ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND SERVICE, INDUSTRIAL, AND AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT: COMPREHENSIVE INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMIC EVIDENCE

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 30, 605 - 629, 30.12.2024

Yahya Algül

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2024.024

Öz

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have revived concerns about technological unemployment. Regarding the issue, this study examines the impact of AI on employment rates across 17 leading AI countries from 1998 to 2017 using two panel econometric techniques, DOLS and FMOLS, to ensure robust results. For the first time, as far as is known, the effect of AI on employment in distinct sectors is analyzed separately. By uniquely combining different countries and sectors within a macroeconomic framework, this study provides a more comprehensive understanding through a total of eight estimates. The findings indicate that, according to both DOLS and FMOLS techniques, increased AI innovation raises employment rates in the overall economy and in the service sector, while reducing employment rates in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Consequently, while AI positively impacts overall employment, considering industrial and agricultural sectors, employment policies should be adjusted to meet evolving needs in the AI era.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Artificial Intelligence, Technological Unemployment, Patent, Employment Policy

YAPAY ZEKA VE HİZMET, SANAYİ VE TARIM İSTİHDAMI: KAPSAMLI ULUSLARARASI MAKROİKTİSADİ ANALİZ

Öz

Yapay zeka (YZ) alanındaki son gelişmeler teknolojik işsizlik konusu tekrardan gündeme getirmiştir. Bununla bağlantılı olarak, bu çalışmada YZ’nin istihdam oranları üzerindeki etkisi, YZ teknolojisinde öncü olan 17 ülkenin 1998 ve 2017 yılları verileri kullanılarak ve sonuçların güvenirliliğini güçlendirilmesi adına DOLS ve FMOLS olmak üzere iki farklı teknikle analiz edilmiştir. Dahası, bilindiği kadarıyla literatürde ilk defa YZ’nin farklı sektörlerdeki etkisinin makroekonomik olarak ölçülebilmesi adına dört farklı model ve iki farklı yöntemle sekiz farklı analiz yapılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, hem DOLS hem de FMOLS tekniği için, YZ alanında inovasyon arttıkça, hem ekonominin bütünündeki, hem de sadece hizmetler sektöründeki istihdam oranları artmaktayken, sanayi ve tarım sektörlerinde istihdam oranları düşmektedir. Sonuç olarak, her ne kadar YZ’nin ekonominin bütününde pozitif bir istihdam etkisi yaratabileceği görülse de, sanayi ve tarım sektöründeki olumsuz etkileri göz önüne alınarak, istihdam politikalarının YZ çağındaki değişen ihtiyaçlara göre yeniden dizayn edilmesi tavsiye edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapay Zeka, Teknolojik İşsizlik, Patent, İstihdam Politikaları

Kaynakça

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