INTERNATIONAL RESERVE CURRENCIES AND THE FUTURE OF THE CHINESE YUAN

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, rezerv paraya sahip ülkeler içinde Çin Yuan’ının gelecekte güçlü bir para birimi olma potansiyelini araştırmaktır. Çalışma için kullanılan GSYH (dünya payı), toplam rezervlerin ülke GSYH içindeki payları ve TÜFE değişkeni rezerv para kriterleri içerisinden seçilmiştir. Araştırma kapsamında analiz edilen ülkeler resmi olarak rezerv paraya sahiptirler. Çalışmada, Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) tahmin modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, Çin Yuan’ının belirlenen kriterleri karşıladığı ve gelecekte güçlü bir para olma potansiyeli taşıdığı tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca çalışmada, ABD’nin gelecekte güçlü bir rezerv para olarak varlığını sürdüreceği, ancak bu gücünü belirlenen kriterlere göre kaybedebileceği öngörülmektedir. Almanya ve İngiltere’nin belirlenen kriterlerde zayıf kalacağı tahmin edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rezerv para birimi
• Yuan
• Yapay Sinir Ağları

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE CURRENCIES AND THE FUTURE OF THE CHINESE YUAN

Öz

The purpose of this study is to explore has the possibility of the Chinese Yuan to becoming a dominant currency among countries with reserve currencies. The study examines GDP (world share), the share of total reserves in a country’s GDP, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Only countries that possess reserve currencies were analyzed. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) prediction model was employed. According to the study results, it is estimated that Chinese Yuan meets the specified criteria and has the potential to become a strong currency in the future. Additionally, the study predicts that the United States will maintain its status as a strong reserve currency in the future but could lose its strength based on the specified criteria. Germany and the United Kingdom are expected to perform weakly according to the specified criteria.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Reserve currency
• Yuan
• Artificial Neural Networks

Kaynakça

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