Arktik’te Büyük Güç Rekabeti ve Rusya’nın Stratejik Konumlanışı

Öz

Bu çalışma, Arktik’te yoğunlaşan büyük güç rekabetini ve Rusya’nın bu güç rekabetine paralel olarak şekillenen/değişen küresel konjonktürde kendisini nasıl konumlandırdığını analiz etmektedir. Literatürde Arktik’e ilişkin çalışmalar genellikle tek bir aktörün bölgesel politikasını ele alırken, bu çalışma Arktik’i değişen jeopolitik atmosferde yaşanan dönüşüm, buzulların günden güne hızla erimesi ve buna bağlı olarak oluşan yeni ekonomik, lojistik ve askeri koşullar çerçevesinde çok boyutlu, çok aktörlü bir rekabet alanı olarak analiz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda Arktik’in neden jeopolitik, jeoekonomik ve stratejik olarak önem kazandığı, büyük güç rekabetinin bölgede ne anlama geldiği, ABD, Çin ve Rusya’nın Arktik ile ilgili stratejileri ve politikalarının nasıl farklılaştığı incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın temel argümanı, Rusya’nın Arktik’i doğal kaynaklar ve deniz ticaret yolları açısından önemli görmekle beraber, ulusal güvenlik, askeri caydırıcılık ve büyük güç statüsünün sürdürülmesi bakımından da kritik bir alan olarak değerlendirdiğidir. Bu nedenle Moskova, bölgedeki rekabetin farklı alanlarına nüfuz ederek ve ekonomik, askeri, diplomatik araçları eşzamanlı kullanarak Arktik’teki nüfuzunu korumaya ve gücünü tahkim etmeye çalışmaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışma, Rusya’nın ABD ile tırmanan güvenlik rekabeti ile Çin’le gelişen fakat sınırları olan iş birliği arasında kendi çıkarlarını önceleyen, temkinli bir strateji izlediğini ileri sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arktik
• büyük güç rekabeti
• Rusya
• ABD
• Çin
• jeopolitik
• Kuzey Deniz Rotası
• Arktik güvenliği

Great Power Rivalry in the Arctic and Russia’s Strategic Positioning

Öz

This study analyzes the intensifying great power competition in the Arctic and how Russia positions itself within the changing global conjuncture shaped in parallel with this competition. While the existing literature on the Arctic generally focuses on the regional policy of a single actor, this study examines the Arctic as a multidimensional, multi-actor arena of competition within the framework of the transformation taking place in the changing geopolitical atmosphere, the rapid melting of the ice on a daily basis, and the new economic, logistical, and military conditions that emerge accordingly. In this context, the study explores why the Arctic has gained geopolitical, geoeconomic, and strategic importance, what great power competition means in the region, and how the Arctic-related strategies and policies of the United States, China, and Russia differ from one another. The main argument of the study is that, although Russia views the Arctic as important in terms of natural resources and maritime trade routes, it also considers the region a critical area for national security, military deterrence, and the preservation of great power status. For this reason, Moscow seeks to preserve its influence and consolidate its power in the Arctic by penetrating different dimensions of competition in the region and by simultaneously employing economic, military, and diplomatic instruments. In this framework, the study argues that Russia follows a cautious strategy that prioritizes its own interests between its escalating security competition with the United States and its developing but limited cooperation with China.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The Arctic
• great power rivalry
• Russia
• the US
• China
• geopolitics
• the Northern Sea Route
• Arctic security

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