Deniz Taşımacılığında Sıfır Emisyona Giden Yol: Gemi Sahiplerinin Zorluklarına Çok Kriterli Bir Bakış Açısı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 550 - 559, 15.03.2025

İshak Altınpınar

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1613824

Öz

Uluslararası Denizcilik Örgütü (IMO), deniz taşımacılığından kaynaklanan emisyonları 2050 yılına kadar sıfıra indirmek amacıyla bazı çalışmalar başlatmış ve bunu bir politika olarak benimsemiştir. Ancak, bu politikanın uygulanabilirliği konusunda tartışmalar devam etmektedir. Yakın gelecek, orta vadeli ve 2050 hedeflerine bakıldığında, gemi sahipleri, denizciler, taraf devletler ve birçok paydaş zorlu bir süreçle karşı karşıya kalacaktır. Bu çalışmada, 2050 hedefleri kapsamında gemi sahiplerini bekleyen zorluklar, çok kriterli bir karar verme yöntemi (MCDM) olan Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) ile değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, finansal sorunların (%33,6) kritik bir zorluk olduğunu ve yeniliklerin önemli bir ekonomik yük getireceğini göstermiştir. Operasyonel sorunlar (%19,2) ve yeni yakıtlara erişim (%18,9), operasyonlardaki yeni sistemlerin etkileri, yakıt temini ve depolama sorunları nedeniyle ikinci ve üçüncü sırada yer almaktadır. Bunları rekabet baskısı (%15,2) izlerken, yeni düzenlemelere uyum (%13,1) son sırada yer almıştır. Maliyetler, dünya ekonomisi için kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu nedenle, öncelikle finansal sorunların aşılması gerekmektedir. IMO'nun 2050 hedeflerine ulaşmak, önemli yatırımlar, yeni düzenlemeler, uluslararası iş birlikleri ve büyük bir özveri gerektirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

IMO 2050 hedefleri, Analitik hiyerarşi süreci, Sıfır Emisyon, Gemi Sahipleri

Path to Zero Emissions on Maritime Transport: A Multi-Criteria Perspective on Shipowners' Challenge

Öz

The International Maritime Organization has started some studies to reduce emissions from shipping to zero by 2050 and adopted this as a policy. However, discussions continue on the feasibility of this policy. When looking at the near future targets, medium-term, and 2050 targets, ship owners, seafarers, party states, and many other stakeholders are in for tough times. In this study, the challenges awaiting ship owners within the scope of the 2050 targets were evaluated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDM). The results showed that financial issues (33.6%) are a critical challenge and that innovations will bring a significant economic burden. Operational issues (19.2%) and access to new fuels (18.9%), the impact of new systems on operations difficulties in accessing fuels, and storage issues are in the 2nd and 3rd place. They are followed by competitive pressure (15.2%), and finally, compliance with new regulations (13.1) was found. Costs are of critical importance for the world economy. Therefore, financial problems must be overcome first. Achieving IMO's 2050 goals requires significant investments, new regulations, international collaborations, and great dedication.

Anahtar Kelimeler

IMO 2050 targets, Analytical hierarchy process, Zero emissions, Ship owners

Etik Beyan

The author declares that this study complies with Research and Publication Ethics.

Kaynakça

• Ampah, J. D., Yusuf, A. A., Afrane, S., Jin, C., & Liu, H. (2021). Reviewing two decades of cleaner alternative marine fuels: Towards IMO's decarbonization of the maritime transport sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 320, 128871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128871
• Andersson, K., Brynolf, S., Hansson, J., & Grahn, M. (2020). Criteria and decision support for a sustainable choice of alternative marine fuels. Sustainability, 12(9), 3623. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093623
• Balcombe, P., Brierley, J., Lewis, C., Skatvedt, L., Speirs, J., Hawkes, A., & Staffell, I. (2019). How to decarbonise international shipping: Options for fuels, technologies and policies. Energy Conversion and Management, 182, 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.12.080
• Bilgili, L. (2023). A systematic review on the acceptance of alternative marine fuels. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 182, 113367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113367
• Bilgili, L., & Ölçer, A. I. (2024). IMO 2023 strategy—Where are we and what’s next? Marine Policy, 160, 105953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105953
• Bullock, S., Mason, J., & Larkin, A. (2022). The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping. Climate Policy, 22(3), 301–309. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1991876
• Deniz, C., & Zincir, B. (2016). Environmental and economical assessment of alternative marine fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production, 113, 438-449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.11.089
• Deng, S., & Mi, Z. (2023). A review on carbon emissions of global shipping. Marine Development, 1(4), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44312-023-00001-2
• Doelle, M., & Chircop, A. (2019). Decarbonizing international shipping: An appraisal of the IMO’s initial strategy. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 28(2), 268–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12302
• Grzelakowski, A. S., Herdzik, J., & Skiba, S. (2022). Maritime shipping decarbonization: Roadmap to meet zero-emission target in shipping as a link in the global supply chains. Energies, 15(6150), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15176150
• Hansson, J., Brynolf, S., Fridell, E., & Lehtveer, M. (2020). The potential role of ammonia as marine fuel—based on energy systems modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis. Sustainability, 12(8), 3265. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083265
• IMO. (2017). Amendments to the annex of the protocol of 1997 to amend the international convention for the prevention of pollution from ships, 1973, as modified by the protocol of 1978 relating thereto amendments to MARPOL annex VI, Resolut. MEPC 286 (71) MEPC 71/17/Add.1.
• IMO. (2020). Fourth IMO GHG study. [PDF document]. Retrieved from https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/Fourth%20IMO%20GHG%20Study%202020%20-%20Full%20report%20and%20annexes.pdf. (Date Accessed: 15 July 2024).
• IMO. (2023). Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships 2023. Retrieved from. https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/annex/MEPC%2080/Annex%2015.pdf, (Date Accessed: 20 July 2024).
• Kose, S., & Sekban, D. M. (2022). Emphasizing the importance of using cold-ironing technology by determining the share of hotelling emission value within the total emission. Transportation Safety and Environment, 4(2), tdac010. https://doi.org/10.1093/tse/tdac010
• Lee, J., Sim, M., Kim, Y., & Lee, C. (2024). Strategic Pathways to Alternative Marine Fuels: Empirical Evidence from Shipping Practices in South Korea. Sustainability, 16(6), 2412. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062412
• Manisalidis, I., Stavropoulou, E., Stavropoulos, A., & Bezirtzoglou, E. (2020). Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: a review. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00014
• Özdemir, Ü., Altinpinar, İ., & Demirel, F. B. (2018). A MCDM approach with fuzzy AHP method for occupational accidents on board. TransNav, International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 12(1), 93-98. https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.12.01.10
• Piccolo, V. (2023). GHG emissions from shipping: How to overcome persistent challenges. NUS Centre for Maritime Law Working Paper, 23(6), 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4506467
• Popp, L., & Müller, K. (2021). Technical reliability of shipboard technologies for the application of alternative fuels. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-021-00301-9
• Saaty, T. L. (1980). The analytic hierarchy process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
• Saaty, T. L. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 83-98. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSSCI.2008.017590
• Tavakoli, S., Gamlem, G. M., Kim, D., Roussanaly, S., Anantharaman, R., Yum, K. K., & Valland, A. (2024). Exploring the technical feasibility of carbon capture onboard ships. Journal of Cleaner Production, 452, 142032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142032
• Tsimplis, M. (2020). Marine pollution from shipping activities. In Maritime Law (pp. 403-464). Informa Law from Routledge.
• Tomos, B. A. D., Stamford, L., Welfle, A., & Larkin, A. (2024). Decarbonising international shipping–A life cycle perspective on alternative fuel options. Energy Conversion and Management, 299, 117848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117848
• Uğurlu, Ö., Yıldırım, U., & Başar, E. (2015). Analysis of grounding accidents caused by human error. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 23(5), 19. https://doi.org/10.6119/JMST-015-0615-1
• Uğurlu, Ö., Erol, S., & Başar, E. (2016). The analysis of life safety and economic loss in marine accidents occurring in the Turkish Straits. Maritime Policy & Management, 43(3), 356-370. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2014.1000992 UNCTAD, 2024. Review of Maritime Transport 2024. Retrieved from. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2024_en.pdf (Date Accessed: 26 December 2024).
• Wang, Y., Cao, Q., Liu, L., Wu, Y., Liu, H., Gu, Z., & Zhu, C. (2022). A review of low and zero carbon fuel technologies: Achieving ship carbon reduction targets. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 54, 102762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2022.102762
• WHO. 2024. Air Pollution. Retrieved from. https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution#tab=tab_1. (Date Accessed: 18 August 2024).
• Zhang, C., Zhu, J., Guo, H., Xue, S., Wang, X., Wang, Z., Chen, T., Yang, L., Zeng, X., & Su, P. (2024). Technical requirements for 2023 IMO GHG strategy. Sustainability, 16(2766), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16072766