Davranışsal Finans Perspektifinde Halka Arzlarda Yatırımcı Duyarlılığı: Yatırımcı Kararlarının Analizine Yönelik Bir Uygulama

Öz

Halka arz sonrası gözlemlenen düşük fiyatlandırma ve uzun vadede ortalama altı getiri olguları, geleneksel finans yaklaşımlarının öngörüleriyle çelişmektedir. Bu çalışmada, davranışsal finans perspektifiyle yatırımcı duyarlılığının halka arz performansı üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. 2010-2024 döneminde Türkiye’de gerçekleştirilen 292 halka arz verisi kullanılarak, günlük, aylık ve yıllık bazda fiyat ve talep dinamikleri analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, yüksek duyarlılık dönemlerinde ilk gün getirilerinin belirgin biçimde arttığını; buna karşın uzun vadede halka arz hisselerinin ortalama performansının zayıfladığını göstermektedir. Kısa vadeli fiyat anomalisi, aşırı iyimser yatırımcıların yoğun talebi ve “sürü davranışı” etkisiyle açıklanmaktadır. Ancak piyasa likiditesinin bol olduğu veya yatırımcı tabanının hızla genişlediği dönemlerde, bu olumsuz etkinin gecikmeli olarak ortaya çıkabildiği gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca yatırımcı duyarlılığı; yalnızca fiyat düzeyini değil, halka arzlara katılımı ve işlem hacmini de anlamlı şekilde etkilemektedir. Çalışma, yatırımcı duyarlılığının hem piyasa zamanlaması hem de uzun vadeli değer yaratma açısından önemini vurgularken; düzenleyiciler ve şirket yöneticileri için de irrasyonel coşkunun oluşturabileceği risklere dikkat çekmektedir. Gelecekte, farklı ülkelerle karşılaştırmalı analizler ve sosyal medya duyarlılığı gibi yeni veri kaynaklarının dahil edilmesiyle konunun daha kapsamlı incelenmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Algı ve Davranış
• Davranışsal Finans
• Düşük Fiyatlandırma
• Halka Arz
• Halka Arz Performansı
• Yatırımcı Duyarlılığı.

Investor Sentiment in Public Offerings in The Perspective of Behavioral Finance: An Application for Analysing Investor Decisions

Öz

The anomalies observed after Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)—notably underpricing on the first trading day and subsequent underperformance—contradict conventional finance theories. This study adopts a behavioral finance perspective to investigate the impact of investor sentiment on IPO performance in Turkey between 2010 and 2024, covering 292 IPOs. Using daily, monthly, and yearly data, the analysis reveals that IPOs launched during high-sentiment periods tend to experience significantly higher first-day returns but often weaker long-term performance. Short-term price anomalies appear driven by excessive optimism and “herding,” leading to large initial demand. However, in periods of abundant liquidity and rapid expansion of the investor base, these negative effects may be delayed. Investor sentiment also significantly influences participation levels and trading volumes, indicating its broader role in shaping both pricing and demand dynamics. This research highlights the importance of investor sentiment for market timing and long-term value. It also underscores potential risks when irrational exuberance inflates stock prices, stressing vigilance for policymakers and managers aiming to avoid post-IPO disappointments. Future studies could broaden the scope by including cross-country comparisons or novel data sources—such as social media sentiment—thereby providing deeper insights into behavioral biases influencing IPO outcomes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• IPO
• Behavioral Finance
• Investor Sentiment
• Underpricing
• IPO Performance

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