Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks

Aysel Topşir; Ferdi Güler

doi:10.31466/kfbd.1570632

TR EN

Türkiye'de Tütün Piyasasının Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki tütün politikalarının gelecekteki dinamiklerini yapay sinir ağları kullanarak öngörmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 1961–2022 yılları arasındaki tütün üretimi, hasat alanı ve verim verileri, bu değişkenler arasındaki karmaşık ilişkileri anlamak amacıyla kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, 2023 ile 2027 yılları arasında tütün üretimi ve hasat alanının kademeli olarak azalmasının beklendiğini, buna karşılık verimin önemli ölçüde artacağını göstermektedir. Bu eğilim, teknolojik gelişmelerin ve etkili tarım politikalarının olumlu etkilerini yansıtmaktadır. Zaman serisi tahminleri derin dendritik yapay sinir ağları (DeepDenT) yazılımı kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu tahminler, tütün tarımının sürdürülebilirliği ve stratejik planlaması açısından değerli bilgiler sunmaktadır. Tahminlerin yanı sıra, çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri değerlendirmek amacıyla doğrusal Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ancak, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik bulunamamıştır; bu durum, tütün üretiminin karmaşık ve doğrusal olmayan dinamiklerden etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Bu da geleneksel doğrusal modellerin üretim sürecinin gerçek doğasını yeterince yansıtamayabileceğini ima etmektedir. Genel olarak, bu çalışma tütün tarımındaki uzun vadeli eğilimlere dair kritik bulgular sunmakta ve politika geliştirme süreçlerine katkı sağlamaktadır. Üreticilerin bilinçli ve stratejik kararlar almalarına destek olmakta ve sektörün sürdürülebilirliği ile ekonomik istikrarına ilişkin anlayışı derinleştirmektedir. Böylece, veri temelli yaklaşımlar ve ileri düzey modelleme teknikleriyle üretim süreçlerinin optimize edilmesine yönelik yeni bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Öngörü, Tütün Analizi, Yapay Sinir Ağları

Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks

Öz

This study aims to forecast the future dynamics of tobacco policies in Türkiye using artificial neural networks. Tobacco production, area harvested, and yield data from 1961 to 2022 were comprehensively analyzed to understand the complex relationships among these variables. The results indicate that, while tobacco production and harvested area are expected to decline gradually between 2023 and 2027, yield will significantly increase. This trend reflects the positive impact of technological advancements and effective agricultural policies. Time series forecasting was conducted using DeepDenT software. These forecasts provide valuable insights for the sustainability and strategic planning of tobacco farming. In addition to forecasting, the study applied the linear Granger causality test to assess relationships between the variables. However, no statistically significant causality was found, suggesting that tobacco production is influenced by complex, non-linear dynamics. This implies that conventional linear models may be insufficient to capture the true nature of the production process. Overall, the study offers critical insights into long-term trends in tobacco agriculture and contributes to policy development. It supports producers in making informed, strategic decisions and enhances understanding of the sector’s sustainability and economic stability. Thus, the study offers a new perspective on optimizing production through data-driven approaches and advanced modeling.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forecasting, Analyzing Tobacco, Artificial Neural Networks

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Üretim ve Endüstri Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Aysel Topşir ^*
0000-0002-1494-6281
Türkiye

Ferdi Güler
0009-0008-0425-8101
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

15 Haziran 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

20 Ekim 2024

Kabul Tarihi

16 Mayıs 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1570632

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA32SF58PK

APA

Topşir, A., & Güler, F. (2025). Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 15(2), 688-701. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1570632

AMA

1.Topşir A, Güler F. Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks. KFBD. 2025;15(2):688-701. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1570632

Chicago

Topşir, Aysel, ve Ferdi Güler. 2025. “Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15 (2): 688-701. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1570632.

EndNote

Topşir A, Güler F (01 Haziran 2025) Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15 2 688–701.

IEEE

[1]A. Topşir ve F. Güler, “Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks”, KFBD, c. 15, sy 2, ss. 688–701, Haz. 2025, doi: 10.31466/kfbd.1570632.

ISNAD

Topşir, Aysel - Güler, Ferdi. “Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 15/2 (01 Haziran 2025): 688-701. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1570632.

JAMA

1.Topşir A, Güler F. Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks. KFBD. 2025;15:688–701.

MLA

Topşir, Aysel, ve Ferdi Güler. “Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 15, sy 2, Haziran 2025, ss. 688-01, doi:10.31466/kfbd.1570632.

Vancouver

1.Aysel Topşir, Ferdi Güler. Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks. KFBD. 01 Haziran 2025;15(2):688-701. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1570632

Cited By

Forecasting Hazelnut Market in Türkiye Using DeepDenT: A Deep Learning-Based Approach

Ordu Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.54370/ordubtd.1710819

Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisinde yayınlanan makaleler Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International kapsamında lisanslanmıştır.

Türkiye'de Tütün Piyasasının Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forecasting the Tobacco Market in Türkiye with Artificial Neural Networks

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

Cited By

Forecasting Hazelnut Market in Türkiye Using DeepDenT: A Deep Learning-Based Approach