Sukûk Getirisine ve İhracına Etki Eden Faktör: Türkiye Sukîk Piyasasından İçgörüler

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3, 46 - 71

Ender Baykut

Öz

2001 yılındaki ilk sukuk ihracından bu yana, gelişmiş finansal piyasalarda sukuk işlem hacimleri her geçen gün artmaktadır. Sukuk, İslami finans ilkelerini ve şeriat uyumunu benimseyen yatırımcılar tarafından tercih edilmesinin yanı sıra özellikle ABD ve AB yatırımcıları için cazip bir yatırım aracı haline gelmiştir. Tüm finans piyasalarında artan ilgiye paralel olarak Sukuk, Türkiye'nin sermaye piyasalarının derinleşmesinde de kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, enflasyonun, mevduat faiz oranının, Dolar kurunun ve sukuk ihraç büyüklüğünün, sukuk getiriler üzerindeki etkisini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktır. Ayrıca analizlerin bir parçası olarak, makroekonomik değişkenler ile sukuk ihraç büyüklüğü arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi de test edilmiştir. 2013-2024 arası dönemi kapsayan aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliği tespit etmek amacıyla Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi, buna karşın uzun ve kısa dönem katsayılarını belirlemek amacıyla da Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (Autoregressive Distributed Lag: ARDL) modeli kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, kurulan ARDL modelinin %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bunun da ötesinde, uzun dönem katsayıları değerlendirilerek, sukuk getirileri ile mevduat faizi, enflasyon ve sukuk ihraç büyüklüğü arasında pozitif yönde anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu söylenebilir. Uzun dönem katsayılarına göre sadece USD/TRY döviz kuru sukuk getirilerini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, kısa dönem katsayılarını elde etmek için geliştirilen hata düzeltme katsayısı modeli negatif ve anlamlıdır. ECM modeli, bir şokun %75'inin kısa vadede meydana geldiğini ve bu şokların uzun vadede ortadan kalkacağını göstermiştir. Ayrıca Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizine göre, Dolar kuru ve mevduat faiz oranları, sukuk ihracının büyüklüğü ile nedensellik ilişkisi olan iki faktördür. Bu çalışma makroekonomik değişkenlerin hem sukuk getirisi hem de sukuk ihracındaki önemine açıklık getirmektedir. Sukuk ihraççılarının ve yatırımcıların karar alma süreçlerinde dikkate alması gereken faktörleri vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İslami Finans, Faizsiz Menkul Kıymatler, Sukuk, Sukuk İhracı, ARDL, Nedensellik

Factors Affecting Sukuk Return and Issuance: Insight from Sukuk Market of Türkiye

Öz

Since the first sukuk issuance in 2001, sukuk transaction volumes have been increasing day by day in major financial markets. Sukuk has become an attractive investment tool, especially for US and EU investors, as well as being preferred by investors who embrace Islamic finance principles and shariah compliance. Parallel to increased attention all over the financial markets, also sukuk plays a critical role in facilitating the deepening capital markets of Türkiye. To this end, this paper aims to identify the effect of inflation, deposit interest rate, dollar currency and sukuk issuance size on sukuk return. Furthermore, as a part of the analyses, the causality relationship is tested between macroeconomic variables and sukuk issuance. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test is utilised to rigorously assess the causal relationships between variables. In contrast, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is applied to detect both short-term and long-term coefficients among the variables, employing a monthly dataset that encompasses the period from 2013 to 2024. Empirical evidence shows the constructed ARDL model is significant at the 1% significance level. On top of that, a significant positive relationship between sukuk returns and deposit interest rate, inflation, and sukuk issuance size might be stated by assessing the long-term coefficients. Only the USD/TRY exchange rate negatively affects sukuk returns as indicated by long-term coefficients. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction model is negative and significant which is developed to get the short-term coefficients. ECM model reflected that 75% of a shock occurs in the short term and these shocks will disappear in the long term. In addition, a Toda-Yamamoto causality test stated that dollar exchange rate and deposit interest rates are the two factors that have a causal relationship with the size of sukuk issuance. This study elucidates the importance of macroeconomic variables on both sukuk return and sukuk issuance. It highlights the factors that sukuk issuers and investors should consider throughout their decision-making process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Islamic Finance, Interest-Free Securities, Sukuk, Sukuk Issuance, ARDL, Causality

Kaynakça

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