, I., & Korbi, A. (2025). Inflation and Food Prices in Albania, Western Balkans and EU: A ‎Comparative Analysis Before and After COVID-19. International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 12(5), 1185-1200. https://doi.org/10.14419/069n8j35
• UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. (2024). UK food security report 2024. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6756e300a63e1781efb877a1/United_Kingdom_Food_Security_Report_2024_11dec2024_printable.pdf
• UK Office for National Statistics. (2023, December 4). ONS household expenditure data insights into the effects of cost-of-living pressures. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/onshouseholdexpendituredatainsightsintotheeffectsofcostsoflivingpressures/4december2023
• World Economic Forum. (2022, June 14). This is the biggest concern for Americans right now, according to a new survey. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/06/inflation-is-americans-top-concern/