Estimation of Demand for Urban Land Uses: A Case Study of Türkiye

Öz

Land use change can have adverse impact on society and environment and therefore this puts enormous pressure on governments. Accurate estimates of future urban expansion are essential for sustainable growth and the preservation of the environment. This article examines the land use changes for urban uses, and further applies different methods for the projection of residential and industrial/commercial land uses in the selected case study area i.e. NUTS3 (nomenclature of terrestrial units for statistics) regions of Turkey. Density measures, trend extrapolation and regression analysis are the subject statistical methods used for projecting the land use. The findings show that using the chosen methodologies to project past changes leads in significant uncertainty. The results are significantly influenced by the variation in selected variables, and spatial organization of the study region. Therefore, validation analysis as a future research focus will be essential to select the most appropriate model that can be used to project the land use changes in Turkey. The results from the current analysis can be adopted by the government and local authorities for the land management and sustainable growth of urban land use in the Turkish regional context.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Urban land
• Land use demand
• Land use projection
• Statistical methods
• Turkey

Kentsel Arazi Kullanım Talebinin Tahmini: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Öz

Arazi kullanım değişikliğinin toplum ve çevre üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olabilir ve bu nedenle bu, hükümetler üzerinde çok büyük bir baskı oluşturur. Gelecekteki kentsel genişlemenin doğru tahminleri, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve çevrenin korunması için gereklidir. Bu makale, kentsel kullanımlar için arazi kullanımı değişikliklerini incelemekte ve ayrıca seçilen örnek çalışma alanında, yani Türkiye'nin NUTS3 (istatistik için karasal birimlerin terminolojisi) bölgelerinde konut ve endüstriyel/ticari arazi kullanımlarının projeksiyonu için farklı yöntemler uygulamaktadır. Yoğunluk ölçümleri, trend ekstrapolasyonu ve regresyon analizi, arazi kullanımını tahmin etmek için kullanılan söz konusu istatistiksel yöntemlerdir. Bulgular, geçmiş değişiklikleri yansıtmak için seçilen metodolojileri kullanmanın önemli bir belirsizliğe yol açtığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, seçilen değişkenlerdeki varyasyondan ve çalışma bölgesinin mekansal organizasyonundan önemli ölçüde etkilenir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye'deki arazi kullanımı değişikliklerini tahmin etmek için kullanılabilecek en uygun modeli seçmek için gelecekteki bir araştırma odağı olarak doğrulama analizi temel olacaktır. Mevcut analizin sonuçları, Türkiye bölgesel bağlamında arazi yönetimi ve kentsel arazi kullanımının sürdürülebilir büyümesi için hükümet ve yerel makamlar tarafından benimsenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kentsel Arazi
• Arazi Kullanım Talebi
• Arazi Kullanım Projeksiyonu
• İstatistiksel Yöntemler
• Türkiye

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