Türkiye’de Yabancılara Konut Satışının Mars Yöntemi ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 498 - 518, 15.03.2025

Ufuk Akyol , Murat Gül

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1608248

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisinin itici güçlerinden biri olan inşaat sektöründe, 2012 yılında yapılan yasal düzenlemelerle yabancılara konut satışı mümkün hale gelmiştir. Bu satışlar, ülkeye önemli bir döviz girdisi sağlamakta ve inşaat sektörünün canlı kalmasına katkıda bulunmaktadır. Yabancılara konut satışlarını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve bu satışların tahmin edilmesi, hem sektör hem de ülke ekonomisi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de yabancılara yapılan konut satışlarını, ekonomik ve sektörel değişkenler kullanarak MARS (Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Uzanımları) yöntemiyle tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, MARS modelinin yüksek açıklayıcılık gücüne sahip olduğunu (Adjusted R-squared: 0.9736) ve gerçek değerler ile tahmin edilen değerler arasındaki Pearson korelasyon katsayısının 0.9906 olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, MARS modeli, geleneksel çok değişkenli regresyon modeline kıyasla tahmin performansını (MSE) %95 oranında iyileştirmiştir. Bu sonuç, modelin yabancılara konut satışlarını oldukça başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edebildiğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, MARS yönteminin karmaşık ilişkileri modellemede etkili bir araç olduğunu ve yabancılara konut satışının tahmini için uygun bir yöntem olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Sonuç olarak elde edilen bilgiler, karar alıcılar ile sektör paydaşları açısından önemli veriler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yabancılara Konut Satışı, MARS, Çok Değişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Uzanımları

Etik Beyan

Yapılan çalışmada araştırma ve yayın etiğine uyulmuştur.

Predicting of House Sales to Foreigners with Mars Method in Türkiye

Öz

In the construction sector, which is one of the driving forces of the Turkish economy, it has become possible to sell housing to foreigners with the legal regulations made in 2012. These sales provide a significant foreign currency inflow to the country and contribute to the vitality of the construction sector. Determining the factors affecting housing sales to foreigners and estimating these sales is very important for both the sector and the country's economy. This study aims to estimate housing sales to foreigners in Turkey by MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Extensions) method using economic and sectoral variables. The results of the study show that the MARS model has a high explanatory power (Adjusted R-squared: 0.9736) and that the Pearson correlation coefficient between the actual values and the predicted values is 0.9906. Furthermore, the MARS model improved predictive performance (MSE) by 95% compared to the traditional multivariate regression model. This result shows that the model can predict housing sales to foreigners quite successfully. The study revealed that the MARS method is an effective tool in modeling complex relationships and is a suitable method for estimating housing sales to foreigners. As a result, the information obtained provides important data for decision makers and sector stakeholders.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Housing Sales to Foreigners, MARS, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline

Kaynakça

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