Türkiye’de Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi Geçerli mi? Fourier Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Yöntemlerinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 24, 61 - 77, 10.05.2021

Süleyman Yurtkuran

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.873130

Cited By: 6

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma 1971-2018 döneminde Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi kapsamında doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, finansal gelişme, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve CO2 salımı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Çalışmada yeni geliştirilen Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme yöntemi, dinamik en küçük kareler uzun dönem tahmincisi ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır.
Bulgular: Fourier ADL yöntemine göre uzun dönemde seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemine göre doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve finansal gelişmedeki artış CO2 salımını arttırmaktadır. Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları tüketiminin ise çevre kirliliği üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının CO2 salımını arttırması Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları tüketimi, çevre kirliliğini azaltmak için arzu edilen düzeyde bulunmamaktadır. Son olarak seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek için Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü, finansal gelişmeden CO2 salımına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.
Sınırlılıklar: Bu çalışmada yalnızca çevre kirliliği göstergesi olarak CO2 salımı kullanılmıştır.
Özgünlük/Değer: Türkiye için gerçekleştirilen çalışmalarda doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin birlikte analiz edilmemiştir. Ayrıca yeni geliştirilen Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik yöntemleri kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi çalışmalarında kullanılmamıştır. Çalışmanın bu şekliyle literatüre katkı sağlayacağı öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları, Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi, Fourier, Türkiye

Is the Pollution Haven Hypothesis Valid for Turkey? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration and Causality Methods

Öz

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, financial development, renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions which applying to confirm the pollution haven hypothesis for the period of 1971-2018 in Turkey.
Design/Methodology: The study employed newly developed Fourier ADL cointegration method, the dynamic ordinary least squares long-run estimator and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test.
Findings: The empirical results of Fourier ADL method confirmed that there is a cointegration relationship between these series in the long run. In addition, the dynamic ordinary least squares results showed that foreign direct investment and financial development led to an increase in CO2 emissions. Renewable energy consumption had no effect on environmental pollution. Foreign direct investment increases CO2 emissions supports the validity of pollution haven hypothesis in Turkey. However, renewable energy consumption was not at a desirable level to reduce environmental pollution. Finally, the Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests were used to determine the causality relationship between the series. According to the causality test results; It has been determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between foreign direct investment and CO2 emission, and a unidirectional causality relationship from financial development to CO2 emission.
Limitations: In this study, only CO2 emission was used as an environmental pollution indicator.
Originality/Value: Foreign direct investment and renewable energy consumption have not been analyzed together in studies conducted in Turkey. In addition, the newly developed Fourier ADL cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality methods have not been used in pollution haven hypothesis analysis. It is believed that this study will contribute to the literature in this way.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment, Pollution Haven Hypothesis, Fourier, Turkey

Kaynakça

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