Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye

Alkan Günlü; Fatih Sivrikaya; Hasan Emre Ünal

doi:10.17475/kastorman.1660540

EN TR

Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye

Öz

Aim of study: To determine the potential changes that may occur in land use classes in Akyazı Forest Enterprise for 2030 and 2042. Area of study: Akyazı Forest Enterprise was selected as the study area. Material and method: In this study, the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land use land cover (LULC) datasets for the years 2006, 2012 and 2018 were used. The Markov model derived transition area and transition probability matrices (TPM) for 2018 based on the LULC maps derived from CORINE for 2006 and 2012. These matrices were used to predict LULC classes in 2018 through a 10-year simulation using the CA-Markov module. Main results: A comparison was made between the projected LULC classes map and the land use class map derived from the 2018 CORINE data, and a similarity rate of 91.1% was found. For the 24 years from 2018 to 2042, the total forest area is predicted to increase by 3.8% or 581.5 ha. Research highlights: The forecasted outcomes acquired for the future can aid in developing revised forest management strategies, particularly in ensuring the long-term viability of forest ecosystems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forest Management, Sustainability, Simulation, Change Detection, Türkiye

CA-Markov Yöntemiyle 2018'den 2042'ye Arazi Kullanımı ve Arazi Örtüsü Değişimlerinin Tahmini: Türkiye'den Bir Vaka Çalışması

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı: Akyazı Orman İşletme Müdürlüğü’nde 2030 ve 2042 yıllarında arazi kullanım sınıflarında meydana gelebilecek potansiyel değişiklikleri belirlemektir. Çalışma alanı: Çalışma alanı olarak Akyazı Orman İşletme Müdürlüğü seçilmiştir. Materyal ve yöntem: Bu çalışmada, 2006, 2012 ve 2018 yıllarına ait CORINE arazi örtüsü veri setleri kullanılmıştır. Markov modeli, 2006 ve 2012 yılları için CORINE'den türetilen arazi kullanım sınıfları haritalarına dayanarak 2018 yılı için geçiş alanı ve geçiş olasılığı matrislerini türetilmiştir. Bu matrisler kullanılarak, 2018 yılındaki arazi kullanım sınıfları tahmini, CA-Markov modülü kullanılarak 10 yıllık bir simülasyon yoluyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Temel sonuçlar: Tahmin edilen arazi kullanım sınıfları haritası ile 2018 CORINE verilerinden türetilen arazi kullanım sınıfları haritası arasında bir karşılaştırma yapılmış ve %91.1'lik bir benzerlik oranı bulunmuştur. 2018'den 2042'ye kadar olan 24 yıl için toplam orman alanının %3.8 veya 581.5 hektar genişleyeceği tahmin edilmektedir. Araştırma vurguları: Gelecek için elde edilen öngörülen çıktılar, özellikle orman ekosistemlerinin uzun vadeli sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanmasında, revize edilmiş orman yönetim stratejilerinin geliştirilmesine yardımcı olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Orman Amenajmanı, Sürdürülebilirlik, Simülasyon, Değişim Tespiti, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ormancılık (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Alkan Günlü ^*
Türkiye

Fatih Sivrikaya
Türkiye

Hasan Emre Ünal
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

24 Mart 2025

Yayımlanma Tarihi

26 Mart 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

6 Ağustos 2024

Kabul Tarihi

7 Ekim 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1660540

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA95JZ32TK

APA

Günlü, A., Sivrikaya, F., & Ünal, H. E. (2025). Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, 25(1), 34-52. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1660540

AMA

1.Günlü A, Sivrikaya F, Ünal HE. Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2025;25(1):34-52. doi:10.17475/kastorman.1660540

Chicago

Günlü, Alkan, Fatih Sivrikaya, ve Hasan Emre Ünal. 2025. “Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25 (1): 34-52. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1660540.

EndNote

Günlü A, Sivrikaya F, Ünal HE (01 Mart 2025) Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25 1 34–52.

IEEE

[1]A. Günlü, F. Sivrikaya, ve H. E. Ünal, “Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye”, Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, c. 25, sy 1, ss. 34–52, Mar. 2025, doi: 10.17475/kastorman.1660540.

ISNAD

Günlü, Alkan - Sivrikaya, Fatih - Ünal, Hasan Emre. “Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25/1 (01 Mart 2025): 34-52. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1660540.

JAMA

1.Günlü A, Sivrikaya F, Ünal HE. Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2025;25:34–52.

MLA

Günlü, Alkan, vd. “Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, c. 25, sy 1, Mart 2025, ss. 34-52, doi:10.17475/kastorman.1660540.

Vancouver

1.Alkan Günlü, Fatih Sivrikaya, Hasan Emre Ünal. Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 01 Mart 2025;25(1):34-52. doi:10.17475/kastorman.1660540

Cited By

Spatiotemporal simulation of land use and land cover changes in Türkiye through a CA–Markov framework

Scientific Reports

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35807-9

Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes from 2018 to 2042 Using CA-Markov: A Case Study from Türkiye

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

CA-Markov Yöntemiyle 2018'den 2042'ye Arazi Kullanımı ve Arazi Örtüsü Değişimlerinin Tahmini: Türkiye'den Bir Vaka Çalışması

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

Cited By

Spatiotemporal simulation of land use and land cover changes in Türkiye through a CA–Markov framework