İklim Değişikliği ve Çatışma

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 16 Sayı: Türkiye Cumhuriyetinin 100. Yılı Özel Sayısı | Special Issue for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye, 149 - 174, 29.10.2023

Yunus Düger , Murat Yaman

https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1347358

Öz

Dünya tarihine bakıldığında pek çok ülke farklı sebeplerden dolayı savaşlar, çatışmalar, isyanlar ve toplumsal gerilimler yaşamış ve yaşamaya da devam etmektedir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin 100. yılına ulaşana kadar pek çok badirelerden geçtiği biliniyor. Cumhuriyetin ilanından günümüze kadar terör ve iç çatışma tehdidi hem bugün hem de gelecek yüzyıllarda Türkiye'nin istikrarı açısından sürekli gündemde olmaktadır. Türkiye, cumhuriyet tarihi boyunca hem devlet hem de insan güvenliği açısından pek çok riskle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Önümüzdeki yüzyıllarda Türkiye'nin insani güvenliğini tehdit etme potansiyeline sahip bir diğer olgu ise iklim değişikliğidir.
İklim değişikliği artık sadece çevresel değil, aynı zamanda önemli sosyal ve siyasal sorunlara da neden olma potansiyeline sahip bir olgu haline dönüşmüştür. Bu nedenle, iklim değişikliği basit bir çevre bozulması olarak değil hem ulusal hem de uluslararası düzeyde farklı çatışma türlerini tetikleyebilecek bir “güvenlik” sorunu, yani “insani” bir sorun olarak değerlendirmek gerekiyor. Nitekim iklim değişikliği ve çatışma arasındaki ilişki, son yıllarda hem akademik literatürde hem de politik alanda ilgi görmeye başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, konu ile ilgili birçok nicel ve nitel çalışmalar incelenmiş ve iklim değişikliği, insan güvenliği ve çatışma kavramları arasındaki bağlantılar ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim değişikliğinin birçok farklı türden çatışmaya yol açabilecek bir insani güvenlik sorunu olarak görülmesini sağlamaktır. İklim değişikliğinin insan güvenliğine yönelik gelecekteki tehditlerin anlaşılması ve bunlarla mücadele etme yeteneğini geliştirmek gerektiğinin önemine vurgu yapmaktır. İklim değişikliği her ne kadar, çatışmalar veya şiddet için gerekli bir önkoşul olmasa da hem bireylerin hem de devletlerin, insan yaşamı için hayati önem taşıyan kaynaklara doğrudan veya dolaylı erişimini ortadan kaldırmakta veya sınırlandırmaktadır. Bu durum, bazı ülkelerde farklı türlerden çatışma, şiddet ve iç savaş riskini arttırdığı görülmektedir. Çalışmada da vurgulandığı gibi iklim değişikliğinin etkileri, özellikle düşük gelirli ülkelerde farklı türden çatışma ve iç savaşlara, gelişmiş ülkelerde ise terör eylemleri gibi güvenlik sorunlarına neden olma potansiyeline sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Bu nedenle iklim değişikliğinin uzun vadede bireysel, sosyal ve politik sonuçlarını anlamak için gerek bireylerin gerekse kamu kurumlarının veya sivil toplum kuruluşlarının ciddi bir çaba göstermesi gerekliliği ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliği ile çatışma arasındaki ilişki genel olarak ortaya konduktan sonra, ikinci yüzyılda Türkiye'yi bekleyen tehditler ve çözüm önerileri kısmında, çatışma bağlamında Türkiye'yi bekleyen olası riskler ve çözümler ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çevre, İklim değişikliği, Çatışma, İklim Değişikliği ve Göç, İnsani Güvenlik

Climate Change and Conflict

Öz

Looking at world history, many countries have experienced and continue to experience wars, conflicts, rebellions and social tensions for different reasons. It is known that the Republic of Turkey went through many difficulties until it 100th anniversary. From the proclamation of the Republic to the present day, the threat of terrorism and çivil conflict has always been on the agenda for Turkey’s stability both today and in the coming centuries. Throughout the history of the republic. Turkey has faced many risks in terms of both state and human security. Another phenomenon that has the potential to threaten Turkey’s human security in the coming centuries is climate change.
Climate change has now become a phenomenon that has the potential to cause not only environmental but also important social and political problems. For this reason, climate change should not be considered as a simple environmental degradation, but as a “security issue, that is, a “human” problem that can trigger different types of conflicts at both national and international levels. As a matter of fact, the relationship between climate change and conflict has been discussed both in academic literature and in recent years. In this study, many quantitative and qualitative studies on the subject were examined and the connections between the concepts of climate change, human security and conflict were tried to be revealed.
The aim of this study is to ensure that climate change is seen as a human security issue that can lead to many kinds of conflicts. It is to emphasize the importance of understanding the future threats to human security of climate change and improving the ability to combat them. Although climate change is not a necessary precondition for conflict or violence, it eliminates or limits the direct or indirect access of both individual and states to resources vital to human life. This appears to increase the risk of conflict of different kinds, violence and civil war in some countries. As emphasized in the study, the effects of climate change seem to have the potential to cause different kinds of conflicts and civil wars, especially in low-income countries, and security problems such as terrorist acts in developed countries. Therefore, to understand the individual, social and political consequences of climate change in the long term, it is necessary for individuals, public institutions or non-governmental organizations to make a serious effort. In this study , after revealing the relationship between climate change and conflict in general, the possible risks and solutions awaiting Turkey in the context of conflict are tried to be put forward in the section on threats awaiting Turkey in the second century and solution proposals.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Environment, Climate Change, Conflict, Climate Change and Migration, Human Security

Kaynakça

• Adano, W. R., Dietz, T., Witsenburg, K., Zaal, F. (2012). Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya’s drylands. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 65–80. doi:10.1177/0022343311427344
• Ağaçayak, T., Keyman, F. (2018). Water and Food Security in Turkey in a Changing Climate. IPC Policy Brief, March 2018.http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/wp-content/- uploads/2018/03/WaterAndFoodSecurity_PolicyBrief_web.pdf.
• Anderson, C. A., Anderson, K. B. (1998). Temperature and aggression: Paradox, controversy, and a (Fairly) clear picture. In R. Geen & E. Donnerstein (Eds.), Human aggression: Theories, research and implications for social policy (pp. 247-298). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
• Anderson, C. A., Bushman, B. J. (2002). Human Aggression. Annual Review of Psychology, 53(1), 27–51. doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.53.1009
• Barnett, J. (2003). Security and climate change. Global Environmental Change, 13(1), 7–17. doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00080-8
• Barnett, J., Adger, W. N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639–655. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003.
• Baysan, C., Burke, M., González, F., Hsiang, S., Miguel, E. (2019). Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.021
• Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Koubi, V. (2012). Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1), 015601. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015601
• Besley, T., Torsten, P. (2011). The logic of political violence. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(3): 1411–1445.
• Blondel, A. (2012). Climate Change Fuelling Resource-Based Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific. Asia-Pacific Human Development Report Background Papers Series 2012/12. https://www.uncclearn.org/wp-content/uploads/library/undp304.pdf
• Brown, O., Hammıll, A., Mcleman, R. (2007). Climate change as the “new” security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs, 83(6). 1141–1154. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2007.00678.x
• Brzoska, M., Fröhlich, C. (2015). Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migration and Development, 5(2), doi:10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973
• Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N.P., Theisen, O. M., (2008). Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. Social Development The World Bank. https://www.hbuhaug.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/SDCCWorkingPaper_Conflict.pdf.
• Buhaug, H., Uexkull, N.V., “Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change”. (2021). Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 46, Pp. 545-568. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3953083 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708
• Buhaug, Halvard (2022). Armed conflict and climate change: How these two threats play out in Africa, The Conversation. https://www.prio.org/publications/13217
• Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., Lobell, D. B. (2009). Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(49), 20670–20674. doi:10.1073/pnas.0907998106
• Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., Miguel, E. (2015). Climate and Conflict. Annual Review of Economics, 7(1), 577–617. doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430.
• Brückner M., Ciccone A. (2010). International commodity prices, growth, and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa Econ. J. 120. Pp. 519–534.
• Cohn, E. G., Rotton, J. (2005). The curve is still out there: A reply to Bushman, Wang, and Anderson’s (2005) “Is the curve relating temperature to aggression linear or curvilinear?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 89(1), 67–70. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.89.1.67
• Chivers, C.J. (2012). In the Syrian fight, rebels’ prospects can change with the weather.New York Times. (http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/in-the-syrianfight-rebels-prospects-can-change-with-the-weather/).
• De Soysa, I., (2001). Paradise is a bazaar? Greed, creed, grievance and governance. World Institute for Development Economics Research discussion paper 2001/42.
• Delaney, D. (2013). Orıgıns of vıolence and strategıes for change. https://pathssk.org/.
• Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D. (Eds.). (n.d.). Human Security. Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, P.p. 755–792. doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415379.017
• Floyd, R. (2008). The Environmental Security Debate and its Significance for Climate Change. The International Spectator, 43(3), 51–65. doi:10.1080/03932720802280602
• Fry, T. (2019). Unstaging War, Confronting Conflict and Peace. ISBN 978-3-030-24720-1 (eBook) doi:10.1007/978-3-030-24720-1
• Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 331–340. doi:10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1
• Ghimire, R., Ferreira, S. (2015). Floods and armed conflict. Environment and Development Economics, 21(01), 23–52. doi:10.1017/s1355770x15000157.
• GTZ (Alman Teknik İşbirliği Topluluğu) (2008). Climate Change and Security Challenges for German Development Cooperation. (Editors: Reinhold Elges, Uwe Kievelitz, Gabriele Kruk, Lorenz Petersen, Michael Siebert). https://www.preventionweb.net/files/8023_enclimatesecurity1.pdf
• Hendrix, C. S., Salehyan, I. (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 35–50. doi:10.1177/0022343311426165.
• Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C., Cane, M. A. (2011). Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476(7361), 438–441. doi:10.1038/nature10311
• Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., Miguel, E. (2013). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science, 341(6151), 1235367–1235367. doi:10.1126/science.1235367
• Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1991). On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict. International Security, 16(2), 76. doi:10.2307/2539061
• Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1994). Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security, 19(1), 5. doi:10.2307/2539147
• Ide, T., Michael Link, P., Scheffran, J., & Schilling, J. (2016). The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies. Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace, 285–304. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_12
• Koubi, V., Böhmelt, T., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L. (2018). The Determinants of Environmental Migrants’ Conflict Perception. International Organization, Vol. 72, No. 4 (FALL 2018), Pp. 905-936 doi:10.1017/s0020818318000231
• Koubi, V. (2019). Climate Change and Conflict. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1). doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830.
• Lee, J R (2009) Climate change and armed conflict: Hot and cold wars. London: Routledge.
• Mahendran, R., Xu, R., Li, S., & Guo, Y. (2021). Interpersonal violence associated with hot weather. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(9), e571–e572. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00210-2
• Mares, D. (2013). Climate Change and Levels of Violence in Socially Disadvantaged Neighborhood Groups. Journal of Urban Health, 90(4), 768–783. doi:10.1007/s11524-013-9791-1
• Mares, D. M., Moffett, K. W. (2015). Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities. Climatic Change, 135(2), 297–310. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0
• Matthew, R. A., Gaulin, T., McDonald, B. (2003). The Elusive Quest: Linking Environmental Change and Conflict. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique, 36(04). doi:10.1017/s000842390377889
• Meierding, E. (2013). Climate Change and Conflict: Avoiding Small Talk about the Weather. International Studies Review, 15(2), 185–203. doi:10.1111/misr.12030.
• Messer, E. (2010). Climate change and violent conflict. Oxfam American. http://oxfam-us.s3.amazonaws.com/static/oa3/files/climate-change-and-violent-conflict.pdf
• Nel, P., Righarts, M. (2008). Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52(1), 159–185. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00495.x
• Popovski, V. (2017). Foreseight Africa viewpoint: Does climate change cause conflict? https://www.brookings.edu/articles/does-climate-change-cause-conflict/ (Erişim tarihi: 05.06.2023).
• Powers, J.C (2011). Climate Change and the Turkana and Merille Conflict. ICE Case studies No. 238. http://mandalaprojects.com/ice/ice-cases/turkana-merille.htm
• Prudkov, P. N., & Rodina, O. N. (2019). Cold temperatures, stress, and violence. Heliyon, 5(5), e01619. doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01619
• Raleigh, C., Urdal, H. (2007). Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 674–694. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.005
• Raleigh, C. (2010). “Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States.” International Studies Review 12 (1): 69-86.
• Reuveny, R. (2007a). Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656–673. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.05.001
• Reuveny, R. (2007b). Ecomigration and Violent Conflict: Case Studies and Public Policy Implications. Human Ecology, 36(1), 1–13. doi:10.1007/s10745-007-9142-5
• Roble, M.A., (2011). Somalia’s famine contributes to popular revolt against al-Shabaab militants. Terror. Monit. 9 (32), 3–4. https://jamestown.org/program/somalias-famine-contributes-to-popular-revolt-against-al-shabaab-militants/
• Salehyan, I. (2008). From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet. Journal of Peace Research, 45(3), 315–326. doi:10.1177/0022343308088812
• Salehyan, I., Hendrix, C. S. (2014). Climate shocks and political violence. Global Environmental Change, 28, 239–250. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.0.
• Schaar, J. (2018). The relationship between climate change and violent conflict. https://cdn.sida.se/app/uploads/2020/12/01105650/working-paper-climate-change-and-conflict.pdf.
• Scheffran, J., Link, P.M., Schilling, J. (2009). Theories and Models of the Climate-Security Link. (Working Paper, CLISEC-3).
• Scheffran, J., Battaglini, A. (2010). Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming. Regional Environmental Change, 11(S1), 27–39. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0175-8
• Scheffran, J. (2011). Security Risks of Climate Change: Vulnerabilities, Threats, Conflicts and Strategies. Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security, 735–756. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-17776-7_42
• Scheffran, J., Link, P. M., Schilling, J. (2012). Theories and Models of Climate-Security Interaction: Framework and Application to a Climate Hot Spot in North Africa. Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict, 91–131. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-28626-1_5.
• Scheffran, J., Link, P. M., Schilling, J. (2019). Climate and conflict in Africa. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/ 9780190228620.013.557.
• Slettebak, R. T. (2012). Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 163–176. doi:10.1177/0022343311425693
• Smith, D., Vivekananda, J., (2007). A climate of conflict, The Links Between Climate Change, Peace And War. https://www.international-alert.org/publications/climate-conflict/.
• Sova, C. (2017). The First Climate Change Conflict. https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/the-first-climate-change-conflict/.
• Suleiman, M.B., Kasimu, S. (2022). “Effects of Climate Change Induced Farmer-Herder Conflicts on Socio-Economic Development of Farmers in Giwa Local Government Area, Kaduna State, Nigeria”. Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences (DUJOPAS), Vol. 8 No. 4a. P.p. 129-138.
• Theisen, O M., Holtermann, H., Buhaug, H. (2011). Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim that Drought Breeds Conflict. International Security 36 (1):79–106.
• Theisen, O M., Holtermann, H., Buhaug, H. (2012) Drought, political exclusion, and civil war Int. Security at press. https://www.hbuhaug.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/IS-2011-for-web.pdf
• Theisen, O. M., Gleditsch, N. P., Buhaug, H. (2013). Is climate change a driver of armed conflict? Climatic Change, 117(3), 613–625. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0649-4
• UNDP (United Nations Development Program), 1994. Human Development Report 1994. Oxford University Press, New York.
• Work, C. (2018). Climate change and conflict: Global insecurity and the road less traveled. Geoforum. doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.11.00