A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF TÜRKİYE’S CROSS-BORDER COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS ON IRAQ’S STABILITY: 2004-2023

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 31, 144 - 167, 27.06.2025

Mehmet Şahin , Ömer Faruk Kocatepe

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2025.006

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to examine the spatial impact of Türkiye's cross-border operations on Iraq, particularly focusing on their potential to destabilize the northern region using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Türkiye's operations are often criticized in both political discourse and academic literature, with the argument that they disrupt the stability of Iraq's northern provinces, which are considered to be among the most stable parts of the country. To investigate this claim, this study employs Global Moran's I* and Getis-Ord General G analyses to assess the spatial distribution of attack intensity across Iraqi provinces. The time period considered is the post-occupation era. To further delve into the dynamics of violence, the analysis will be divided into three sub-periods based on significant changes in attack patterns in general: 2004-2012, 2013-2017, and 2018-2023. Additionally, to ensure the reliability of the results, the analyses will be conducted both with and without data on Türkiye's involvement. To enhance the robustness of the findings, comparative analyses will be conducted both with and without incorporating data on Türkiye's military interventions. The results of this study will provide valuable insights into the complex relationship between cross-border operations and regional stability in the Middle East. The study concluded that Türkiye's operations did not statistically affect the spatial distribution of violence in North of Iraq.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Spatial Analysis , Operations of Türkiye , Geographical Information Systems

TÜRKİYE’NİN SINIRÖTESİ TERÖR KARŞITI OPERASYONLARININ IRAK’IN İSTİKRARINA ETKİSİNİN MEKANSAL ANALİZİ: 2004-2023

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'nin Irak'a yönelik sınır ötesi operasyonlarının, özellikle kuzey bölgesini istikrarsızlaştırma potansiyeli üzerindeki mekansal etkisini Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) kullanarak incelemektir. Türkiye'nin operasyonları, hem siyasi söylemde hem de akademik literatürde sıklıkla eleştirilmekte ve Irak'ın en istikrarlı bölgeleri olarak kabul edilen kuzey illerinin istikrarını bozduğu iddia edilmektedir. Bu iddiayı araştırmak için, çalışma, Irak illerindeki saldırı yoğunluğunun mekânsal dağılımını değerlendirmek için Global Moran's I* ve Getis-Ord Genel G analizlerini kullanmaktadır. İncelenen dönem, işgal sonrası dönemdir. Şiddet dinamiklerini daha derinlemesine incelemek için, analizler genel olarak saldırı modellerindeki önemli değişikliklere dayanarak üç alt döneme ayrılacaktır: 2004-2012, 2013-2017 ve 2018-2023. Ayrıca, sonuçların güvenilirliğini sağlamak için analizler, Türkiye'nin müdahil olduğu verilerle ve olmadan gerçekleştirilecektir. Bulguların sağlamlığını artırmak için, karşılaştırmalı analizler, Türkiye'nin askeri müdahaleleri hakkındaki veriler dâhil edilerek ve edilmeden gerçekleştirilecektir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, Ortadoğu'da sınır ötesi operasyonlar ile bölgesel istikrar arasındaki karmaşık ilişki hakkında değerli bilgiler sağlayacaktır. Araştırmada Türkiye'nin operasyonlarının Kuzey Irak'taki şiddetin mekansal dağılımını istatistiksel olarak etkilemediği sonucu ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mekânsal Analiz , Türkiye’nin Operasyonları , Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri

Kaynakça

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