Dynamics of Environmental Sustainability in the Context of Sustainable Human Development and the City: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Binary Choice Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 17 Sayı: Sürdürülebilir İnsani Kalkınma ve Kent, 195 - 219, 27.10.2024

Tuğçe Acar Kara

https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1503492

Öz

In recent years, urbanization, infrastructure development, industrial processes and climate change have significant impacts on environmental degradation. It is essential to identify policies and general trends to be implemented in line with the possible negative effects of these reflections. The policies and trends identified also provide important information for urban planning and human development. On the other hand, the work in this field is pioneering in raising a high level of environmental awareness and access to information on urban sustainability and sustainable human development, in order to protect both natural resources and the global ecosystem, and to promote health and well-being. Thus, variables have been identified in the STIRPAT approach (The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology), which is a suitable econometric model for understanding the impact of different factors on environmental sustainability. The aim is to explore the relationship between population, technology and income as continuous variables and the region variable as a dummy variable, the income level of countries and the Kyoto variable and the Ecological Footprint. For this aim, the analysis focuses on the estimation of a semiparametric panel binary choice model, which allows the determination of the functional form that the data set actually has through the probability density function, avoiding the hypothetical limitations of the parametric approach. The semiparametric panel binary choice model a global analysis was estimated with 2565 observations for 135 countries with a global scale data set covering the period 2000-2018. In line with the results, the need to improve waste management strategies and climate-friendly activities such as recycling, the productive nature of the economy, including efficient technology and resource allocation, are highlighted, and the results provide guidance to reduce the uncertainty surrounding current decision-making on sustainable urban redevelopment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Environmental Sustainability, Ecological Footprint, Sustainable Human Development, Panel Binary Choice Model, Semiparametric Approach

Sürdürülebilir İnsani Kalkınma ve Kent Bağlamında Çevresel Sürdürülebilirliğin Dinamikleri: Semiparametrik Panel İkili Nitel Tercih Modelinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Son yıllarda kentleşme, altyapı gelişimi, endüstriyel süreçler ve iklim değişikliğinin çevresel bozulmaya önemli boyutta yansımaları bulunmaktadır. Bu yansımaların olası olumsuz etkileri doğrultusunda uygulanacak politikaları ve genel eğilimleri belirlemek oldukça önemlidir. Belirlenen uygun politika ve eğilimler kentsel planlamaya ve insani kalkınmaya yönelik de önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Öte yandan alandaki çalışmalar sağlık ve refahı desteklemek adına gerek doğal kaynakları gerekse küresel ekosistemi korumak için yüksek düzeyde çevresel farkındalık yaratmak ve kentsel sürdürülebilirlik ve sürdürülebilir insani kalkınma hakkında bilgiye erişimi sağlamak konusunda öncü niteliğe sahiptir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerinde çeşitli faktörlerin etkisini anlamak için uygun bir ekonometrik model olan STIRPAT (The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) yaklaşımında değişkenler belirlenmiştir. Sürekli değişken olarak nüfus, teknoloji ve refah temsili değişkenlerin yanında Kyoto değişkeni, bölgesel ve gelir düzeyinde inceleme için eklenen kukla değişkenler ile ekolojik ayak izi ilişkisini keşfetmek amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla analizde parametrik yaklaşımın varsayımsal sınırlamalardan kaçınılarak, olasılık yoğunluk fonksiyonu vasıtası ile veri setinin gerçekte sahip olduğu fonksiyonel formun belirlenmesine imkan tanıyan semiparametrik panel ikili nitel tercih modeli tahmininin gerçekleştirilmesine odaklanılmıştır. 2000-2018 yıllarını kapsayan 2565 gözlemlik veri seti ile küresel ölçekte 135 ülke için inceleme gerçekleştirilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları doğrultusunda, atık yönetim stratejilerinin ve geri dönüşüm gibi iklim dostu faaliyetlerin geliştirilmesi gerekliliğine, verimli teknoloji ve kaynak tahsisi içeren ekonominin üretken yapısına vurgu yapılmış, bulguların sürdürülebilir kentsel yeniden gelişim konusunda mevcut karar verme sürecini çevreleyen belirsizliği azaltmak için yol gösterici olduğu belirtilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çevresel Sürdürülebilirlik, Ekolojik Ayak İzi, Sürdürülebilir İnsani Kalkınma, Panel İkili Nitel Tercih Modeli, Semiparametrik Yaklaşım

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