AFETLERE HAZIRLIK NİYETİNİ ETKİLEYEN RİSK ALGISI ÜZERİNE ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 66, 43 - 62, 24.06.2025

Arzu Tuygun Toklu , İsmail Tamer Toklu

https://doi.org/10.17498/kdeniz.1637666

Öz

Dünyada önceden hiç olmadığı kadar pek çok insan artan şekilde deprem, sel, orman yangını, toprak kayması gibi afetlere maruz kalmaktadır. Tüm dünyada iklim değişiminin sonucu ortaya çıkan sel, yangın, kuraklık gibi afetler, tektonik olaylar neticesinde ortaya çıkan depremler önemli can ve mal kaybına neden olmaktadır. Türkiye için yaşanan deprem felaketleri, beklenen Marmara depremi ülkenin geleceğini stratejik olarak tehdit eden olaylardır. Kamuoyunun afetlerin getirdiği olumsuz sonuçlara yönelik farkındalığı yüksek olmasına rağmen, yeterli risk algısının olmaması afete hazırlık ve önleminin benimsenmemesine neden olmaktadır. Afetlerin oluşturduğu bu tehditlere karşı nasıl bütünsel bir yaklaşımla yanıt verileceği konusu önemli kararlar arasındadır. Afet riskinin olduğu bölgelerde yaşayanların risk algısının geliştirilmesi afetlere zamanında müdahale etme yeteneklerinin geliştirilmesine yardımcı olabilir. Bu çalışma ile insanların afetlere yönelik risk algılarının afetlere yönelik tutum ve hazırlık niyetine etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Araştırmanın verileri kolayda örnekleme yöntemi ile seçilen kişilere uygulanan web tabanlı anket ile elde edilmiştir. Verilerin analizinde PLS tabanlı yapısal eşitlik modellemesi kullanılmıştır. Pazarlama bakış açısı ile yapılan bu çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre, risk algısı; algılanan kırılganlık ve algılanan şiddet üzerinde etkilidir. Algılanan kırılganlık, algılanan şiddet, afete yönelik tutum ve güven afete hazırlanma niyetinde etkilidir. Buna göre her bölgenin mevcut riskine göre insanlara afete hazırlık eğitimlerinin verilmesi ve bunun sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması uygun olacaktır. Hedef kitleyi oluşturan insanlardan elde edilen bu bilgiler kamu, özel ya da sivil toplum kuruluşlarının faaliyetlerini planlamasına destek olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Afet , Risk algısı , Tutum , Hazırlanma niyeti

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ ВОСПРИЯТИЯ РИСКА НА НАМЕРЕНИЕ ГОТОВИТЬСЯ К ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНЫМ СИТУАЦИЯМ

Öz

В современном мире всё больше людей подвергается воздействию стихийных бедствий, таких как землетрясения, наводнения, лесные пожары и оползни. Бедствия, вызванные изменением климата — наводнения, пожары, засухи, а также землетрясения, обусловленные тектоническими процессами, приводят к значительным человеческим жертвам и материальному ущербу. Для Турции прошедшие землетрясения и ожидаемое землетрясение в Мраморном регионе являются стратегически важными угрозами для будущего страны. Несмотря на высокую осведомлённость общественности о негативных последствиях бедствий, недостаточный уровень восприятия риска приводит к низкой степени готовности и непринятию мер предосторожности. Вопрос о том, как разработать комплексный подход к реагированию на угрозы, вызванные бедствиями, является важной задачей для принятия решений. Повышение уровня восприятия риска у людей, проживающих в зонах риска, может способствовать развитию у них способности своевременно и эффективно реагировать. Настоящее исследование направлено на изучение влияния восприятия риска на отношение к бедствиям и намерение подготовиться к ним. Данные были собраны с помощью веб-анкеты, распространённой среди участников, отобранных методом удобной выборки. Для анализа данных использовалось структурное моделирование с использованием метода наименьших квадратов (PLS-SEM). Согласно результатам исследования, проведённого с точки зрения маркетинга, восприятие риска оказывает значительное влияние на воспринимаемую уязвимость и серьёзность. В свою очередь, воспринимаемая уязвимость и серьёзность влияют на отношение к бедствиям. Кроме того, отношение к бедствиям и уверенность в своих силах влияют на намерение подготовиться. На основе полученных результатов рекомендуется проводить обучение по подготовке к бедствиям с учётом региональных рисков и обеспечить его устойчивость. Результаты исследования могут быть полезны для планирования деятельности государственных, частных и общественных организаций.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Бедствие , Восприятие риска , Отношение , Намерение подготовиться

A STUDY ON RISK PERCEPTION AFFECTING THE INTENTION TO PREPARE FOR DISASTERS

Öz

More people around the world are increasingly exposed to disasters such as earthquakes, floods, forest fires, and landslides than ever before. Disasters resulting from climate change, such as floods, fires, and droughts, as well as earthquakes caused by tectonic activity, lead to significant loss of life and property. In Turkey, past earthquake disasters and the anticipated Marmara earthquake represent strategically critical threats to the country’s future. Despite the high public awareness of the adverse consequences of disasters, a lack of adequate risk perception results in insufficient disaster preparedness and precautionary behaviors. Developing a holistic response to the threats posed by disasters is a crucial policy issue. Enhancing the risk perception of individuals living in disaster-prone areas can contribute to improving their ability to respond effectively in a timely manner. This study investigates the impact of individuals’ risk perception on their attitudes and intentions regarding disaster preparedness. The research data were collected through a web-based survey administered to participants selected via convenience sampling. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed for data analysis. According to the findings of this study, conducted from a marketing perspective, risk perception significantly influences perceived vulnerability and perceived severity. In turn, both perceived vulnerability and perceived severity affect attitudes toward disasters. Additionally, attitudes toward disasters and perceived self-efficacy influence the intention to prepare. Based on these findings, it is advisable to provide region-specific disaster preparedness education and ensure its sustainability. The results of this study may inform the planning of activities by relevant public, private, and non-governmental organizations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Disaster , Risk perception , Attitude , Preparedness intention

Kaynakça

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